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Super League | Round 19

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AMT HEADINGLEY STADIUM • FRIDAY 18 JULY, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
LEE

Leeds Rhinos

426
SAL

Salford Red Devils

✅ Model correct — backed Leeds Rhinos at 89%

AI Win Probability

89%Leeds RhinosFavourite

Leeds Rhinos

89%

Salford Red Devils

11%

AI Match Overview

Leeds Rhinos are clear favourites here at 89%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Salford Red Devils. The model sees Leeds Rhinos ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage. Leeds Rhinos carry a 451-point ELO rating advantage (1642 vs 1191). Recent form favours Leeds Rhinos with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Salford Red Devils. The margin model predicts Leeds Rhinos by 22.9 points with a combined total of 47.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Leeds Rhinos to Win @1.12

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Leeds Rhinos +22.9 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Leeds Rhinos 13-24 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Leeds Rhinos
R14W
R15L
R16W
R17W
R18L

older → newer

20.4
Salford Red Devils
R14L
R15L
R16L
R17L
R18W
9.6

Avg Conceded

14.8

Leeds Rhinos

37.6

Salford Red Devils

Avg Margin

5.6

Leeds Rhinos

-28.0

Salford Red Devils

Run Metres

1293

Leeds Rhinos

564

Salford Red Devils

Clean Breaks

5.4

Leeds Rhinos

2.2

Salford Red Devils

H2H History (Last 5)Leeds Rhinos lead 4-1
Apr 2025LEE 28 - 0 SAL
Mar 2025LEE 32 - 6 SAL
Jul 2024LEE 16 - 22 SAL
Mar 2024LEE 22 - 16 SAL
Jul 2023LEE 16 - 14 SAL
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

LEE
1642Overall1191
SAL
ELO difference: +451 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

829Forwards1045
Best: 1123SAL +216Best: 1269
786Backs963
Best: 892SAL +177Best: 1046
613Halves1000
Best: 613SAL +387Best: 1000
921Hooker1202
SAL +281

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

LEE
Stat
SAL
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
1.0
20.4pts
Avg Score
9.6pts
14.8pts
Avg Conceded
37.6pts
5.6pts
Avg Margin
-28.0pts
1293.0m
Run Metres
563.8m
5.4
Clean Breaks
2.2
295.8
Tackles
216.6
12.8
Errors
5.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Rhinos
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Devils
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Devils
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Rhinos
5
Halves Control9.0%
Devils
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Rhinos
7
H2H History6.0%
Rhinos

Model Confidence

89%

Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 23 points

Predicted total: 47 · Line: +22.9

3/4 match predictions correct