# Hull FC v Wigan Warriors — Super League Round 2 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hull FC 4 – 46 Wigan Warriors

_Wigan Warriors put Hull FC to the sword._

Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hull FC 24% / Wigan Warriors 76% · MKM Stadium · Fri, 21 Feb, 11:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Hull FC: Lewis Martin (42') · Wigan Warriors: Jai Field (7' 1st Tipped ⚡), Abbas Miski (22' Tipped ⚡), Patrick Mago (31'), Jai Field (37' 1st Tipped ⚡), Tom Forber (51'), Jake Wardle (60'), Jai Field (65' 1st Tipped ⚡), Bevan French (73' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | 76% | Won |
| Hull FC | 24% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.0 predicted → 42 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hull FC vs Wigan Warriors Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 2 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:10 pm_

Hull FC 4–46 Wigan Warriors in Super League Round 2 at MKM Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Wigan Warriors overran Hull FC 46–4 at MKM Stadium.

Jai Field opened the scoring; Hull FC crossed through Lewis Martin; Wigan Warriors scored through Jai Field (3), Abbas Miski, Patrick Mago, Tom Forber, Jake Wardle and Bevan French.

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wigan Warriors to win at 76% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.0 but the actual margin was 42 points. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 50, within 5 points. The model went 4/15 on this match.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wigan Warriors to win — model probability 75.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wigan Warriors — model probability 75.8% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Wigan Warriors 1-12 — model probability 75.8% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Wigan Warriors by 5 · Predicted total: 45

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wigan Warriors lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R16 | Hull FC | 16 – 20 | Wigan Warriors | Wigan Warriors 79% ✓ |
| 2026 | R2 | Wigan Warriors | 34 – 6 | Hull FC | Wigan Warriors 80% ✓ |
| 2025 | R19 | Wigan Warriors | 12 – 32 | Hull FC | not priced |
| 2025 | R9 | Hull FC | 12 – 36 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |
| 2024 | R23 | Wigan Warriors | 22 – 4 | Hull FC | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Hull's best path is the left edge: Super League's 9th-ranked left edge attack (0.59 tries/game) runs at a Wigan Warriors defence ranked 2nd there (0.38 conceded/game). Key man: Martin, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Wigan Warriors' best path is the middle: Super League's 3rd-ranked middle attack (1.83 tries/game) runs at a Hull defence ranked 11th there (1.96 conceded/game). Key man: French, 18 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Hull FC | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.59/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 0.96/g (def 9th (weak)) | 1.55/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.38/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Middle | 0.37/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.96/g (def 11th (weak)) | 1.83/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.45/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Right | 0.48/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.22/g (def 12th (weak)) | 0.9/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.38/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Hull FC | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 23 | 27 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 54m/g | 130m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 1/g | 4.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.1/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.8% | 88.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Hull FC | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 25 · 55 | 72 · 20 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 281m/g | 539m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.9/g | 17.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 3.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80.5% | 84.9% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Hull FC | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 16 | 15 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 305m/g | 349m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.6/g | 8.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.7% | 93.1% |

**Who scores on Wigan Warriors** — Props 0.12/g (lg 0.13) -8% · 2nd Rows 0.25/g (lg 0.28) -11% · Halfbacks 0.13/g (lg 0.17) -24%
**Who scores on Hull** — Fullbacks 0.3/g (lg 0.22) +36% · Hookers 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30% · Five-Eighths 0.22/g (lg 0.18) +22%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MKM Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hull** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jordan Rapana | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Harvey Barron | WG | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·2·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 5/11g | 32% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Ed Chamberlain | CE | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/6g | 6% | — | — |
| 4 | Tom Briscoe | CE | 1 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/18g | 1/8g | 30% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Lewis Martin | WG | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 5/12g | 34% | — | 🏉 42' |
| 6 | Cade Cust | 5/8 | 2 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Aidan Sezer | HB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | Herman Ese'ese | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/11g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Denive Balmforth | HK | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 4/11g | 20% | — | — |
| 10 | Yusuf Aydin | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/11g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Brad Fash | 2R | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 2/33g | 6% | — | — |
| 12 | Jordan Lane | 2R | 1 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/12g | 5/43g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | John Asiata | LK | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Hugo Salabio | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | William Gardiner | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Will Hutchinson | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Ligi Sao | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/35g | 6% | — | — |

**Wigan Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Field | FB | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·3·1·0·0) | 4/5g | 0/1g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.82 AI 27% ✓ Scored | 🏉 7' 37' 65' |
| 2 | Abbas Miski | WG | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.99 AI 53% ✓ Scored | 🏉 22' |
| 3 | Adam Keighran | CE | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 28% | — | — |
| 4 | Jake Wardle | CE | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/2g | 36% | — | 🏉 60' |
| 5 | Liam Marshall | WG | 0 in 1g | 9/10g (1·1·0·0·2·1·2·2·0·0) | 10/12g | 3/3g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.77 AI 58% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.66 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Harry Smith | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 7 | Bevan French | HB | 0 in 1g | 9/10g (0·0·2·0·1·2·2·1·1·0) | 9/7g | 1/2g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 66% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.37 AI 19% ✗ Not first | 🏉 73' |
| 8 | Liam Byrne | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Kruise Leeming | HK | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 4/15g | 2/2g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.58 AI 29% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | Luke Thompson | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Junior Nsemba | 2R | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.61 AI 41% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Liam Farrell | 2R | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/16g | 1/4g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.59 AI 29% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Kaide Ellis | LK | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Patrick Mago | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 31' |
| 15 | Tyler Dupree | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 1/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Sam Walters | INT | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.50 AI 43% ✗ No try | — |
| 17 | Tom Forber | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | 🏉 51' |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:10 UTC (latest tip update)