# Wigan Warriors v Hull FC — Super League Round 19 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wigan Warriors 12 – 32 Hull FC

_Hull FC wear down Wigan Warriors._

Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wigan Warriors 77% / Hull FC 23% · The Brick Community Stadium · Sat, 19 July, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wigan Warriors: Christian Wade (55' Tipped ⚡), Ethan Havard (73') · Hull FC: Jed Cartwright (13' 1st), Jed Cartwright (22' 1st), Aidan Sezer (33'), Jordan Rapana (65'), Jack Ashworth (76')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | 77% | Lost |
| Hull FC | 23% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 12.8 predicted → 20 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wigan Warriors vs Hull FC Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 19 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:15 pm_

Wigan Warriors 12–32 Hull FC in Super League Round 19 at The Brick Community Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Hull FC ran past Wigan Warriors 32–12 at The Brick Community Stadium.

Jed Cartwright opened the scoring; Wigan Warriors crossed through Christian Wade and Ethan Havard; Hull FC scored through Jed Cartwright (2), Aidan Sezer, Jordan Rapana and Jack Ashworth.

**Model Report Card**

Hull FC defied the model's 77% prediction for Wigan Warriors, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 12.8 but the actual margin was 20 points. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 44, within 1 points. The model went 1/15 on this match.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wigan Warriors to win — model probability 77.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Wigan Warriors — model probability 77.2% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Wigan Warriors 13-24 — model probability 77.2% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Wigan Warriors by 13 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Wigan Warriors here: 77% to see off Hull FC. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wigan Warriors sit 296 ELO points clear, 1741 to 1444. Form leans Wigan Warriors' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Hull FC.

Wigan Warriors own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Wigan Warriors by 12.8, with the two sides combining for about 45. Wigan Warriors to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 19.2pts | Avg Score | 16.8pts |
| 16.4pts | Avg Conceded | 15.0pts |
| 2.8pts | Avg Margin | 1.8pts |
| 1175.4m | Run Metres | 1016.6m |
| 3.6 | Clean Breaks | 4.4 |
| 327.8 | Tackles | 315.6 |
| 9.6 | Errors | 11.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | R14 W · R15 L · R16 W · R17 L · R18 W | 19.2 |
| Hull FC | R14 L · R15 W · R16 L · R17 L · R18 W | 16.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wigan Warriors lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R16 | Hull FC | 16 – 20 | Wigan Warriors | Wigan Warriors 79% ✓ |
| 2026 | R2 | Wigan Warriors | 34 – 6 | Hull FC | Wigan Warriors 80% ✓ |
| 2025 | R9 | Hull FC | 12 – 36 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |
| 2025 | R2 | Hull FC | 4 – 46 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |
| 2024 | R23 | Wigan Warriors | 22 – 4 | Hull FC | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wigan Warriors' best path is the middle: Super League's 1st-ranked middle attack (2.44 tries/game) runs at a Hull defence ranked 6th there (1.28 conceded/game). Key man: Field, 18 tries in that channel this season.
- Hull's best path is the left edge: Super League's 4th-ranked left edge attack (1.17 tries/game) runs at a Wigan Warriors defence ranked 6th there (0.83 conceded/game). Key man: Martin, 13 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wigan Warriors | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.56/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.83/g (def 6th) | 1.17/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.83/g (def 6th) |
| Middle | 2.44/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.78/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.22/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.28/g (def 6th) |
| Right | 1.22/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 0.78/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.72/g (def 5th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 3 | 6 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 1.9/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 142m/g | 133m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.7/g | 5.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.5% | 89.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 60 · 19 | 33 · 32 |
| Try Assists | 2.2/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 521m/g | 376m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.1/g | 10.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 4.1/g | 1.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.9% | 80.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 6th | 5th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 9 | 10 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 375m/g | 358m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.5/g | 10.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.8% | 91.3% |

**Who scores on Hull** — Hookers 0.13/g (lg 0.09) +44% · Fullbacks 0.26/g (lg 0.19) +37% · Halfbacks 0.19/g (lg 0.14) +36%
**Who scores on Wigan Warriors** — Locks 0.04/g (lg 0.04) +0% · 2nd Rows 0.2/g (lg 0.25) -20% · Props 0.09/g (lg 0.13) -31%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Brick Community Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wigan Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Field | FB | 18 in 17g | 8/10g (1·1·0·1·2·1·1·1·0·0) | 8/7g | 34/41g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.85 AI 38% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $23.27 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Liam Marshall | WG | 8 in 16g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·0·1·0·0) | 10/14g | 45/56g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.15 AI 34% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $25.38 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Zach Eckersley | CE | 6 in 18g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/4g | 7/18g | 30% | — | — |
| 4 | Jake Wardle | CE | 12 in 17g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 3/8g | 19/36g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.33 AI 32% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Christian Wade | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.32 AI 32% ✓ Scored | 🏉 55' |
| 6 | Adam Keighran | 5/8 | 5 in 14g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 5/17g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.37 AI 31% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Harry Smith | HB | 3 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 12/57g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Joseph Havard | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Brad O'Neill | HK | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/31g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Tyler Dupree | PR | 2 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/7g | 3/25g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Junior Nsemba | 2R | 6 in 18g | 5/10g (2·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/6g | 6/27g | 30% | — | — |
| 12 | Liam Farrell | 2R | 3 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/18g | 21/55g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Kaide Ellis | LK | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 4/41g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Patrick Mago | INT | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Liam Byrne | INT | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 0/53g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Kruise Leeming | INT | 3 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/17g | 4/20g | 18% | — | — |
| 17 | Harvie Hill | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/23g | 4% | — | — |

**Hull** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zak Hardaker | FB | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/16g | 2/21g | 18% | — | — |
| 2 | Harvey Barron | WG | 7 in 14g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 43% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.01 AI 35% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $24.40 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Jordan Rapana | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 65' |
| 4 | Davy Litten | CE | 5 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 5 | Lewis Martin | WG | 13 in 18g | 8/10g (0·1·1·1·1·2·1·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.37 AI 45% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $19.86 AI 19% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Aidan Sezer | 5/8 | 2 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 8% | — | 🏉 33' |
| 7 | Jack Charles | HB | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 8 | Herman Ese'ese | PR | 7 in 18g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 24% | — | — |
| 9 | Cade Cust | HK | 4 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 4/22g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Liam Knight | PR | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Jed Cartwright | 2R | 1 in 5g | 1/5g (0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | 🏉 13' 22' |
| 12 | Brad Fash | 2R | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/5g | 2% | — | — |
| 13 | Yusuf Aydin | LK | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Tom Briscoe | INT | 7 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/20g | 1/6g | 26% | — | — |
| 15 | Jack Ashworth | INT | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/2g | 2% | — | 🏉 76' |
| 16 | Matty Laidlaw | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Will Hutchinson | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wigan Warriors 1741 · Hull FC 1444 · ELO difference: 296 in favour of Wigan Warriors

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Hull FC |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Wigan Warriors |

**Model Confidence: 77%** — Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 13 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:15 UTC (latest tip update)