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Super League | Round 2

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LUKE LITTLER STADIUM • FRIDAY 21 FEB, 11:00 AM AEDT
Full Time
WAR

Warrington Wolves

1812
CAT

Catalans Dragons

✅ Model correct — backed Warrington Wolves at 79%

AI Win Probability

79%Warrington WolvesFavourite

Warrington Wolves

79%

Catalans Dragons

21%

AI Match Overview

Warrington Wolves are clear favourites here at 79%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Catalans Dragons. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Warrington Wolves carry a 212-point ELO rating advantage (1642 vs 1429). Recent form favours Warrington Wolves with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Catalans Dragons. The margin model predicts Warrington Wolves by 10.6 points with a combined total of 42.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Warrington Wolves to Win @1.20

Winner ✓

Edge

-4.4%

Line / Spread

Warrington Wolves +10.6 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Warrington Wolves 1-12 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Warrington Wolves
R1W

older → newer

34.2
Catalans Dragons
R1L
14.0

Avg Conceded

8.8

Warrington Wolves

17.8

Catalans Dragons

Avg Margin

25.4

Warrington Wolves

-3.8

Catalans Dragons

Run Metres

896

Warrington Wolves

788

Catalans Dragons

Clean Breaks

6.2

Warrington Wolves

1.8

Catalans Dragons

H2H History (Last 5)Warrington Wolves lead 3-2
Apr 2026WAR 22 - 38 CAT
Aug 2025WAR 30 - 22 CAT
Jul 2025WAR 24 - 20 CAT
Feb 2024WAR 24 - 32 CAT
May 2024WAR 16 - 8 CAT
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

WAR
1642Overall1429
CAT
ELO difference: +212 in favour of Warrington Wolves

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

866Forwards911
Best: 1052CAT +45Best: 1016
912Backs884
Best: 1042WAR +28Best: 973
809Halves837
Best: 809CAT +27Best: 837
1115Hooker1000
WAR +115

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WAR
Stat
CAT
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
34.2pts
Avg Score
14.0pts
8.8pts
Avg Conceded
17.8pts
25.4pts
Avg Margin
-3.8pts
896.0m
Run Metres
788.4m
6.2
Clean Breaks
1.8
210.8
Tackles
193.4
5.6
Errors
6.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Wolves
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Dragons
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Wolves
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Wolves
5
Halves Control9.0%
Dragons
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
7
H2H History6.0%
Dragons

Model Confidence

79%

Warrington Wolves predicted to win by 11 points

Predicted total: 42 · Line: +10.6

3/4 match predictions correct