# Castleford Tigers v St Helens — Super League Round 2 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Castleford Tigers 6 – 46 St Helens

_St Helens march in over Castleford Tigers._

Half time: 6 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Castleford Tigers 32% / St Helens 68% · The Jungle · Sat, 22 Feb, 11:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Castleford Tigers: Sylvester Namo (27') · St Helens: Joe Batchelor (5' 1st), Kyle Feldt (9' Tipped ⚡), Jonny Lomax (13' Tipped ⚡), Agnatius Paasi (47'), Harry Robertson (50' Tipped ⚡), Alex Walmsley (57'), Harry Robertson (65' Tipped ⚡), Jack Welsby (74' Tipped ⚡), Jonathan Bennison (79' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | 68% | Won |
| Castleford Tigers | 32% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 13.0 predicted → 40 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Castleford Tigers vs St Helens Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 2 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:10 pm_

Castleford Tigers 6–46 St Helens in Super League Round 2 at The Jungle. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had St Helens winning by 13 and the total landing around 48. St Helens won by 40 and the total came in at 52. Right team, wrong universe.

The scoreline was Castleford Tigers 6, St Helens 46, and the model's own scorecard admits it: 5 from 15 on this one. The win probability call was fine, 68% for St Helens. The margin was where it fell over, out by 27 points.

Worth walking back through it, because the shape of the game explains why. Joe Batchelor opened the scoring inside five minutes, and by the 13th minute St Helens led 0-14 through Kyle Feldt and Jonny Lomax. Castleford's only response all night came either side of half-time, Sylvester Namo's try in the 27th and Tex Hoy's conversion making it 6-14 at the break. That's as close as it ever got.

From there it was one-way. Agnatius Paasi in the 47th, Harry Robertson twice, Alex Walmsley, Jack Welsby, Jonathan Bennison, the tries just kept coming until it was 6-46. St Helens ran in eight tries after half-time to Castleford's none.

The stat sheet tells you why the model's margin number was never going to hold. St Helens ran for 1,663 metres to Castleford's 705, more than double. They broke the line 12 times to 2 and racked up 60 tackle busts to 19. Castleford managed precisely zero offloads all match, St Helens had 17. When one side is that much more efficient with the ball in hand, a 13-point margin was always a conservative starting point.

The positional ratings had flagged this before kick-off. St Helens held real edges in the backs (1281 to 762) and halves (1140 to 800), and that's exactly where the gulf showed up, in the metres and the busts and the constant line breaks. The forward pack rating was close, 962 to 957, and for a half that held up. Castleford competed up front early. It just didn't matter once St Helens' backline started running riot.

Form lines pointed the same way. St Helens came in averaging 31.6 points a game and conceding just 12.2, Castleford averaging 16.6 for and 29.4 against. Add the recent trend, St Helens LWLLW against Castleford's WLLLL, and the gap in this result looks less like an outlier and more like the pattern catching up with both sides at once.

Discipline mattered too. St Helens gave away just 2 penalties to Castleford's 5, and were tidier with the ball, 6 errors to 7. Not the difference between a loss and a win on its own, but it meant Castleford never got the field position to build anything after that early Namo try.

So the model got the winner right and the shape of the contest wrong. St Helens' backline did more damage than 13 points' worth, and Castleford's forwards, competitive as they were early, couldn't keep the game close once the ball started moving wide. Total score nearly bang on, margin nowhere near it. That's the ledger for this one.

**Key Match Stats**

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 705 | Run metres | **1,663** |
| 2 | Line breaks | **12** |
| 19 | Tackle busts | **60** |
| 0 | Offloads | **17** |
| 7 | Errors | **6** |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | **2** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Tries | 9 |
| 0/0 | Goals | 5/9 |
| 5 | Penalties Conceded | 2 |
| 7 | Errors | 6 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted St Helens to win at 68% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 13.0 but the actual margin was 40 points. Total score prediction of 48 was close to the actual 52, within 4 points. St Helens led 6–14 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 40. The model went 5/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (27/100) — penalties Castleford Tigers 5 · St Helens 2.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Helens to win — model probability 68.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** St Helens — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** St Helens 13-24 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: St Helens by 13 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on St Helens here: 68% to see off Castleford Tigers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: St Helens sit 216 ELO points clear, 1572 to 1356. Form leans St Helens' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Castleford Tigers.

St Helens own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has St Helens by 13.0, with the two sides combining for about 48. St Helens to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 16.6pts | Avg Score | 31.6pts |
| 29.4pts | Avg Conceded | 12.2pts |
| -12.8pts | Avg Margin | 19.4pts |
| 585.2m | Run Metres | 1066.8m |
| 1.4 | Clean Breaks | 6.0 |
| 151.0 | Tackles | 259.0 |
| 5.2 | Errors | 8.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Castleford Tigers | R24 W · R25 L · R26 L · R27 L · R1 L | 16.6 |
| St Helens | R25 L · R26 W · R27 L · L · R1 W | 31.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — St Helens lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R24 | St Helens | 36 – 12 | Castleford Tigers | St Helens 59% ✓ |
| 2026 | R12 | Castleford Tigers | 30 – 10 | St Helens | St Helens 67% ✗ |
| 2025 | R27 | St Helens | 26 – 24 | Castleford Tigers | not priced |
| 2025 | R20 | St Helens | 40 – 0 | Castleford Tigers | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Castleford Tigers | 4 – 60 | St Helens | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Castleford Tigers' best path is the left edge: Super League's 5th-ranked left edge attack (0.85 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 7th there (0.75 conceded/game). Key man: Senior, 14 tries in that channel this season.
- St Helens' best path is the middle: Super League's 2nd-ranked middle attack (1.86 tries/game) runs at a Castleford Tigers defence ranked 10th there (1.78 conceded/game). Key man: Welsby, 11 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Castleford Tigers | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.85/g (att 5th) · concedes 1/g (def 10th (weak)) | 0.75/g (att 6th) · concedes 0.75/g (def 7th) |
| Middle | 0.74/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 1.78/g (def 10th (weak)) | 1.86/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.57/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Right | 0.52/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 0.89/g (def 9th (weak)) | 0.61/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 0.64/g (def 6th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Castleford Tigers | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 9th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 17 | 17 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 81m/g | 145m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.4/g | 4.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.2/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.3% | 90.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Castleford Tigers | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 9th (weak) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 36 · 49 | 40 · 36 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 370m/g | 273m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.6/g | 9.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.3/g | 1.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82% | 79% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Castleford Tigers | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th (weak) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 15 | 15 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 194m/g | 283m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.3/g | 8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.1% | 90.5% |

**Who scores on St Helens** — 2nd Rows 0.24/g (lg 0.28) -14% · Wingers 0.77/g (lg 0.93) -17% · Five-Eighths 0.14/g (lg 0.18) -22%
**Who scores on Castleford Tigers** — Locks 0.1/g (lg 0.05) +100% · 2nd Rows 0.41/g (lg 0.28) +46% · Centres 0.6/g (lg 0.42) +43%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Jungle. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Castleford Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fletcher Rooney | FB | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Lee Kershaw | WG | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 4/6g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| 3 | Sam Wood | CE | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 4 | Zac Cini | CE | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Innes Senior | WG | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/16g | 0/0g | 24% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Tex Hoy | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Daejarn Asi | HB | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 8 | Joe Westerman | PR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/16g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Judah Rimbu | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | George Lawler | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Jeremaiha SIMBIKEN | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Alex Mellor | 2R | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/14g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Liam Horne | LK | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | George Griffin | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Joshua Hodson | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Muizz Mustapha | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Sylvester Namo | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 27' |

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Welsby | FB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/10g | 0/0g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.93 AI 54% ✓ Scored | 🏉 74' |
| 2 | Kyle Feldt | WG | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.71 AI 59% ✓ Scored | 🏉 9' |
| 3 | Harry Robertson | CE | 2 in 1g | 2/1g (2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.15 AI 74% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.19 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 50' 65' |
| 4 | Mark Percival | CE | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 11/17g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.35 AI 46% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Jon Bennison | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.27 AI 47% ✗ No try | 🏉 79' |
| 6 | Jonny Lomax | 5/8 | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 3/9g | 0/0g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 47% ✓ Scored | 🏉 13' |
| 7 | Tristan Sailor | HB | 4 in 1g | 4/1g (4) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.73 AI 86% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.10 AI 20% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Alex Walmsley | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/17g | 0/0g | 8% | — | 🏉 57' |
| 9 | Daryl Clark | HK | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/23g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 10 | Matty Lees | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Curtis Sironen | 2R | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.40 AI 45% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Joe Batchelor | 2R | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 24% | — | 🏉 5' |
| 13 | Morgan Knowles | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Matt Whitley | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/15g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 15 | Agnatius Paasi | INT | no games | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 16% | — | 🏉 47' |
| 16 | Jake Wingfield | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | George Delaney | INT | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Castleford Tigers 1356 · St Helens 1572 · ELO difference: 216 in favour of St Helens

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | St Helens |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | St Helens |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | St Helens |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | St Helens |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | St Helens |

**Model Confidence: 68%** — St Helens predicted to win by 13 points · Predicted total: 48 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:10 UTC (latest tip update)