# Leigh Leopards v Hull KR — Super League Round 18 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Leigh Leopards 28 – 10 Hull KR

_Leigh Leopards outpace Hull KR._

Half time: 14 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Leigh Leopards 41% / Hull KR 59% · Progress with Unity Stadium · Sat, 12 July, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Leigh Leopards: Ethan O'Neill (7' 1st), Umyla Hanley (25'), Keanan Brand (30' Tipped ⚡), Lachlan Lam (49'), Josh Charnley (62'), Josh Charnley (79') · Hull KR: Tyrone May (18'), Kelepi Tanginoa (44')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | 59% | Lost |
| Leigh Leopards | 41% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 3.1 predicted → 18 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Leigh Leopards vs Hull KR Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 18 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:15 pm_

Leigh Leopards 28–10 Hull KR in Super League Round 18 at Progress with Unity Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Six all, eighteen minutes in, and Hull KR had every reason to think this was theirs. Tyrone May had just scored, Arthur Mourgue's boot had squared it up, and the form line said the visitors should be pulling away from here, not the other way round. Instead Leigh Leopards answered in the space of five minutes: Umyla Hanley crossed in the 25th, Keanan Brand followed in the 30th, and just like that it was 14-6 at the break. That burst was the match.

Hull KR never got back level. Kelepi Tanginoa's try just after half-time made it 14-10 and kept the scoreboard interesting, but Leigh had the answer again through Lachlan Lam in the 49th, then Josh Charnley twice, in the 62nd and the 79th, to turn a four-point game into an 18-point one. Final score: Leigh Leopards 28, Hull KR 10.

The ledger explains why the gap kept widening. Leigh ran for 1,367 metres to Hull KR's 1,246, forced three line breaks to two, and put in 45 tackle busts against just 20. That's not a marginal edge. That's a side finding space at will while the other struggles to lay a glove on them. Hull KR were actually the tidier side with ball in hand, coughing up only 8 errors to Leigh's 9, but tidy possession doesn't count for much when you can't get past the line. Discipline told a similar story: Leigh conceded just 2 penalties, Hull KR gave away 6, and repeat sets against a team scoring at will is not where you want to be.

None of this lines up with what either side brought in.

**Key Match Stats**

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| **1,367** | Run metres | 1,246 |
| **3** | Line breaks | 2 |
| **45** | Tackle busts | 20 |
| **7** | Offloads | 6 |
| 9 | Errors | **8** |
| **2** | Penalties conceded | 6 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 2 |
| 2/6 | Goals | 1/2 |
| 2 | Penalties Conceded | 6 |
| 9 | Errors | 8 |
| 0 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Leigh Leopards defied the model's 59% prediction for Hull KR, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.1 but the actual margin was 18 points. Leigh Leopards led 14–6 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 18. The model went 1/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (36/100) — penalties Leigh Leopards 2 · Hull KR 6.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull KR to win — model probability 58.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Hull KR — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Hull KR 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hull KR by 3 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Hull KR are the call at 59%, but Leigh Leopards stay live at 41%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hull KR sit 193 ELO points clear, 1788 to 1595.

Hull KR own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Hull KR by 3.1, with the two sides combining for about 44. Lean Hull KR, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 25.2pts | Avg Score | 38.4pts |
| 22.4pts | Avg Conceded | 6.8pts |
| 2.8pts | Avg Margin | 31.6pts |
| 1209.6m | Run Metres | 1397.4m |
| 6.4 | Clean Breaks | 9.4 |
| 275.8 | Tackles | 287.8 |
| 9.0 | Errors | 9.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | R13 W · R14 W · R15 W · R16 L · R17 W | 25.2 |
| Hull KR | R13 W · R14 W · R15 W · R16 W · R17 L | 38.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Hull KR lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R15 | Hull KR | 22 – 8 | Leigh Leopards | Hull KR 83% ✓ |
| 2026 | R11 | Leigh Leopards | 16 – 20 | Hull KR | Hull KR 55% ✓ |
| 2025 | R5 | Hull KR | 30 – 0 | Leigh Leopards | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Hull KR | 12 – 0 | Leigh Leopards | not priced |
| 2024 | R26 | Leigh Leopards | 0 – 24 | Hull KR | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Leigh Leopards' best path is the left edge: Super League's 3rd-ranked left edge attack (1.29 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 1st there (0.41 conceded/game). Key man: Brand, 6 tries in that channel this season.
- Hull KR's best path is the middle: Super League's 2nd-ranked middle attack (2.35 tries/game) runs at a Leigh Leopards defence ranked 7th there (1.35 conceded/game). Key man: Lewis, 15 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Leigh Leopards | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.29/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.82/g (def 5th) | 1.65/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.41/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.47/g (att 5th) · concedes 1.35/g (def 7th) | 2.35/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.53/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Right | 0.94/g (att 6th) · concedes 0.76/g (def 6th) | 1.65/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.41/g (def 2nd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 4 | 20 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 2.3/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 147m/g | 204m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.4/g | 7.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 1.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.2% | 85.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 33 · 25 | 53 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 2.2/g |
| Run Metres | 573m/g | 594m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 18.9/g | 13.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 3/g | 4.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.3% | 82.9% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 18 · 12 | 12 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 373m/g | 302m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.6/g | 6.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.9% | 93.8% |

**Who scores on Hull KR** — 2nd Rows 0.23/g (lg 0.25) -8% · Fullbacks 0.17/g (lg 0.19) -11% · Hookers 0.08/g (lg 0.09) -11%
**Who scores on Leigh Leopards** — Halfbacks 0.18/g (lg 0.14) +29% · Props 0.14/g (lg 0.13) +8% · Five-Eighths 0.19/g (lg 0.18) +6%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Progress with Unity Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Leigh Leopards** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bailey Hodgson | FB | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/7g | 4% | — | — |
| 2 | Keanan Brand | WG | 7 in 15g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·3·0) | 0/3g | 4/9g | 21% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.37 AI 31% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $26.92 AI 17% ✗ Not first | 🏉 30' |
| 3 | Tesi Niu | CE | 5 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 2/5g | 32% | — | — |
| 4 | Umyla Hanley | CE | 6 in 13g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 9/18g | 28% | — | 🏉 25' |
| 5 | Josh Charnley | WG | 1 in 8g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 15/17g | 22/28g | 46% | — | 🏉 62' 79' |
| 6 | Lachlan Lam | 5/8 | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 6/32g | 14% | — | 🏉 49' |
| 7 | Gareth O'Brien | HB | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/12g | 4/26g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Owen Trout | PR | 4 in 17g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/8g | 2/20g | 16% | — | — |
| 9 | Edwin Ipape | HK | 5 in 16g | 5/10g (1·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/6g | 8/27g | 34% | — | — |
| 10 | Joe Ofahengaue | PR | 3 in 8g | 3/8g (0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 38% | — | — |
| 11 | Frankie Halton | 2R | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 4/19g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Ethan O'Neill | 2R | 5 in 14g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/6g | 29% | — | 🏉 7' |
| 13 | Isaac Liu | LK | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 15% | — | — |
| 14 | Jack Hughes | INT | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/19g | 3/26g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Alec Tuitavake | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Matt Davis | INT | 2 in 17g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 4/29g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Ben McNamara | INT | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/8g | 14% | — | — |

**Hull KR** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arthur Mourgue | FB | 6 in 15g | 4/10g (1·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/7g | 1/3g | 28% | — | — |
| 2 | Tom Davies | WG | 13 in 15g | 9/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·1·2·3·0) | 4/9g | 2/3g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.52 AI 64% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.88 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Peta Hiku | CE | 7 in 16g | 6/10g (1·1·0·1·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.38 AI 45% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $19.98 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Jack Broadbent | CE | 9 in 16g | 8/10g (0·2·0·0·1·2·1·2·0·0) | 4/5g | 0/1g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.82 AI 57% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.96 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Joe Burgess | WG | 8 in 12g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·2·1·0·1·0) | 1/6g | 0/2g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.21 AI 48% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $18.74 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Tyrone May | 5/8 | 3 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/2g | 24% | — | 🏉 18' |
| 7 | Danny Richardson | HB | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | Sauaso Sue | PR | 3 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/1g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.50 AI 30% ✗ No try | — |
| 9 | Michael McIlorum | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Jared Waerea-Hargreaves | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Jai Whitbread | 2R | 5 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.53 AI 29% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | James Batchelor | 2R | 5 in 14g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·2·0) | 1/7g | 0/2g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.82 AI 38% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Elliot Minchella | LK | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Jez Litten | INT | 4 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/3g | 16% | — | — |
| 15 | Dean Hadley | INT | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Sam Luckley | INT | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Kelepi Tanginoa | INT | 4 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 1/2g | 24% | — | 🏉 44' |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Leigh Leopards 1595 · Hull KR 1788 · ELO difference: 193 in favour of Hull KR

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Hull KR |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Hull KR |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Hull KR |

**Model Confidence: 59%** — Hull KR predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:15 UTC (latest tip update)