Castleford Tigers
Warrington Wolves
AI Win Probability
Castleford Tigers
40%
Warrington Wolves
60%
AI Match Overview
Warrington Wolves hold the advantage at 60% win probability, though Castleford Tigers are far from out of this at 40%. The model sees Warrington Wolves ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Warrington Wolves carry a 245-point ELO rating advantage (1493 vs 1248). Recent form favours Warrington Wolves with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Castleford Tigers. The margin model predicts Warrington Wolves by 1.9 points with a combined total of 39.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Warrington Wolves to Win @1.29
Lost ✗
Edge
-17.7%
Line / Spread
Warrington Wolves -1.9 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Warrington Wolves 1-12 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 40.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Castleford Tigers | R14W R15L R16L R17L R18L older → newer | 15.2 |
Warrington Wolves | R14L R15L R16W R17W R18W | 20.0 |
Avg Conceded
28.8
Castleford Tigers
20.4
Warrington Wolves
Avg Margin
-13.6
Castleford Tigers
-0.4
Warrington Wolves
Run Metres
1044
Castleford Tigers
878
Warrington Wolves
Clean Breaks
4.4
Castleford Tigers
3.2
Warrington Wolves
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
60%
Warrington Wolves predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 39 · Line: -1.9