# Leeds Rhinos v Salford Red Devils — Super League Round 19 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Leeds Rhinos 42 – 6 Salford Red Devils

_Leeds Rhinos trample Salford Red Devils._

Half time: 10 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Leeds Rhinos 89% / Salford Red Devils 11% · AMT Headingley Stadium · Fri, 18 July, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Leeds Rhinos: Alfie Edgell (18' 1st), Alfie Edgell (21' 1st), Lachlan Miller (44' Tipped ⚡), Alfie Edgell (52' 1st), Harry Newman (56' Tipped ⚡), James McDonnell (59'), Cooper Jenkins (73') · Salford Red Devils: Ryan Brierley (25')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | 89% | Won |
| Salford Red Devils | 11% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 22.9 predicted → 36 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Leeds Rhinos vs Salford Red Devils Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 19 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:15 pm_

Leeds Rhinos 42–6 Salford Red Devils in Super League Round 19 at AMT Headingley Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Salford Red Devils were within four points at the 25th minute. That's as close as it got.

Ryan Brierley crossed in the 25th to make it 10-4, Chris Hankinson's conversion trimmed it to 10-6, and for a moment Headingley had a contest on its hands. Leeds Rhinos led 10-6 at half-time. Then they closed the door and never opened it again. Final score: 42-6.

The damage was done from the 44th minute. Lachlan Miller went over, Jake Connor added the extras and then a penalty goal, and by the 48th minute it was 18-6. Alfie Edgell finished with a hat-trick, his first two tries coming early in the piece at the 18th and 21st minutes before he added a third in the 52nd. Harry Newman and James McDonnell scored three minutes apart either side of the hour mark, and Cooper Jenkins finished it off in the 73rd. From 10-6 at the break, Leeds Rhinos ran up 32 unanswered points. Salford didn't trouble the scoreboard again after Brierley's try.

The gap in the arm-wrestle explains why it got away from them. Leeds Rhinos ran for 1,526 metres to Salford's 603, broke the line eight times to one, and busted 40 tackles to Salford's 10. Sixteen offloads to four tells you Leeds had the ball doing the work for them after contact, and that kind of go-forward tends to add up once the tries start clicking over, which is what happened after halftime.

Salford's one clean edge was ball control, just 4 errors against Leeds' 13. On another day that discipline might have kept them competitive longer. It didn't matter here, because holding onto the ball counts for little if you can't get past the line. Penalties were even at three apiece, so this wasn't decided by ill-discipline.

What makes the scoreline more interesting is the pre-match shape of these two sides. Salford went in rated higher across every positional comparison, forwards, backs, halves and hooker, sometimes by a wide margin (halves 1000 to 613, hooker 1202 to 921). On paper that's a side built to control a match. But form told a different story. Leeds Rhinos came in having won three of their last five with an average margin of plus 5.6 points, while Salford had lost four of their last five and were shipping nearly 38 points a game on average. Leeds were also averaging over 1,290 running metres a game across that stretch to Salford's 564. That form gap showed up in territory and go-forward, not in the raw personnel on paper.

**Key Match Stats**

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| **1,526** | Run metres | 603 |
| **8** | Line breaks | 1 |
| **40** | Tackle busts | 10 |
| **16** | Offloads | 4 |
| 13 | Errors | **4** |
| 3 | Penalties conceded | 3 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tries | 0 |
| 7/8 | Goals | 1/1 |
| 3 | Penalties Conceded | 3 |
| 13 | Errors | 4 |
| 0 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leeds Rhinos to win at 89% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 22.9 but the actual margin was 36 points. Total score prediction of 47 was close to the actual 48, within 2 points. Leeds Rhinos led 10–6 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 36. The model went 3/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (3/100) — penalties Leeds Rhinos 3 · Salford Red Devils 3.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leeds Rhinos to win — model probability 88.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Leeds Rhinos — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Leeds Rhinos 13-24 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Leeds Rhinos by 23 · Predicted total: 47

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Leeds Rhinos here: 89% to see off Salford Red Devils. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leeds Rhinos sit 451 ELO points clear, 1642 to 1191. Form leans Leeds Rhinos' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Salford Red Devils.

Leeds Rhinos own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage. The margin model has Leeds Rhinos by 22.9, with the two sides combining for about 47. Leeds Rhinos to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 20.4pts | Avg Score | 9.6pts |
| 14.8pts | Avg Conceded | 37.6pts |
| 5.6pts | Avg Margin | -28.0pts |
| 1293.0m | Run Metres | 563.8m |
| 5.4 | Clean Breaks | 2.2 |
| 295.8 | Tackles | 216.6 |
| 12.8 | Errors | 5.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | R14 W · R15 L · R16 W · R17 W · R18 L | 20.4 |
| Salford Red Devils | R14 L · R15 L · R16 L · R17 L · R18 W | 9.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Leeds Rhinos lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R7 | Salford Red Devils | 0 – 28 | Leeds Rhinos |
| 2025 | R2 | Salford Red Devils | 6 – 32 | Leeds Rhinos |
| 2024 | R20 | Salford Red Devils | 22 – 16 | Leeds Rhinos |
| 2024 | R1 | Leeds Rhinos | 22 – 16 | Salford Red Devils |
| 2023 | R18 | Salford Red Devils | 14 – 16 | Leeds Rhinos |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Leeds Rhinos' best path is the right edge: Super League's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.28 tries/game) runs at a Salford Red Devils defence ranked 12th there (2.44 conceded/game). Key man: Lumb, 10 tries in that channel this season.
- Salford Red Devils' best path is the left edge: Super League's 11th-ranked left edge attack (0.33 tries/game) runs at a Leeds Rhinos defence ranked 4th there (0.78 conceded/game). Key man: Macdonald, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Leeds Rhinos | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.72/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.78/g (def 4th (strong)) | 0.33/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.39/g (def 11th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.39/g (att 6th) · concedes 0.89/g (def 4th (strong)) | 0.39/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 2.89/g (def 12th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.28/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.39/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.44/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 2.44/g (def 12th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 10th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 10th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 6 | 3 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 128m/g | 108m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.9/g | 2.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.8% | 88.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 33 · 24 | 11 · 65 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 579m/g | 260m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 18.3/g | 8.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.4/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.9% | 84.9% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 5 | 5 · 20 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 322m/g | 146m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.1/g | 3.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.1% | 90.8% |

**Who scores on Salford Red Devils** — Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.04) +75% · 2nd Rows 0.42/g (lg 0.25) +68% · Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.09) +56%
**Who scores on Leeds Rhinos** — Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.04) +75% · Hookers 0.1/g (lg 0.09) +11% · Centres 0.38/g (lg 0.4) -5%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at AMT Headingley Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Leeds Rhinos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lachlan Miller | FB | 5 in 14g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/3g | 5/21g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.02 AI 52% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $17.42 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 44' |
| 2 | Alfie Edgell | WG | 0 in 9g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 4/18g | 8% | — | 🏉 18' 21' 52' |
| 3 | Harry Newman | CE | 7 in 18g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·1·0·0·2·0·0) | 3/10g | 9/21g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.76 AI 58% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.52 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 56' |
| 4 | Ash Handley | CE | 4 in 18g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 11/20g | 10/18g | 32% | — | — |
| 5 | Ryan Hall | WG | 6 in 16g | 3/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 10/13g | 4/11g | 36% | — | — |
| 6 | Brodie Croft | 5/8 | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 7/20g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.06 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Jake Connor | HB | 4 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/22g | 4/11g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.95 AI 36% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Cooper Jenkins | PR | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/10g | 0% | — | 🏉 73' |
| 9 | Jarrod O'Connor | HK | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/22g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Keenan Palasia | PR | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/10g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | James Bentley | 2R | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 2/15g | 6% | — | — |
| 12 | James Mcdonnell | 2R | 6 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/5g | 3/22g | 12% | — | 🏉 59' |
| 13 | Kallum Watkins | LK | 5 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 2/8g | 3/8g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.01 AI 52% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.35 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 14 | Andy Ackers | INT | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/14g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Lisone | INT | 4 in 18g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/6g | 3/20g | 12% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.57 AI 42% ✗ No try | — |
| 16 | Cam Smith | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Presley Cassell | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**Salford Red Devils** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Declan Murphy | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Nathan Connell | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.10 AI 34% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $25.05 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Chris Hankinson | CE | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| 4 | Dan Russell | CE | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 5 | Ethan Ryan | WG | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| 6 | Ryan Brierley | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 25' |
| 7 | Olly Russell | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Jack Ormondroyd | PR | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Joe Mellor | HK | 1 in 4g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/12g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 10 | Chris Hill | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Thomas Whitehead | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Matty Foster | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Shorrocks | LK | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Harvey Wilson | INT | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| 15 | Charlie Glover | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Tiaki Chan | INT | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Kai Morgan | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Leeds Rhinos 1642 · Salford Red Devils 1191 · ELO difference: 451 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Salford Red Devils |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Salford Red Devils |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Salford Red Devils |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Leeds Rhinos |

**Model Confidence: 89%** — Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 23 points · Predicted total: 47 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:15 UTC (latest tip update)