# Salford Red Devils v Leeds Rhinos — Super League Round 2 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Salford Red Devils 6 – 32 Leeds Rhinos

_Leeds Rhinos put Salford Red Devils to the sword._

Half time: 6 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Salford Red Devils 47% / Leeds Rhinos 53% · Salford Community Stadium · Sat, 22 Feb, 11:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Salford Red Devils: Kallum Watkins (1' 1st) · Leeds Rhinos: Riley Lumb (17' Tipped ⚡), Morgan Gannon (23'), Riley Lumb (32' Tipped ⚡), Ash Handley (49' Tipped ⚡), James Bentley (59'), Ryan Hall (71')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | 53% | Won |
| Salford Red Devils | 47% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 0.4 predicted → 26 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Salford Red Devils vs Leeds Rhinos Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 2 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:10 pm_

Salford Red Devils 6–32 Leeds Rhinos in Super League Round 2 at Salford Community Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Kallum Watkins had Salford up 6-0 inside three minutes, and for a quarter of an hour that scoreline just sat there. Then Leeds Rhinos found their gear and didn't let go.

From the 17th minute to half-time, Leeds scored four unanswered times. Riley Lumb crossed twice either side of tries to Morgan Gannon and Jake Connor's boot doing the rest, and by the break it was 16-6. Salford's opening try was the last bit of good news they'd get all night.

Final score: Leeds Rhinos 32, Salford Red Devils 6. The second half was just more of the same tune, Ash Handley, James Bentley and Ryan Hall all crossing between the 49th and 71st minutes, Connor slotting the extras each time. Once Leeds hit the front they never looked like giving it back.

The stat sheet explains why. Leeds ran for 1,055 metres to Salford's 638, a gap that lines up with the form both sides brought in, Leeds averaging 1,030.6 metres a game across their last five against Salford's 591.6. Leeds also won the collision battle with 35 tackle busts to 27 and held onto the ball far better, just 4 errors to Salford's 7. When one side is running that hard and holding the pill, the other side spends the night defending, and defending eventually cracks.

Salford did have their moments. Five line breaks to Leeds' two says the footwork was there, and nine offloads to six shows some enterprise. Problem is line breaks without field position or completion rate don't mean much when you're conceding 638 metres to over a thousand and giving away seven penalties to three. Pressure like that adds up to more than a few clean breaks can fix.

The positional numbers pre-match flagged exactly where this was going to be decided. Salford actually rated stronger in the backs, 1040 to 784, and that Watkins try in the first minute looked like it might back that up. But Leeds' hooker rating of 1140 against Salford's 662 was always going to matter in a game about go-forward and ruck speed, and it showed all night in the metres column.

Alphr's model had Leeds as 53% favourites and picked the right side, ratings of 1482 to 1436 with an expected win of just 0.4 points. That part held up fine. The margin did not. A predicted margin of under a point turned into an actual 26, which is as wrong as a margin call gets. The total score prediction of 42 wasn't far off the actual 38, so at least the shape of the arm wrestle was in the ballpark even if the final gap wasn't.

Leeds came in on the same WWLLL form line as Salford but with better underlying numbers everywhere that counts, more metres, fewer errors conceded, a stronger average margin. On this occasion the form guide did what form guides are supposed to do. Salford's early sprint was a false start, nothing more.

**Key Match Stats**

| Salford Red Devils | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 638 | Run metres | **1,055** |
| **5** | Line breaks | 2 |
| 27 | Tackle busts | **35** |
| **9** | Offloads | 6 |
| 7 | Errors | **4** |
| 7 | Penalties conceded | **3** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Salford Red Devils | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 5 |
| 1/1 | Goals | 4/8 |
| 7 | Penalties Conceded | 3 |
| 7 | Errors | 4 |
| 1 | Sin Bins | 0 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leeds Rhinos to win at 53% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 0.4 but the actual margin was 26 points. Total score prediction of 42 was close to the actual 38, within 4 points. Leeds Rhinos led 6–16 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 26. The model went 3/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (28/100) — penalties Salford Red Devils 7 · Leeds Rhinos 3.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leeds Rhinos to win — model probability 53.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Leeds Rhinos — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Leeds Rhinos 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Leeds Rhinos by 0 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Salford Red Devils and Leeds Rhinos. The model can't split them, landing on Leeds Rhinos at 53%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leeds Rhinos sit 46 ELO points clear, 1482 to 1436.

Leeds Rhinos own the matchup too, leading 3 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Halves Control. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Salford Red Devils | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 18.2pts | Avg Score | 23.4pts |
| 35.2pts | Avg Conceded | 20.8pts |
| -17.0pts | Avg Margin | 2.6pts |
| 591.6m | Run Metres | 1030.6m |
| 3.8 | Clean Breaks | 3.8 |
| 163.0 | Tackles | 289.6 |
| 6.4 | Errors | 8.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Salford Red Devils | R25 W · R26 W · R27 L · L · R1 L | 18.2 |
| Leeds Rhinos | R24 W · R25 W · R26 L · R27 L · R1 L | 23.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Leeds Rhinos lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R19 | Leeds Rhinos | 42 – 6 | Salford Red Devils |
| 2025 | R7 | Salford Red Devils | 0 – 28 | Leeds Rhinos |
| 2024 | R20 | Salford Red Devils | 22 – 16 | Leeds Rhinos |
| 2024 | R1 | Leeds Rhinos | 22 – 16 | Salford Red Devils |
| 2023 | R18 | Salford Red Devils | 14 – 16 | Leeds Rhinos |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Salford Red Devils' best path is the right edge: Super League's 4th-ranked right edge attack (0.79 tries/game) runs at a Leeds Rhinos defence ranked 7th there (0.67 conceded/game). Key man: Macdonald, 12 tries in that channel this season.
- Leeds Rhinos' best path is the left edge: Super League's 3rd-ranked left edge attack (0.89 tries/game) runs at a Salford Red Devils defence ranked 8th there (0.79 conceded/game). Key man: Handley, 14 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Salford Red Devils | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.75/g (att 6th) · concedes 0.79/g (def 8th) | 0.89/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.33/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Middle | 0.86/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.46/g (def 9th (weak)) | 0.96/g (att 5th) · concedes 1.07/g (def 8th) |
| Right | 0.79/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.75/g (def 8th) | 0.63/g (att 7th) · concedes 0.67/g (def 7th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Salford Red Devils | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 10th (weak) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 20 | 10 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 138m/g | 140m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.3/g | 3.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.9% | 89.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Salford Red Devils | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th (weak) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 32 · 46 | 37 · 30 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 363m/g | 390m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.7/g | 14.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.6/g | 1.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85% | 81.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Salford Red Devils | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 5th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 18 · 9 | 13 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 285m/g | 265m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.1/g | 7.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.1% | 91.4% |

**Who scores on Leeds Rhinos** — Hookers 0.1/g (lg 0.1) +0% · Locks 0.05/g (lg 0.05) +0% · Fullbacks 0.18/g (lg 0.22) -18%
**Who scores on Salford Red Devils** — 2nd Rows 0.45/g (lg 0.28) +61% · Five-Eighths 0.25/g (lg 0.18) +39% · Wingers 1.25/g (lg 0.93) +34%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Salford Community Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Salford Red Devils** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Brierley | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Nene Macdonald | WG | no games | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.49 AI 30% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $27.80 AI 19% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Esan Marsters | CE | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 4 | Tim Lafai | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Deon Cross | WG | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 6 | Marc Sneyd | 5/8 | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/23g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 7 | Jayden Nikorima | HB | no games | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 19% | — | — |
| 8 | Chris Hill | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Chris Atkin | HK | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Brad Singleton | PR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Shane Wright | 2R | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 12 | Kallum Watkins | 2R | no games | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/5g | 0/0g | 14% | — | 🏉 1' |
| 13 | Joe Shorrocks | LK | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Justin Sangare | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Chris Hankinson | INT | no games | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 16 | Matty Foster | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Jack Ormondroyd | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

**Leeds Rhinos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jake Connor | FB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/20g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 2 | Riley Lumb | WG | 0 in 1g | 2/6g (0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.56 AI 42% ✓ Scored | 🏉 17' 32' |
| 3 | Harry Newman | CE | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 3/8g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.78 AI 39% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Ash Handley | CE | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (1·1·1·1·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 10/18g | 0/0g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 57% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.83 AI 15% ✗ Not first | 🏉 49' |
| 5 | Ryan Hall | WG | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (1·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 9/11g | 0/0g | 38% | — | 🏉 71' |
| 6 | Matt Frawley | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.70 AI 28% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Brodie Croft | HB | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.29 AI 47% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $19.30 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Cooper Jenkins | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Andy Ackers | HK | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Keenan Palasia | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | James Bentley | 2R | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/0g | 14% | — | 🏉 59' |
| 12 | James Mcdonnell | 2R | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Cam Smith | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Jarrod O'Connor | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Lisone | INT | 1 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 12% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.42 AI 45% ✗ No try | — |
| 16 | Morgan Gannon | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 23' |
| 17 | Tom Holroyd | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Leeds Rhinos hold the ELO advantage (1482 vs 1436), but the market favours Salford Red Devils (@1.71). The model sides with ELO, Leeds Rhinos predicted to win despite longer odds.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Salford Red Devils 1436 · Leeds Rhinos 1482 · ELO difference: 46 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Salford Red Devils |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 53%** — Leeds Rhinos favoured in a tight, low-margin contest · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:10 UTC (latest tip update)