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Super League | Round 19

alphr.com.au

THE BREWDOG STADIUM • THURSDAY 17 JULY, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
STH

St Helens

416
LEI

Leigh Leopards

✅ Model correct — backed Leigh Leopards at 54%

AI Win Probability

54%Leigh LeopardsFavourite

St Helens

46%

Leigh Leopards

54%

AI Match Overview

Leigh Leopards hold the advantage at 54% win probability, though St Helens are far from out of this at 46%. St Helens are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate, but Leigh Leopards counter with Backline Quality and Halves Control which tips the scales. Recent form favours St Helens with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 4 for Leigh Leopards.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Leigh Leopards to Win @2.90

Winner ✓

Edge

+19.9%

Line / Spread

Leigh Leopards -0.7 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Leigh Leopards Draw @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
St Helens
R14W
R15W
R16W
R17W
R18W

older → newer

28.2
Leigh Leopards
R14W
R15W
R16L
R17W
R18W
25.2

Avg Conceded

2.8

St Helens

19.6

Leigh Leopards

Avg Margin

25.4

St Helens

5.6

Leigh Leopards

Run Metres

1168

St Helens

1211

Leigh Leopards

Clean Breaks

6.4

St Helens

5.6

Leigh Leopards

H2H History (Last 5)Leigh Leopards lead 3-2
Mar 2026STH 20 - 18 LEI
Sep 2025STH 10 - 28 LEI
Sep 2024STH 12 - 18 LEI
Jul 2024STH 4 - 46 LEI
Mar 2024STH 12 - 4 LEI
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

STH
1659Overall1646
LEI
ELO difference: +13 in favour of St Helens

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

854Forwards811
Best: 1031STH +43Best: 1029
996Backs1255
Best: 1086LEI +260Best: 1360
874Halves1129
Best: 874LEI +255Best: 1129
636Hooker600
STH +36

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

STH
Stat
LEI
5.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
28.2pts
Avg Score
25.2pts
2.8pts
Avg Conceded
19.6pts
25.4pts
Avg Margin
5.6pts
1168.2m
Run Metres
1211.2m
6.4
Clean Breaks
5.6
241.2
Tackles
269.4
9.0
Errors
9.6

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Helens
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Helens
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Leopards
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Helens
5
Halves Control9.0%
Leopards
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Helens
7
H2H History6.0%
Leopards

Model Confidence

54%

Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 1 points

Predicted total: 42 · Line: -0.7

2/4 match predictions correct