Skip to main content

Super League | Round 19

alphr.com.au

STADE GILBERT BRUTUS • SATURDAY 19 JULY, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
CAT

Catalans Dragons

634
HKR

Hull KR

✅ Model correct — backed Hull KR at 67%

AI Win Probability

67%Hull KRFavourite

Catalans Dragons

33%

Hull KR

67%

AI Match Overview

Hull KR are clear favourites here at 67%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Catalans Dragons. The model sees Hull KR ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. Hull KR carry a 392-point ELO rating advantage (1737 vs 1345). Recent form favours Hull KR with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Catalans Dragons. The margin model predicts Hull KR by 12.3 points with a combined total of 45.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Hull KR to Win @1.19

Winner ✓

Edge

-16.8%

Line / Spread

Hull KR -12.3 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Hull KR 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Catalans Dragons
R14L
R15L
R16W
R17L
R18L

older → newer

15.2
Hull KR
R14W
R15W
R16W
R17L
R18L
33.6

Avg Conceded

32.4

Catalans Dragons

11.6

Hull KR

Avg Margin

-17.2

Catalans Dragons

22.0

Hull KR

Run Metres

698

Catalans Dragons

1429

Hull KR

Clean Breaks

1.4

Catalans Dragons

8.8

Hull KR

H2H History (Last 5)Catalans Dragons lead 3-2
Apr 2026CAT 26 - 20 HKR
Jun 2025CAT 6 - 68 HKR
Aug 2024CAT 4 - 36 HKR
Jun 2024CAT 15 - 14 HKR
Apr 2024CAT 36 - 6 HKR
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

CAT
1345Overall1737
HKR
ELO difference: -392 in favour of Hull KR

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

871Forwards837
Best: 1061CAT +34Best: 1069
813Backs703
Best: 947CAT +110Best: 772
819Halves725
Best: 819CAT +94Best: 725
667Hooker1000
HKR +333

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

CAT
Stat
HKR
1.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
15.2pts
Avg Score
33.6pts
32.4pts
Avg Conceded
11.6pts
-17.2pts
Avg Margin
22.0pts
697.8m
Run Metres
1428.6m
1.4
Clean Breaks
8.8
209.8
Tackles
292.2
7.2
Errors
9.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
KR
2
Forward Pack12.0%
KR
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Dragons
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
KR
5
Halves Control9.0%
Dragons
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Dragons
7
H2H History6.0%
KR

Model Confidence

67%

Hull KR predicted to win by 12 points

Predicted total: 45 · Line: -12.3

2/4 match predictions correct