# Castleford Tigers v Warrington Wolves — Super League Round 19 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Castleford Tigers 20 – 14 Warrington Wolves

_Castleford Tigers maul Warrington Wolves in a tight one._

Half time: 12 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Castleford Tigers 40% / Warrington Wolves 60% · The Jungle · Sun, 20 July, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Castleford Tigers: Daejarn Asi (11' Tipped ⚡), George Lawler (18' Tipped ⚡), Joshua Simm (64' Tipped ⚡) · Warrington Wolves: Sam Stone (6' 1st), Jake Thewlis (34' Tipped ⚡), Stefan Ratchford (68')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warrington Wolves | 60% | Lost |
| Castleford Tigers | 40% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 1.9 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Castleford Tigers vs Warrington Wolves Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 19 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:15 pm_

Castleford Tigers 20–14 Warrington Wolves in Super League Round 19 at The Jungle. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Castleford Tigers led 12-10 at the break and that's exactly where they finished the job, eventually, at 20-14. The scoreboard didn't move for the better part of 25 minutes after half-time, both sides seemingly happy to let the arm-wrestle simmer, until Chris Atkin's 59th-minute penalty goal nudged the hosts back in front by four. Six minutes later Joshua Simm crossed to make it 20-10, Atkin's conversion following, and suddenly the six-point half-time margin looked like it might blow out. Stefan Ratchford's try at the 68th minute pulled Warrington back within six, but by then the clock had run out on any real comeback.

The first half told its own story. Sam Stone crossed inside six minutes for Warrington, Marc Sneyd's boot making it 6-0, but Castleford hit back through Daejarn Asi and then George Lawler inside a seven-minute burst either side of the quarter-hour mark to lead 12-6. Jake Thewlis got one back for the Wolves just before the break to set the 12-10 scoreline that stood at half-time. Given the two extra second-half scores belonged to the home side, this was a lead Castleford built early and never actually surrendered, just occasionally let get uncomfortably close.

The stat sheet backs up how tight it stayed. Warrington shaded the metres, 1,260 to 1,189, and had the edge in line breaks, four to three, numbers that fit a Warrington forward pack rated 871 to 822 and a backline rated 807 to 731 coming in. On paper the Wolves should have had more to show for that platform.

What actually decided it was what each side did with the ball once trouble arrived. Castleford leaked just five errors to Warrington's eight, and racked up 28 tackle busts to Warrington's 18, numbers that point to a Castleford spine finding gaps under pressure even without the barnstorming carries. Warrington threw the ball around more, 10 offloads to Castleford's zero, but ten offloads and eight errors is a losing trade when the other side is that disciplined, conceding just two penalties to Warrington's three.

That hooker rating of 1,319 for Castleford against Warrington's 799 is a big number, and it showed up where it mattered: in a game this close, whoever controls the ruck controls the tempo, and Castleford controlled it.

Form-wise this was the flip of expectations. Warrington arrived on a three-game winning streak (WLLLL to LLWWW is the wrong way round, Warrington were the ones trending up), averaging 20 points a game to Castleford's 15.2, and had been the tighter defensive side by some margin, conceding 20.4 a game to Castleford's 28.8. None of that showed up at The Jungle. Castleford's one win in five coming in made this the sort of result that doesn't line up neatly with the season-long trend.

Alphr's model had Warrington favourites at 1,493 to Castleford's 1,248, expecting a Wolves win by 1.9 points and a total near 39. The total wasn't far off, 34 points, within five. The margin was in the right region too, six points against a predicted 1.9. The winner, though, the model got backwards. Four from fifteen on this one, filed under wins and misses, all of it.

**Key Match Stats**

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 1,189 | Run metres | **1,260** |
| 3 | Line breaks | **4** |
| **28** | Tackle busts | 18 |
| 0 | Offloads | **10** |
| **5** | Errors | 8 |
| **2** | Penalties conceded | 3 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 2 |
| 4/4 | Goals | 1/3 |
| 2 | Penalties Conceded | 3 |
| 5 | Errors | 8 |
| 1 | Sin Bins | 0 |

**Model Report Card**

Castleford Tigers defied the model's 60% prediction for Warrington Wolves, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 1.9 was reasonable against the actual 6-point result. Total score prediction of 39 was close to the actual 34, within 5 points. The model went 4/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (31/100) — penalties Castleford Tigers 2 · Warrington Wolves 3.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warrington Wolves to win — model probability 59.8% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Warrington Wolves — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Warrington Wolves 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Warrington Wolves by 2 · Predicted total: 39

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Warrington Wolves are the call at 60%, but Castleford Tigers stay live at 40%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Warrington Wolves sit 245 ELO points clear, 1493 to 1248. Form leans Warrington Wolves' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Castleford Tigers.

Warrington Wolves own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Warrington Wolves by 1.9, with the two sides combining for about 39. Lean Warrington Wolves, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 15.2pts | Avg Score | 20.0pts |
| 28.8pts | Avg Conceded | 20.4pts |
| -13.6pts | Avg Margin | -0.4pts |
| 1043.8m | Run Metres | 878.2m |
| 4.4 | Clean Breaks | 3.2 |
| 267.4 | Tackles | 276.6 |
| 9.8 | Errors | 8.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Castleford Tigers | R14 W · R15 L · R16 L · R17 L · R18 L | 15.2 |
| Warrington Wolves | R14 L · R15 L · R16 W · R17 W · R18 W | 20.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Warrington Wolves lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R21 | Castleford Tigers | 18 – 48 | Warrington Wolves | Warrington Wolves 62% ✓ |
| 2026 | R5 | Warrington Wolves | 72 – 6 | Castleford Tigers | Warrington Wolves 73% ✓ |
| 2025 | R13 | Warrington Wolves | 34 – 24 | Castleford Tigers | not priced |
| 2024 | R23 | Castleford Tigers | 6 – 28 | Warrington Wolves | not priced |
| 2024 | R3 | Warrington Wolves | 30 – 8 | Castleford Tigers | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Castleford Tigers' best path is the left edge: Super League's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1.11 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 8th there (0.94 conceded/game). Key man: Senior, 7 tries in that channel this season.
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the right edge: Super League's 7th-ranked right edge attack (0.94 tries/game) runs at a Castleford Tigers defence ranked 11th there (1.44 conceded/game). Key man: Thewlis, 7 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Castleford Tigers | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.11/g (att 5th) · concedes 1.22/g (def 9th (weak)) | 1.06/g (att 7th) · concedes 0.94/g (def 8th) |
| Middle | 1.06/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.67/g (def 9th (weak)) | 0.72/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.61/g (def 8th) |
| Right | 0.28/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.44/g (def 11th (weak)) | 0.94/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.11/g (def 10th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 9th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 6 | 5 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.2/g |
| Run Metres | 103m/g | 105m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.8/g | 3.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.3% | 90.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th (weak) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 23 · 52 | 36 · 31 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 373m/g | 289m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.5/g | 8.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.8/g | 1.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82% | 78.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 11th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 9th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 11 | 3 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 229m/g | 258m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.4/g | 5.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.5% | 94.3% |

**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — 2nd Rows 0.31/g (lg 0.25) +24% · Halfbacks 0.17/g (lg 0.14) +21% · Props 0.13/g (lg 0.13) +0%
**Who scores on Castleford Tigers** — Locks 0.11/g (lg 0.04) +175% · Fullbacks 0.33/g (lg 0.19) +74% · Props 0.19/g (lg 0.13) +46%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Jungle. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Castleford Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fletcher Rooney | FB | 2 in 5g | 2/5g (1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 40% | — | — |
| 2 | Josh Simm | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.71 AI 40% ✗ No try | 🏉 64' |
| 3 | Zac Cini | CE | 5 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 3/10g | 25% | — | — |
| 4 | Louis Senior | CE | 2 in 8g | 5/10g (2·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/5g | 44% | — | — |
| 5 | Innes Senior | WG | 7 in 14g | 6/10g (1·0·2·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 8/9g | 2/8g | 38% | — | — |
| 6 | Daejarn Asi | 5/8 | 5 in 18g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·2) | 0/1g | 2/10g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.61 AI 62% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $14.46 AI 19% ✗ Not first | 🏉 11' |
| 7 | Chris Atkin | HB | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/15g | 0/6g | 4% | — | — |
| 8 | Brad Singleton | PR | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/19g | 0/7g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | George Lawler | HK | 4 in 18g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/13g | 1/10g | 12% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.58 AI 42% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $21.36 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 18' |
| 10 | Taealoaloa Amone | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Jeremaiha SIMBIKEN | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Alex Mellor | 2R | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 1/10g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Westerman | LK | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 0/8g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Wood | INT | 3 in 16g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/8g | 1/9g | 20% | — | — |
| 15 | George Griffin | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Cain Robb | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Joe Stimson | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Warrington Wolves** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Dufty | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.76 AI 39% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Josh Thewlis | WG | 8 in 16g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·1·1·1) | 3/10g | 0/0g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.41 AI 67% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.07 AI 22% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Toby King | CE | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 9/18g | 0/0g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.73 AI 59% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.38 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Connor Wrench | CE | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| 5 | Jake Thewlis | WG | 6 in 11g | 5/10g (0·0·2·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 41% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 60% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.15 AI 18% ✗ Not first | 🏉 34' |
| 6 | Marc Sneyd | 5/8 | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/24g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | George Williams | HB | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 7/17g | 0/0g | 34% | — | — |
| 8 | Luke Yates | PR | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Sam Powell | HK | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 6/20g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Paul Vaughan | PR | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Sam Stone | 2R | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 0/0g | 12% | — | 🏉 6' |
| 12 | Lachlan Fitzgibbon | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Ben Currie | LK | 2 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 9/24g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Jordy Crowther | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Joe Philbin | INT | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/17g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Stefan Ratchford | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 68' |
| 17 | Ewan Irwin | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Castleford Tigers 1248 · Warrington Wolves 1493 · ELO difference: 245 in favour of Warrington Wolves

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Warrington Wolves |

**Model Confidence: 60%** — Warrington Wolves predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 39 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:15 UTC (latest tip update)