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Super League | Round 19

alphr.com.au

ACCU STADIUM • FRIDAY 18 JULY, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
HUD

Huddersfield Giants

1046
WAK

Wakefield Trinity

✅ Model correct — backed Wakefield Trinity at 68%

AI Win Probability

68%Wakefield TrinityFavourite

Huddersfield Giants

32%

Wakefield Trinity

68%

AI Match Overview

Wakefield Trinity are clear favourites here at 68%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Huddersfield Giants. Huddersfield Giants are stronger on paper across 3 of 7 key factors, including Forward Pack, Halves Control and H2H History, but Wakefield Trinity counter with ELO Difference and Backline Quality which tips the scales. Wakefield Trinity carry a 245-point ELO rating advantage (1527 vs 1282). The margin model predicts Wakefield Trinity by 7.0 points with a combined total of 43.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Wakefield Trinity to Win @1.48

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.7%

Line / Spread

Wakefield Trinity -7 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Wakefield Trinity 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Huddersfield Giants
R14L
R15W
R16L
R17W
R18L

older → newer

16.4
Wakefield Trinity
R14L
R15W
R16L
R17W
R18L
20.0

Avg Conceded

22.4

Huddersfield Giants

18.0

Wakefield Trinity

Avg Margin

-6.0

Huddersfield Giants

2.0

Wakefield Trinity

Run Metres

948

Huddersfield Giants

1077

Wakefield Trinity

Clean Breaks

2.6

Huddersfield Giants

3.2

Wakefield Trinity

H2H History (Last 5)Huddersfield Giants lead 3-2
Mar 2026HUD 16 - 18 WAK
Aug 2025HUD 2 - 48 WAK
Jul 2023HUD 34 - 6 WAK
Mar 2023HUD 8 - 0 WAK
Sep 2022HUD 16 - 14 WAK
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

HUD
1282Overall1527
WAK
ELO difference: -245 in favour of Wakefield Trinity

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

857Forwards801
Best: 1000HUD +56Best: 1040
704Backs730
Best: 774WAK +25Best: 816
1000Halves740
Best: 1000HUD +260Best: 740
817Hooker786
HUD +30

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HUD
Stat
WAK
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
16.4pts
Avg Score
20.0pts
22.4pts
Avg Conceded
18.0pts
-6.0pts
Avg Margin
2.0pts
948.2m
Run Metres
1077.0m
2.6
Clean Breaks
3.2
280.6
Tackles
283.8
8.6
Errors
9.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Trinity
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Giants
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Trinity
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
5
Halves Control9.0%
Giants
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
7
H2H History6.0%
Giants

Model Confidence

68%

Wakefield Trinity predicted to win by 7 points

Predicted total: 43 · Line: -7.0

3/4 match predictions correct