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Super League | Round 2

alphr.com.au

MKM STADIUM • FRIDAY 21 FEB, 11:00 AM AEDT
Full Time
HUL

Hull

446
WIG

Wigan Warriors

✅ Model correct — backed Wigan Warriors at 76%

AI Win Probability

76%Wigan WarriorsFavourite

Hull

24%

Wigan Warriors

76%

AI Match Overview

Wigan Warriors are clear favourites here at 76%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Hull. The model sees Wigan Warriors ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Wigan Warriors carry a 356-point ELO rating advantage (1679 vs 1322). Recent form favours Wigan Warriors with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Hull. The margin model predicts Wigan Warriors by 5.0 points with a combined total of 45.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Wigan Warriors to Win @1.22

Winner ✓

Edge

-6.1%

Line / Spread

Wigan Warriors -5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Wigan Warriors 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Hull
R1W

older → newer

11.6
Wigan Warriors
R1L
29.8

Avg Conceded

38.6

Hull

0.6

Wigan Warriors

Avg Margin

-27.0

Hull

29.2

Wigan Warriors

Run Metres

710

Hull

1352

Wigan Warriors

Clean Breaks

1.2

Hull

6.4

Wigan Warriors

H2H History (Last 5)Wigan Warriors lead 3-2
Mar 2026HUL 6 - 34 WIG
Jul 2025HUL 32 - 12 WIG
May 2025HUL 12 - 36 WIG
Aug 2024HUL 4 - 22 WIG
Jul 2024HUL 24 - 22 WIG
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

HUL
1322Overall1679
WIG
ELO difference: -356 in favour of Wigan Warriors

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

862Forwards937
Best: 1072WIG +75Best: 1268
758Backs873
Best: 837WIG +115Best: 1055
1313Halves872
Best: 1313HUL +441Best: 872
600Hooker1318
WIG +718

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HUL
Stat
WIG
1.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
11.6pts
Avg Score
29.8pts
38.6pts
Avg Conceded
0.6pts
-27.0pts
Avg Margin
29.2pts
709.6m
Run Metres
1351.6m
1.2
Clean Breaks
6.4
246.0
Tackles
304.6
7.4
Errors
7.8

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Warriors
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Warriors
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Warriors
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Warriors
5
Halves Control9.0%
Hull
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Warriors
7
H2H History6.0%
Warriors

Model Confidence

76%

Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 5 points

Predicted total: 45 · Line: -5.0

3/4 match predictions correct