# Catalans Dragons v Hull KR — Super League Round 19 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Catalans Dragons 6 – 34 Hull KR

_Hull KR run riot over Catalans Dragons._

Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Catalans Dragons 33% / Hull KR 67% · Stade Gilbert Brutus · Sat, 19 July, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Catalans Dragons: Romain Navarrete (62') · Hull KR: Jack Broadbent (12' 1st Tipped ⚡), Mikey Lewis (31' Tipped ⚡), Joe Burgess (45'), Jack Broadbent (55' 1st Tipped ⚡), Mikey Lewis (72' Tipped ⚡), Joe Burgess (76')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | 67% | Won |
| Catalans Dragons | 33% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 12.3 predicted → 28 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Catalans Dragons vs Hull KR Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 19 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:15 pm_

Catalans Dragons 6–34 Hull KR in Super League Round 19 at Stade Gilbert Brutus. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had Hull KR winning by 12.3 and the two sides combining for 45 points. Half of that read out, the total finished at 40, close enough. The margin was another story entirely. Hull KR won by 28, more than double what was forecast, and Catalans Dragons never got close to making it a contest.

The scoreboard tells you enough on its own: 34-6. But the shape of it explains why the model's margin call was always going to be shaky. Jack Broadbent opened the scoring in the 12th minute, Arthur Mourgue converted, and by the 33rd minute Mikey Lewis had made it 0-12. Catalans Dragons hadn't troubled the scoreboard at all by that point. Joe Burgess added another in the 45th, Broadbent grabbed his second in the 55th, and it was 0-22 before Catalans Dragons finally got off the mark through Romain Navarrete in the 62nd minute. Hull KR simply kept going, with Lewis and Burgess both scoring again late to turn a comfortable win into a rout.

The pre-match numbers pointed this way even if the margin undersold it. Hull KR's hooker rating of 1000 against Catalans Dragons' 667 was the standout gap on the sheet, and it showed up everywhere. Run metres finished 1,331 to 743, line breaks 7 to 0, tackle busts 33 to 26. When one side is getting through the line seven times and the other not once, a 12-point handicap was never going to hold.

Form lines back it up too. Hull KR arrived averaging 33.6 points a game across their last five with 8.8 clean breaks a match, Catalans Dragons were down at 15.2 points and 1.4 breaks. Catalans had also been leaking 32.4 points a game on average. Put both sets of numbers next to each other and 34-6 looks less like an upset and more like the form guide doing exactly what it said it would.

Catalans Dragons weren't sloppy with it, in fairness. Twelve errors to Hull KR's 15 means they were the tidier side with the ball, and they gave away only two penalties to Hull KR's zero. None of that matters much when you can't get out of your own end. Without go-forward, discipline and low error counts are just numbers that look decent on paper.

Broadbent finished with two tries, Lewis added a double of his own, and Burgess capped his night with two as well, the same trio doing the damage from start to finish. Navarrete's try was the only thing Catalans Dragons had to show for eighty minutes, a bit of respectability rather than a genuine response.

So the model's headline call landed: Hull KR at 67 per cent were always the right side to back, and they backed it up. The total of 45 was close enough to the actual 40. It was the margin that got away from it, out by nearly 16 points. Line breaks and run metres told the real story here, and no probability percentage was going to soften a gap that wide.

**Key Match Stats**

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 743 | Run metres | **1,331** |
| 0 | Line breaks | **7** |
| 26 | Tackle busts | **33** |
| 4 | Offloads | **8** |
| **12** | Errors | 15 |
| 2 | Penalties conceded | **0** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 6 |
| 1/1 | Goals | 5/6 |
| 2 | Penalties Conceded | 0 |
| 12 | Errors | 15 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hull KR to win at 67% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 12.3 but the actual margin was 28 points. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 40, within 5 points. The model went 3/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (40/100) — penalties Catalans Dragons 2 · Hull KR 0.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull KR to win — model probability 67.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hull KR — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hull KR 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hull KR by 12 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Hull KR here: 67% to see off Catalans Dragons. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hull KR sit 392 ELO points clear, 1737 to 1345. Form leans Hull KR's way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Catalans Dragons.

On paper Catalans Dragons shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The model still sides with Hull KR, which says ELO Difference and Recent Win Rate carry the most weight. The margin model has Hull KR by 12.3, with the two sides combining for about 45. Hull KR to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 15.2pts | Avg Score | 33.6pts |
| 32.4pts | Avg Conceded | 11.6pts |
| -17.2pts | Avg Margin | 22.0pts |
| 697.8m | Run Metres | 1428.6m |
| 1.4 | Clean Breaks | 8.8 |
| 209.8 | Tackles | 292.2 |
| 7.2 | Errors | 9.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Catalans Dragons | R14 L · R15 L · R16 W · R17 L · R18 L | 15.2 |
| Hull KR | R14 W · R15 W · R16 W · R17 L · R18 L | 33.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Hull KR lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R23 | Hull KR | 28 – 10 | Catalans Dragons | Hull KR 61% ✓ |
| 2026 | R5 | Catalans Dragons | 26 – 20 | Hull KR | Hull KR 52% ✗ |
| 2025 | R14 | Hull KR | 68 – 6 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |
| 2024 | R22 | Catalans Dragons | 4 – 36 | Hull KR | not priced |
| 2024 | R16 | Hull KR | 14 – 15 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Catalans Dragons' best path is the right edge: Super League's 11th-ranked right edge attack (0.39 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 3rd there (0.5 conceded/game). Key man: Makinson, 4 tries in that channel this season.
- Hull KR's best path is the middle: Super League's 2nd-ranked middle attack (2.33 tries/game) runs at a Catalans Dragons defence ranked 10th there (2.06 conceded/game). Key man: Lewis, 15 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Catalans Dragons | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.28/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.22/g (def 9th (weak)) | 1.56/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.56/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Middle | 0.72/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 2.06/g (def 10th (weak)) | 2.33/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.56/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Right | 0.39/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 0.89/g (def 7th) | 1.56/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 3rd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 21 | 21 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 27m/g | 197m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 0.8/g | 7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.1/g | 1.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.8% | 85.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 31 | 53 · 20 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 2.1/g |
| Run Metres | 363m/g | 594m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13/g | 13.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.3/g | 4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.1% | 82.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 17 | 12 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 176m/g | 302m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.7/g | 5.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.2/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.5% | 93.6% |

**Who scores on Hull KR** — 2nd Rows 0.24/g (lg 0.25) -4% · Fullbacks 0.17/g (lg 0.19) -11% · Hookers 0.08/g (lg 0.09) -11%
**Who scores on Catalans Dragons** — Five-Eighths 0.24/g (lg 0.19) +26% · Locks 0.05/g (lg 0.04) +25% · Props 0.16/g (lg 0.13) +23%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Stade Gilbert Brutus. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Catalans Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guillermo Aispuro-bichet | FB | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/7g | 17% | — | — |
| 2 | Tommy Makinson | WG | 4 in 14g | 4/10g (0·0·3·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 8/8g | 6/13g | 40% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Arthur Romano | CE | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 8/35g | 12% | — | — |
| 4 | Leo Darrelatour | CE | 2 in 7g | 2/7g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/4g | 29% | — | — |
| 5 | Clement Martin | WG | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 25% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Cesar Rouge | 5/8 | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 3/22g | 8% | — | — |
| 7 | Luke Keary | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Romain Navarrete | PR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/34g | 0% | — | 🏉 62' |
| 9 | Alrix Da Costa | HK | 3 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/9g | 3/40g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Chris Satae | PR | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 2/23g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Ben Garcia | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Tevita Pangai Junior | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Oliver Partington | LK | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/14g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Julian Bousquet | INT | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 7/49g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Tariq Sims | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Franck Maria | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Denive Balmforth | INT | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/2g | 2/5g | 17% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |

**Hull KR** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arthur Mourgue | FB | 6 in 16g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 16/46g | 26% | — | — |
| 2 | Tom Davies | WG | 13 in 16g | 8/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·2·3·0·0) | 3/4g | 24/48g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.87 AI 82% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.18 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Peta Hiku | CE | 7 in 17g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 42% | — | — |
| 4 | Jack Broadbent | CE | 9 in 17g | 8/10g (2·0·0·1·2·1·2·0·0·0) | 4/6g | 2/2g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.42 AI 67% ✓ Scored | 🏉 12' 55' |
| 5 | Joe Burgess | WG | 8 in 13g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·2·1·0·1·0·0) | 17/16g | 3/4g | 36% | — | 🏉 45' 76' |
| 6 | Mikey Lewis | 5/8 | 15 in 15g | 8/10g (0·1·0·1·1·2·2·0·1·0) | 4/9g | 0/4g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.73 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.10 AI 15% ✗ Not first | 🏉 31' 72' |
| 7 | Tyrone May | HB | 4 in 16g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 4/22g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.54 AI 64% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Sauaso Sue | PR | 3 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 0/1g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.83 AI 56% ✗ No try | — |
| 9 | Michael McIlorum | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Jared Waerea-Hargreaves | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Rhyse Martin | 2R | 1 in 5g | 5/10g (0·3·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/9g | 0/4g | 24% | — | — |
| 12 | James Batchelor | 2R | 5 in 15g | 5/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 3/11g | 0/3g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.39 AI 68% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Dean Hadley | LK | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/17g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Luckley | INT | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Jai Whitbread | INT | 5 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/3g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.85 AI 56% ✗ No try | — |
| 16 | Kelepi Tanginoa | INT | 5 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 4/12g | 0/4g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.57 AI 63% ✗ No try | — |
| 17 | Bill Leyland | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Catalans Dragons 1345 · Hull KR 1737 · ELO difference: 392 in favour of Hull KR

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Hull KR |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Hull KR |

**Model Confidence: 67%** — Hull KR predicted to win by 12 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:15 UTC (latest tip update)