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Super League | Round 19

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THE BRICK COMMUNITY STADIUM • SATURDAY 19 JULY, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
WIG

Wigan Warriors

1232
HUL

Hull

❌ Upset — model favoured Wigan Warriors at 77%

AI Win Probability

77%Wigan WarriorsFavourite

Wigan Warriors

77%

Hull

23%

AI Match Overview

Wigan Warriors are clear favourites here at 77%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Hull. The model sees Wigan Warriors ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. Wigan Warriors carry a 296-point ELO rating advantage (1741 vs 1444). Recent form favours Wigan Warriors with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Hull. The margin model predicts Wigan Warriors by 12.8 points with a combined total of 45.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Wigan Warriors to Win @1.15

Lost ✗

Edge

-9.7%

Line / Spread

Wigan Warriors +12.8 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Wigan Warriors 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Wigan Warriors
R14W
R15L
R16W
R17L
R18W

older → newer

19.2
Hull
R14L
R15W
R16L
R17L
R18W
16.8

Avg Conceded

16.4

Wigan Warriors

15.0

Hull

Avg Margin

2.8

Wigan Warriors

1.8

Hull

Run Metres

1175

Wigan Warriors

1017

Hull

Clean Breaks

3.6

Wigan Warriors

4.4

Hull

H2H History (Last 5)Wigan Warriors lead 4-1
Mar 2026WIG 34 - 6 HUL
May 2025WIG 36 - 12 HUL
Mar 2025WIG 46 - 4 HUL
Aug 2024WIG 22 - 4 HUL
Jul 2024WIG 22 - 24 HUL
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

WIG
1741Overall1444
HUL
ELO difference: +296 in favour of Wigan Warriors

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

890Forwards852
Best: 1231WIG +38Best: 1258
940Backs1027
Best: 1092HUL +87Best: 1229
875Halves740
Best: 875WIG +135Best: 740
600Hooker600
Even

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WIG
Stat
HUL
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
19.2pts
Avg Score
16.8pts
16.4pts
Avg Conceded
15.0pts
2.8pts
Avg Margin
1.8pts
1175.4m
Run Metres
1016.6m
3.6
Clean Breaks
4.4
327.8
Tackles
315.6
9.6
Errors
11.6

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Warriors
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Warriors
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Hull
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Warriors
5
Halves Control9.0%
Warriors
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Warriors
7
H2H History6.0%
Warriors

Model Confidence

77%

Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 13 points

Predicted total: 45 · Line: +12.8

1/4 match predictions correct