# Warrington Wolves v Catalans Dragons — Super League Round 2 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Warrington Wolves 18 – 12 Catalans Dragons

_Warrington Wolves howl past Catalans Dragons in a tight one._

Half time: 6 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Warrington Wolves 79% / Catalans Dragons 21% · Luke Littler Stadium · Fri, 21 Feb, 11:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Warrington Wolves: Toby King (28' 1st Tipped 🎯), Danny Walker (49'), Matthew Dufty (67') · Catalans Dragons: Matthieu Laguerre (38'), Matthieu Laguerre (72')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warrington Wolves | 79% | Won |
| Catalans Dragons | 21% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 10.6 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Warrington Wolves vs Catalans Dragons Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 2 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:10 pm_

Warrington Wolves 18–12 Catalans Dragons in Super League Round 2 at Luke Littler Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Two very different ideas about how to win a footy match were on show at Luke Littler Stadium, and the one built on tidiness got there. Warrington Wolves beat Catalans Dragons 18-12, not by outplaying them, but by not beating themselves.

Look at the shape of it. Catalans ran for 883 metres, same as Warrington. They broke the line seven times to two, busted 25 tackles to 19, and threw the ball around with 19 offloads against Warrington's four. By every measure of ambition and go-forward, the Dragons had the better night. And they still lost.

Why? Errors. Catalans coughed up the ball 11 times to Warrington's seven, and in a match this tight, that gap is the whole story. All that metreage and all those line breaks mean nothing if you keep handing back possession. Warrington didn't need to create as much, because they didn't need to recover from as much. Penalties were even, three apiece, so it wasn't a discipline issue either. It came down to who held the footy when it counted.

The scoreboard backs it up. Arthur Mourgue's early penalty goal put Catalans up 2-0 in the fourth minute, and it took until the 28th for Toby King to get Warrington's first try, with Josh Thewlis's conversion making it 6-2. Laguerre levelled it just before the break, 6-6, and at half-time the game was exactly as even as the run-metre count suggested.

Then Warrington turned patience into points. Danny Walker crossed in the 49th minute, Thewlis converted for 12-6, and by the 67th it was Matthew Dufty finishing off another set for 18-6. Three tries from limited ball, each one landing when Warrington needed it. Laguerre grabbed his second in the 72nd to make it 18-12, but there wasn't time left for Catalans to find another one.

Warrington's hooker rating of 1115 against Catalans' 1000 is worth noting given how much of their scoring came from close range, and the backs edge, 912 to 884, lines up with the way Warrington's outside men finished their sets. Catalans' forward pack rated higher, 911 to 866, and their halves too, 837 to 809, which fits with them having more ball in dangerous areas. They just didn't hang onto it often enough to cash that in.

Form lines pointed this way before kick-off.

**Key Match Stats**

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 883 | Run metres | 883 |
| 2 | Line breaks | **7** |
| 19 | Tackle busts | **25** |
| 4 | Offloads | **19** |
| **7** | Errors | 11 |
| 3 | Penalties conceded | 3 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 2 |
| 3/3 | Goals | 2/3 |
| 3 | Penalties Conceded | 3 |
| 7 | Errors | 11 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Warrington Wolves to win at 79% probability. The predicted margin of 10.6 was reasonable against the actual 6-point result. The model went 4/15 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (23/100) — penalties Warrington Wolves 3 · Catalans Dragons 3.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warrington Wolves to win — model probability 78.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Warrington Wolves — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Warrington Wolves 1-12 — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Warrington Wolves by 11 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Warrington Wolves here: 79% to see off Catalans Dragons. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Warrington Wolves sit 212 ELO points clear, 1642 to 1429. Form leans Warrington Wolves' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Catalans Dragons.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Warrington Wolves by 10.6, with the two sides combining for about 42. Warrington Wolves to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 34.2pts | Avg Score | 14.0pts |
| 8.8pts | Avg Conceded | 17.8pts |
| 25.4pts | Avg Margin | -3.8pts |
| 896.0m | Run Metres | 788.4m |
| 6.2 | Clean Breaks | 1.8 |
| 210.8 | Tackles | 193.4 |
| 5.6 | Errors | 6.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warrington Wolves | R26 W · R27 W · W · L · R1 W | 34.2 |
| Catalans Dragons | R24 L · R25 L · R26 W · R27 W · R1 L | 14.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Warrington Wolves lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R16 | Warrington Wolves | 18 – 16 | Catalans Dragons | Warrington Wolves 73% ✓ |
| 2026 | R8 | Catalans Dragons | 38 – 22 | Warrington Wolves | Catalans Dragons 55% ✓ |
| 2025 | R22 | Warrington Wolves | 30 – 22 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |
| 2025 | R18 | Catalans Dragons | 20 – 24 | Warrington Wolves | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Warrington Wolves | 24 – 32 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the right edge: Super League's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (0.9 tries/game) runs at a Catalans Dragons defence ranked 3rd there (0.48 conceded/game). Key man: Thewlis, 12 tries in that channel this season.
- Catalans Dragons' best path is the right edge: Super League's 7th-ranked right edge attack (0.63 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 2nd there (0.45 conceded/game). Key man: Davies, 9 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Warrington Wolves | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.03/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.59/g (def 5th) | 0.44/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 0.44/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 0.86/g (att 7th) · concedes 0.66/g (def 4th (strong)) | 0.81/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 1/g (def 6th) |
| Right | 0.9/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.45/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 0.63/g (att 7th) · concedes 0.48/g (def 3rd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 10th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 5th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 7 | 3 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 135m/g | 47m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.9/g | 1.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.7% | 88.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 51 · 30 | 35 · 25 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 313m/g | 394m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 12.2/g | 12.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.4/g | 1.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.1% | 83.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 10th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 9th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 5 | 4 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 240m/g | 200m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.3/g | 3.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 0.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.9% | 92.9% |

**Who scores on Catalans Dragons** — Five-Eighths 0.26/g (lg 0.18) +44% · Hookers 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30% · Props 0.16/g (lg 0.13) +23%
**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — Props 0.17/g (lg 0.13) +31% · Halfbacks 0.19/g (lg 0.17) +12% · 2nd Rows 0.26/g (lg 0.28) -7%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Luke Littler Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Warrington Wolves** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Dufty | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 67' |
| 2 | Josh Thewlis | WG | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 4/8g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.95 AI 36% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Toby King | CE | 1 in 1g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·1) | 3/17g | 0/0g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.46 AI 44% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $20.53 AI 14% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 28' |
| 4 | Arron Lindop | CE | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.72 AI 40% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $22.37 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Matty Ashton | WG | 1 in 1g | 16/10g (2·0·1·1·1·3·3·2·2·1) | 3/9g | 0/0g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.99 AI 53% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.20 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Oli Leyland | 5/8 | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 7 | George Williams | HB | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 6/18g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.35 AI 31% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Luke Yates | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Danny Walker | HK | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/0g | 6% | — | 🏉 49' |
| 10 | Paul Vaughan | PR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Dan Russell | 2R | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 12 | Lachlan Fitzgibbon | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Ben Currie | LK | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/16g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Powell | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/19g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Joe Philbin | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/17g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | James Harrison | INT | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.33 AI 32% ✗ No try | — |
| 17 | Jordy Crowther | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Catalans Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arthur Mourgue | FB | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 2/4g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| 2 | Tommy Makinson | WG | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·1·2·0) | 6/7g | 0/0g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.92 AI 26% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $30.82 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Arthur Romano | CE | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (0·2·0·0·1·0·1·1·1·0) | 2/8g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| 4 | Matthieu Laguerre | CE | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 17% | — | 🏉 38' 72' |
| 5 | Nick Cotric | WG | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 6 | Cesar Rouge | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 7 | Luke Keary | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Tevita Pangai Junior | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Ben Garcia | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Julian Bousquet | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 10% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.55 AI 21% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $35.21 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 11 | Bayley Sironen | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Elliott Whitehead | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Oliver Partington | LK | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Alrix Da Costa | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Jordan Dezaria | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Paul Seguier | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Tariq Sims | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Warrington Wolves 1642 · Catalans Dragons 1429 · ELO difference: 212 in favour of Warrington Wolves

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Catalans Dragons |

**Model Confidence: 79%** — Warrington Wolves predicted to win by 11 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 2/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:10 UTC (latest tip update)