Castleford Tigers
St Helens
AI Win Probability
Castleford Tigers
32%
St Helens
68%
AI Match Overview
St Helens are clear favourites here at 68%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Castleford Tigers. The model sees St Helens ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. St Helens carry a 216-point ELO rating advantage (1572 vs 1356). Recent form favours St Helens with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Castleford Tigers. The margin model predicts St Helens by 13.0 points with a combined total of 48.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
St Helens to Win @1.18
Winner ✓
Edge
-16.7%
Line / Spread
St Helens -13 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
St Helens 1-12 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 40.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Castleford Tigers | R1L older → newer | 16.6 |
St Helens | R1W | 31.6 |
Avg Conceded
29.4
Castleford Tigers
12.2
St Helens
Avg Margin
-12.8
Castleford Tigers
19.4
St Helens
Run Metres
585
Castleford Tigers
1067
St Helens
Clean Breaks
1.4
Castleford Tigers
6.0
St Helens
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
68%
St Helens predicted to win by 13 points
Predicted total: 48 · Line: -13.0