# Wakefield Trinity v Hull KR — Super League Round 2 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wakefield Trinity 12 – 14 Hull KR

_Hull KR hold off a fast-finishing Wakefield Trinity._

Half time: 2 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wakefield Trinity 27% / Hull KR 73% · The Diy Kitchens Stadium · Thu, 20 Feb, 11:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Wakefield Trinity: Tom Johnstone (52' Tipped ⚡), Oliver Pratt (76' Tipped ⚡) · Hull KR: Tom Davies (6' 1st), Mikey Lewis (57' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | 73% | Won |
| Wakefield Trinity | 27% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.9 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wakefield Trinity vs Hull KR Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 2 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:09 pm_

Wakefield Trinity 12–14 Hull KR in Super League Round 2 at The Diy Kitchens Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Wakefield Trinity actually won the offload count, 8 to 4, and gave away fewer penalties, 2 to 5. On another day that discipline edge is the difference. It wasn't enough on this one.

The problem was everything else. Wakefield managed just 937 run metres to Hull KR's 1,245, and one line break all night against four for the visitors. When you're not getting quick metres and you're not breaking the line, you're stuck grinding through sets with the ball doing nothing, and that's exactly the pattern the scoreboard tells. Wakefield conceded early, Tom Davies crossing in the 6th minute and Rhyse Martin adding the extras a minute later, and the home side spent the rest of the match chasing that six-point start.

Wakefield did find some second-half life. Max Jowitt's penalty goal just before the break got them to 2-6, and when Tom Johnstone scored in the 52nd minute followed by Jowitt's conversion, it was locked up at 8-8. For about three minutes, Wakefield had clawed level after trailing the whole match. That's as good as it got.

Hull KR answered inside five minutes. Mikey Lewis scored in the 57th, Martin converted, and it was 8-14. Oliver Pratt's try in the 76th minute got Wakefield back within two, but there was no time left to find another set.

Hull KR's win was built on the areas the ratings said they'd win. Their halves were rated 955 against Wakefield's 869 coming in, and their hooker spot at 1,000 dwarfed Wakefield's 626. That kind of gap at hooker and in the halves tends to show up exactly where this game was decided: quick play-the-balls, sharper support running, more metres after contact. Nineteen tackle busts to sixteen and those four line breaks are the scoreboard version of that gap.

Form lined up too. Hull KR arrived on four wins from their last five, averaging 1174.4 running metres a game to Wakefield's 1046, and they backed that up here with over 300 more metres on the night. Wakefield had won just one of their own last five, and their average margin coming in was minus two. They finished this one at minus two again. Consistent, in its own grim way.

Alphr's model had Hull KR favourites at 73 percent, with a predicted margin of 9.9 points. The actual margin was 2, so the model had the right side but overstated the gap, which the second-half comeback partly explains. It also called a combined total of 47 points; the game produced 26, twenty-one fewer, in what turned into a much tighter arm-wrestle than either side's attacking stats suggested it might be. The model finished 5 from 15 on this one, though it did land the 1-12 margin band.

Wakefield leave with some offensive signs of life and a discipline edge that didn't translate to points. Hull KR leave with the two points and a stat sheet, more metres, more line breaks, more tackle busts, that backs up why the ratings had them in front before a ball was kicked.

**Key Match Stats**

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 937 | Run metres | **1,245** |
| 1 | Line breaks | **4** |
| 16 | Tackle busts | **19** |
| **8** | Offloads | 4 |
| 10 | Errors | **8** |
| **2** | Penalties conceded | 5 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 2 |
| 2/3 | Goals | 3/3 |
| 2 | Penalties Conceded | 5 |
| 10 | Errors | 8 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hull KR to win at 73% probability. The predicted margin of 9.9 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. The game's 26 points came in 21 points lower than the predicted 47. The model went 5/15 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (52/100) — penalties Wakefield Trinity 2 · Hull KR 5.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull KR to win — model probability 73.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hull KR — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hull KR 1-12 — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hull KR by 10 · Predicted total: 47

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Hull KR here: 73% to see off Wakefield Trinity. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hull KR sit 245 ELO points clear, 1678 to 1432. Form leans Hull KR's way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Wakefield Trinity.

Hull KR own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Hull KR by 9.9, with the two sides combining for about 47. Hull KR to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 14.0pts | Avg Score | 16.2pts |
| 12.0pts | Avg Conceded | 10.2pts |
| 2.0pts | Avg Margin | 6.0pts |
| 1046.0m | Run Metres | 1174.4m |
| 3.0 | Clean Breaks | 3.4 |
| 306.0 | Tackles | 313.0 |
| 7.0 | Errors | 8.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wakefield Trinity | R1 W | 14.0 |
| Hull KR | R26 W · R27 W · W · L · R1 W | 16.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wakefield Trinity lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R18 | Hull KR | 6 – 20 | Wakefield Trinity | Hull KR 55% ✗ |
| 2026 | R13 | Wakefield Trinity | 26 – 24 | Hull KR | Hull KR 79% ✗ |
| 2025 | R26 | Wakefield Trinity | 28 – 12 | Hull KR | not priced |
| 2025 | R16 | Hull KR | 34 – 10 | Wakefield Trinity | not priced |
| 2023 | R27 | Wakefield Trinity | 12 – 56 | Hull KR | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 0 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Diy Kitchens Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wakefield Trinity** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Jowitt | FB | 2 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·2) | 2/7g | 0/0g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.18 AI 33% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $25.62 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Lachlan Walmsley | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.08 AI 35% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $24.90 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Oliver Pratt | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.27 AI 23% ✓ Scored | 🏉 76' |
| 4 | Corey Hall | CE | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 5 | Tom Johnstone | WG | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·1·1·0) | 12/14g | 0/0g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.77 AI 39% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $22.73 AI 18% ✗ Not first | 🏉 52' |
| 6 | Olly Russell | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Mason Lino | HB | 1 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | Mike McMeeken | PR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/17g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Thomas Doyle | HK | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Caleb Hamiln-Uele | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Matty Storton | 2R | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 12 | Jack Croft | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Jay Pitts | LK | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Harvey Smith | INT | no games | 0/1g (0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Isaiah Vagana | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Josh Rourke | INT | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (1·0·1·2·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 41% | — | — |
| 17 | Caius Faatili | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

**Hull KR** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Niall Evalds | FB | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/14g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 2 | Tom Davies | WG | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 8/11g | 0/0g | 36% | — | 🏉 6' |
| 3 | Jack Broadbent | CE | no games | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 4 | Oliver Gildart | CE | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 5 | Joe Burgess | WG | 3 in 1g | 12/10g (0·2·0·4·1·0·1·1·0·3) | 12/9g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.21 AI 33% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $25.81 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Mikey Lewis | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (1·0·1·1·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.40 AI 31% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $27.13 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 57' |
| 7 | Peta Hiku | HB | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 43% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.42 AI 31% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Sauaso Sue | PR | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 9 | Michael McIlorum | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Jared Waerea-Hargreaves | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Rhyse Martin | 2R | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·3·0·0·1·0) | 1/8g | 0/0g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.17 AI 24% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | James Batchelor | 2R | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Elliot Minchella | LK | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 14 | Jez Litten | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 15 | Dean Hadley | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Jai Whitbread | INT | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 17 | Kelepi Tanginoa | INT | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (1·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wakefield Trinity 1432 · Hull KR 1678 · ELO difference: 245 in favour of Hull KR

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Wakefield Trinity | Hull KR | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 828 (best 1028) | 864 (best 1087) | Hull KR +36 |
| Backs | 877 (best 1002) | 881 (best 1069) | Hull KR +5 |
| Halves | 869 (best 869) | 955 (best 955) | Hull KR +86 |
| Hooker | 626 | 1000 | Hull KR +374 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Hull KR |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Hull KR |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Hull KR |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Hull KR |

**Model Confidence: 73%** — Hull KR predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 47 pts

**Record:** 2/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:09 UTC (latest tip update)