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Super League | Round 2

alphr.com.au

THE DIY KITCHENS STADIUM • THURSDAY 20 FEB, 11:00 AM AEDT
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WAK

Wakefield Trinity

1214
HKR

Hull KR

✅ Model correct — backed Hull KR at 73%

AI Win Probability

73%Hull KRFavourite

Wakefield Trinity

27%

Hull KR

73%

AI Match Overview

Hull KR are clear favourites here at 73%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Wakefield Trinity. The model sees Hull KR ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Hull KR carry a 245-point ELO rating advantage (1678 vs 1432). Recent form favours Hull KR with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Wakefield Trinity. The margin model predicts Hull KR by 9.9 points with a combined total of 47.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Hull KR to Win @1.22

Winner ✓

Edge

-8.8%

Line / Spread

Hull KR -9.9 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Hull KR 1-12 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Wakefield Trinity
R1W

older → newer

14.2
Hull KR
R1W
16.2

Avg Conceded

27.6

Wakefield Trinity

10.2

Hull KR

Avg Margin

-13.4

Wakefield Trinity

6.0

Hull KR

Run Metres

698

Wakefield Trinity

1174

Hull KR

Clean Breaks

2.2

Wakefield Trinity

3.4

Hull KR

H2H History (Last 5)Hull KR lead 4-1
Sep 2025WAK 28 - 12 HKR
Jun 2025WAK 10 - 34 HKR
Sep 2023WAK 12 - 56 HKR
Jun 2023WAK 12 - 28 HKR
Apr 2023WAK 6 - 34 HKR
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

WAK
1432Overall1678
HKR
ELO difference: -245 in favour of Hull KR

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

828Forwards864
Best: 1028HKR +36Best: 1087
877Backs881
Best: 1002EvenBest: 1069
869Halves955
Best: 869HKR +86Best: 955
626Hooker1000
HKR +374

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WAK
Stat
HKR
1.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
14.2pts
Avg Score
16.2pts
27.6pts
Avg Conceded
10.2pts
-13.4pts
Avg Margin
6.0pts
698.0m
Run Metres
1174.4m
2.2
Clean Breaks
3.4
203.4
Tackles
313.0
6.4
Errors
8.6

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
KR
2
Forward Pack12.0%
KR
3
Backline Quality10.0%
KR
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
KR
5
Halves Control9.0%
KR
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
7
H2H History6.0%
KR

Model Confidence

73%

Hull KR predicted to win by 10 points

Predicted total: 47 · Line: -9.9

3/4 match predictions correct