Salford Red Devils
Castleford Tigers
AI Win Probability
Salford Red Devils
40%
Castleford Tigers
60%
AI Match Overview
Castleford Tigers hold the advantage at 60% win probability, though Salford Red Devils are far from out of this at 40%. The model sees Castleford Tigers ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. Castleford Tigers carry a 118-point ELO rating advantage (1279 vs 1161). Recent form favours Castleford Tigers with 1 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Salford Red Devils. The margin model predicts Castleford Tigers by 2.2 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Castleford Tigers to Win @1.28
Lost ✗
Edge
-17.8%
Line / Spread
Castleford Tigers -2.2 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Castleford Tigers 1-12 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 40.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Salford Red Devils | R13L R14L R15L R16L R17L older → newer | 5.6 |
Castleford Tigers | R13L R14W R15L R16L R17L | 15.6 |
Avg Conceded
42.4
Salford Red Devils
30.4
Castleford Tigers
Avg Margin
-36.8
Salford Red Devils
-14.8
Castleford Tigers
Run Metres
498
Salford Red Devils
995
Castleford Tigers
Clean Breaks
1.2
Salford Red Devils
3.8
Castleford Tigers
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
60%
Castleford Tigers predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: -2.2