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Super League | Round 2

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SALFORD COMMUNITY STADIUM • SATURDAY 22 FEB, 11:00 AM AEDT
Full Time
SAL

Salford Red Devils

632
LEE

Leeds Rhinos

✅ Model correct — backed Leeds Rhinos at 53%

AI Win Probability

53%Leeds RhinosFavourite

Salford Red Devils

47%

Leeds Rhinos

53%

AI Match Overview

This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Leeds Rhinos a marginal 53% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees Leeds Rhinos ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. Leeds Rhinos carry a 46-point ELO rating advantage (1482 vs 1436).

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Leeds Rhinos to Win @2.40

Winner ✓

Edge

+11.8%

Line / Spread

Leeds Rhinos -0.4 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Leeds Rhinos Draw @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Salford Red Devils
R1L

older → newer

18.2
Leeds Rhinos
R1L
23.4

Avg Conceded

35.2

Salford Red Devils

20.8

Leeds Rhinos

Avg Margin

-17.0

Salford Red Devils

2.6

Leeds Rhinos

Run Metres

592

Salford Red Devils

1031

Leeds Rhinos

Clean Breaks

3.8

Salford Red Devils

3.8

Leeds Rhinos

H2H History (Last 5)Leeds Rhinos lead 4-1
Jul 2025SAL 6 - 42 LEE
Apr 2025SAL 0 - 28 LEE
Jul 2024SAL 22 - 16 LEE
Mar 2024SAL 16 - 22 LEE
Jul 2023SAL 14 - 16 LEE
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

ELO–Market Disagreement

Leeds Rhinos hold the ELO advantage (1482 vs 1436), but the market favours Salford Red Devils (@1.71).

The model sides with ELO, Leeds Rhinos predicted to win despite longer odds.

📊Team ELO Ratings

SAL
1436Overall1482
LEE
ELO difference: -46 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

831Forwards832
Best: 1026EvenBest: 1022
1040Backs784
Best: 1068SAL +257Best: 862
926Halves955
Best: 926LEE +29Best: 955
662Hooker1140
LEE +478

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

SAL
Stat
LEE
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
18.2pts
Avg Score
23.4pts
35.2pts
Avg Conceded
20.8pts
-17.0pts
Avg Margin
2.6pts
591.6m
Run Metres
1030.6m
3.8
Clean Breaks
3.8
163.0
Tackles
289.6
6.4
Errors
8.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Rhinos
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Rhinos
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Devils
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
5
Halves Control9.0%
Rhinos
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
7
H2H History6.0%

Model Confidence

53%

Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 0 points

Predicted total: 42 · Line: -0.4

2/4 match predictions correct