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Super League | Round 18

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LEI

Leigh Leopards

2810
HKR

Hull KR

❌ Upset — model favoured Hull KR at 59%

AI Win Probability

59%Hull KRFavourite

Leigh Leopards

41%

Hull KR

59%

AI Match Overview

Hull KR hold the advantage at 59% win probability, though Leigh Leopards are far from out of this at 41%. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Hull KR carry a 193-point ELO rating advantage (1788 vs 1595). The margin model predicts Hull KR by 3.1 points with a combined total of 44.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Hull KR to Win @1.60

Lost ✗

Edge

-4.0%

Line / Spread

Hull KR -3.1 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Hull KR 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Leigh Leopards
R13W
R14W
R15W
R16L
R17W

older → newer

25.2
Hull KR
R13W
R14W
R15W
R16W
R17L
38.4

Avg Conceded

22.4

Leigh Leopards

6.8

Hull KR

Avg Margin

2.8

Leigh Leopards

31.6

Hull KR

Run Metres

1210

Leigh Leopards

1397

Hull KR

Clean Breaks

6.4

Leigh Leopards

9.4

Hull KR

H2H History (Last 5)Hull KR lead 5-0
May 2026LEI 16 - 20 HKR
Apr 2025LEI 0 - 30 HKR
Feb 2024LEI 0 - 12 HKR
Sep 2024LEI 0 - 24 HKR
Feb 2023LEI 6 - 20 HKR
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

LEI
1595Overall1788
HKR
ELO difference: -193 in favour of Hull KR

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

834Forwards913
Best: 1012HKR +79Best: 1232
1086Backs895
Best: 1255LEI +191Best: 1029
674Halves647
Best: 674LEI +27Best: 647
771Hooker1000
HKR +229

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

LEI
Stat
HKR
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
25.2pts
Avg Score
38.4pts
22.4pts
Avg Conceded
6.8pts
2.8pts
Avg Margin
31.6pts
1209.6m
Run Metres
1397.4m
6.4
Clean Breaks
9.4
275.8
Tackles
287.8
9.0
Errors
9.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
KR
2
Forward Pack12.0%
KR
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Leopards
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
5
Halves Control9.0%
Leopards
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Leopards
7
H2H History6.0%
KR

Model Confidence

59%

Hull KR predicted to win by 3 points

Predicted total: 44 · Line: -3.1

0/4 match predictions correct