# St Helens v Leigh Leopards — Super League Round 19 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: St Helens 4 – 16 Leigh Leopards

_Leigh Leopards outpace St Helens._

Alphr AI pre-game win probability: St Helens 46% / Leigh Leopards 54% · The BrewDog Stadium · Thu, 17 July, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — St Helens: Harry Robertson (79') · Leigh Leopards: Joe Ofahengaue (59' 1st), Joe Ofahengaue (78' 1st)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | 54% | Won |
| St Helens | 46% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 0.7 predicted → 12 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St Helens vs Leigh Leopards Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 19 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:15 pm_

St Helens 4–16 Leigh Leopards in Super League Round 19 at The BrewDog Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

St Helens will look at the offload count and wonder how they came away with four points. Twelve offloads to Leigh's five is the kind of number that usually buys you field position and soft carries into a tired defensive line, and for long stretches it did just that. St Helens went to the break down just 0-4, both Leigh points coming from Gareth O'Brien penalty goals in the 20th and 39th minutes. That's the kind of scoreline St Helens have built five straight wins on this season, conceding an average of just 2.8 points a game coming in. For most of this one they were living up to that number.

Where it slipped was the back end. Leigh Leopards broke through in the 59th minute when Joe Ofahengaue scored, O'Brien converting two minutes later to make it 0-10. Leigh went again in the 78th, Ofahengaue's second try and O'Brien's third successful kick pushing the margin to 0-16. St Helens got a reply through Harry Robertson a minute later, but a try that late doesn't change much on the scoreboard or in the sheds. Final score: Leigh Leopards 16, St Helens 4.

The stat sheet explains why it was close on paper but not on the field. Run metres were almost identical: 1,121 for Leigh against 1,111 for St Helens, so this wasn't one pack steamrolling the other. Leigh shaded the line-break count two to one and tackle busts 31 to 27, modest edges rather than a hammering. St Helens actually conceded fewer errors, 8 to Leigh's 7, so the discipline numbers slightly favoured them, yet that control never turned into points on the board.

The positional ratings pointed at this before kick-off. Leigh's backs (1255) and halves (1129) rated well clear of St Helens' (996 and 874), and it was that spine that delivered the doubles from Ofahengaue and the reliable boot of O'Brien, who had St Helens down 0-4 before either side had crossed the line. St Helens held a small edge up front, 854 to 811, and in the hooker battle, 636 to 600, but neither showed up where it mattered on the scoreboard.

**Key Match Stats**

| St Helens | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 1,111 | Run metres | **1,121** |
| 1 | Line breaks | **2** |
| 27 | Tackle busts | **31** |
| **12** | Offloads | 5 |
| 8 | Errors | **7** |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | 5 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| St Helens | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 2 |
| 0/1 | Goals | 4/5 |
| 5 | Penalties Conceded | 5 |
| 8 | Errors | 7 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leigh Leopards to win at 54% probability. The predicted margin of 0.7 was reasonable against the actual 12-point result. The game's 20 points came in 22 points lower than the predicted 42. The model went 2/15 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (18/100) — penalties St Helens 5 · Leigh Leopards 5.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leigh Leopards to win — model probability 54.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Leigh Leopards — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Leigh Leopards 1-12 — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Leigh Leopards by 1 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Leigh Leopards are the call at 54%, but St Helens stay live at 46%. Form leans St Helens' way: 5 from their last 5, against 4 for Leigh Leopards.

On paper St Helens shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The model still sides with Leigh Leopards, which says Backline Quality and Halves Control carry the most weight. Lean Leigh Leopards, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| St Helens | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 28.2pts | Avg Score | 25.2pts |
| 2.8pts | Avg Conceded | 19.6pts |
| 25.4pts | Avg Margin | 5.6pts |
| 1168.2m | Run Metres | 1211.2m |
| 6.4 | Clean Breaks | 5.6 |
| 241.2 | Tackles | 269.4 |
| 9.0 | Errors | 9.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | R14 W · R15 W · R16 W · R17 W · R18 W | 28.2 |
| Leigh Leopards | R14 W · R15 W · R16 L · R17 W · R18 W | 25.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Leigh Leopards lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R26 | Leigh Leopards | 48 – 10 | St Helens | Leigh Leopards 73% ✓ |
| 2026 | R2 | St Helens | 20 – 18 | Leigh Leopards | Leigh Leopards 59% ✗ |
| 2025 | R26 | Leigh Leopards | 28 – 10 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2024 | R27 | Leigh Leopards | 18 – 12 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2024 | R19 | Leigh Leopards | 46 – 4 | St Helens | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- St Helens' best path is the middle: Super League's 4th-ranked middle attack (1.89 tries/game) runs at a Leigh Leopards defence ranked 7th there (1.39 conceded/game). Key man: Sailor, 9 tries in that channel this season.
- Leigh Leopards' best path is the left edge: Super League's 3rd-ranked left edge attack (1.39 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 1st there (0.5 conceded/game). Key man: Hanley, 7 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | St Helens | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.17/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.39/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.78/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.89/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.44/g (att 5th) · concedes 1.39/g (def 7th) |
| Right | 1.5/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.44/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.72/g (def 5th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | St Helens | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 5th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 5 | 10 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 2.4/g |
| Run Metres | 177m/g | 149m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.7/g | 4.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.9% | 85.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | St Helens | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 5th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 49 · 19 | 37 · 25 |
| Try Assists | 2.2/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 468m/g | 583m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 17.8/g | 19.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.5/g | 3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.2% | 84.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | St Helens | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 2 | 19 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 316m/g | 371m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.4/g | 7.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.4% | 94% |

**Who scores on Leigh Leopards** — Halfbacks 0.17/g (lg 0.14) +21% · Props 0.13/g (lg 0.12) +8% · Five-Eighths 0.2/g (lg 0.19) +5%
**Who scores on St Helens** — Centres 0.36/g (lg 0.4) -10% · Five-Eighths 0.15/g (lg 0.19) -21% · Locks 0.03/g (lg 0.04) -25%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The BrewDog Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tristan Sailor | FB | 12 in 18g | 6/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 8/7g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.41 AI 45% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Kyle Feldt | WG | 12 in 9g | 12/9g (1·1·1·0·4·0·3·2·0) | 0/0g | 4/4g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.03 AI 78% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.30 AI 25% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Harry Robertson | CE | 8 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/6g | 30% | — | 🏉 79' |
| 4 | Matt Whitley | CE | 3 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 5/19g | 14% | — | — |
| 5 | Owen Dagnall | WG | 5 in 7g | 5/7g (0·0·1·1·2·0·1) | 0/0g | 3/3g | 57% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.84 AI 56% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $16.15 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Moses Mbye | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Jonny Lomax | HB | 2 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 13/59g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Alex Walmsley | PR | 3 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 10/52g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Jake Wingfield | HK | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/24g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | George Delaney | PR | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/28g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Curtis Sironen | 2R | 5 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 7/32g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.48 AI 43% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Matty Lees | 2R | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/51g | 2% | — | — |
| 13 | Morgan Knowles | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Jon Bennison | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Agnatius Paasi | INT | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 5/37g | 14% | — | — |
| 16 | George Whitby | INT | 3 in 9g | 3/9g (0·0·0·0·3·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/3g | 11% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.34 AI 46% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $19.71 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 17 | Leon Cowen | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Leigh Leopards** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bailey Hodgson | FB | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 3% | — | — |
| 2 | Keanan Brand | WG | 8 in 16g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·3·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 23% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.34 AI 46% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $19.70 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Tesi Niu | CE | 5 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 31% | — | — |
| 4 | Umyla Hanley | CE | 7 in 14g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 28% | — | — |
| 5 | Josh Charnley | WG | 3 in 9g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 5/12g | 0/5g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.21 AI 33% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $25.84 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Lachlan Lam | 5/8 | 2 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 0/2g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Gareth O'Brien | HB | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/15g | 1/5g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Owen Trout | PR | 4 in 18g | 4/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/6g | 0/2g | 16% | — | — |
| 9 | Edwin Ipape | HK | 5 in 17g | 4/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 30% | — | — |
| 10 | Joe Ofahengaue | PR | 3 in 9g | 3/9g (0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | 🏉 59' 78' |
| 11 | Frankie Halton | 2R | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/4g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Jack Hughes | 2R | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/18g | 0/6g | 4% | — | — |
| 13 | Isaac Liu | LK | 2 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 14 | Ben McNamara | INT | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Alec Tuitavake | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Matt Davis | INT | 2 in 18g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Andrew Badrock | INT | 2 in 7g | 2/7g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — St Helens 1659 · Leigh Leopards 1646 · ELO difference: 13 in favour of St Helens

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | St Helens |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | St Helens |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | St Helens |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | St Helens |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Leigh Leopards |

**Model Confidence: 54%** — Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 2/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:15 UTC (latest tip update)