# Leeds Rhinos v St Helens — Super League Round 18 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Leeds Rhinos 0 – 6 St Helens

_St Helens march all over Leeds Rhinos in a tight one._

Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Leeds Rhinos 66% / St Helens 34% · AMT Headingley Stadium · Fri, 11 July, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Leeds Rhinos: none · St Helens: Owen Dagnall (14' 1st Tipped 🎯)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | 66% | Lost |
| St Helens | 34% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 1.7 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Leeds Rhinos vs St Helens Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 18 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:15 pm_

Leeds Rhinos 0–6 St Helens in Super League Round 18 at AMT Headingley Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had St Helens as the value pick but not the winner, tipping Leeds Rhinos at 66% and pencilling in a St Helens margin of just 1.7 points if the upset came off. It came off. What nobody had was the shape of it: a 6-0 arm-wrestle with a combined total of 6 points, 35 short of the 41 the model expected. The margin call was close to the mark. The total was nowhere near it.

Owen Dagnall did the damage early, scoring in the 14th minute to put St Helens up 0-4. Jonny Lomax added a penalty goal 11 minutes later and that was the entire scoreboard for the day. No further points from either side. Once St Helens got to 0-6 they didn't need any more, and Leeds never found a way back into it.

The ratings said this should have been a Leeds night. Their forward pack graded out at 843 to 842, next to nothing in it, but the hooker gap was enormous: 939 to 600. That kind of edge usually shows up in go-forward and it did, Leeds out-gained St Helens 1,308 metres to 1,123. Trouble is, running the ball and doing something with it are different jobs, and St Helens had the better answer on the second one.

St Helens broke the line three times to Leeds' two and racked up 36 tackle busts to 29, sharper with fewer touches. They also held onto the footy, just 8 errors against Leeds' 17, and that discipline held up at the play-the-ball too, conceding 10 penalties to Leeds' 5 but still finding a way to make their sets count more. Leeds had the cleaner discipline sheet and it didn't matter, because St Helens made their limited possession hurt and Leeds couldn't turn a metres advantage into points.

Form lines pointed the other way pre-match. Leeds arrived at WWLWW, St Helens at LWWWW, and St Helens had been the meaner defensive side across their last five, conceding 9.6 points a game to Leeds' 17.2. That defensive form was the real tell. Six points against was actually generous by their own recent standard, and it was more than enough given Leeds couldn't buy a try.

Leeds' backs rated stronger going in, 1061 to 1030, and their halves too, 792 to 762, but none of it translated to points on the night. Every metre they built came back to nothing once it hit the red zone. St Helens didn't need the raw yardage, they needed the moments, and they got both of theirs inside the first 25 minutes.

Alphr's model finished 2 from 15 on this one, a reminder that a reasonable margin call can still sit on top of a result nobody saw shaping up this way. The gap between 41 points expected and 6 delivered is about as wide as these things get. Right team, wrong game entirely.

**Key Match Stats**

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| **1,308** | Run metres | 1,123 |
| 2 | Line breaks | **3** |
| 29 | Tackle busts | **36** |
| **18** | Offloads | 6 |
| 17 | Errors | **8** |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 10 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Tries | 1 |
| 0/0 | Goals | 1/2 |
| 5 | Penalties Conceded | 10 |
| 17 | Errors | 8 |
| 0 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

St Helens defied the model's 66% prediction for Leeds Rhinos, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 1.7 was reasonable against the actual 6-point result. The game's 6 points came in 35 points lower than the predicted 41. The model went 2/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (44/100) — penalties Leeds Rhinos 5 · St Helens 10.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leeds Rhinos to win — model probability 65.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** St Helens — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Leeds Rhinos 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: St Helens by 2 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Leeds Rhinos here: 66% to see off St Helens. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leeds Rhinos sit 39 ELO points clear, 1670 to 1631.

Leeds Rhinos own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The margin model has St Helens by 1.7, with the two sides combining for about 41. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Leeds Rhinos to win, not to win big.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 24.8pts | Avg Score | 27.8pts |
| 17.2pts | Avg Conceded | 9.6pts |
| 7.6pts | Avg Margin | 18.2pts |
| 1322.0m | Run Metres | 1090.8m |
| 5.8 | Clean Breaks | 6.2 |
| 303.4 | Tackles | 238.8 |
| 11.6 | Errors | 10.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | R13 W · R14 W · R15 L · R16 W · R17 W | 24.8 |
| St Helens | R13 L · R14 W · R15 W · R16 W · R17 W | 27.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Leeds Rhinos lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R25 | St Helens | 6 – 34 | Leeds Rhinos | Leeds Rhinos 65% ✓ |
| 2026 | R13 | Leeds Rhinos | 24 – 16 | St Helens | St Helens 53% ✗ |
| 2025 | EF | Leeds Rhinos | 14 – 16 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2025 | R15 | St Helens | 18 – 4 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |
| 2025 | R10 | St Helens | 4 – 17 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Leeds Rhinos' best path is the right edge: Super League's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.35 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 3rd there (0.47 conceded/game). Key man: Lumb, 10 tries in that channel this season.
- St Helens' best path is the left edge: Super League's 4th-ranked left edge attack (1.24 tries/game) runs at a Leeds Rhinos defence ranked 4th there (0.82 conceded/game). Key man: Sironen, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Leeds Rhinos | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.76/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.82/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.24/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.53/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.47/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.88/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.94/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.53/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Right | 1.35/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.41/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.59/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.47/g (def 3rd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th | 5th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 5 | 13 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 126m/g | 177m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3/g | 5.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93% | 91.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 33 · 24 | 49 · 19 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 2.3/g |
| Run Metres | 578m/g | 465m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 18.8/g | 17.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.5/g | 3.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.4% | 83.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 5 | 11 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 325m/g | 323m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.9/g | 9.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.1% | 93.3% |

**Who scores on St Helens** — Centres 0.36/g (lg 0.39) -8% · Five-Eighths 0.15/g (lg 0.18) -17% · Wingers 0.66/g (lg 0.88) -25%
**Who scores on Leeds Rhinos** — Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.04) +75% · Hookers 0.1/g (lg 0.09) +11% · Centres 0.38/g (lg 0.39) -3%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at AMT Headingley Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Leeds Rhinos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lachlan Miller | FB | 5 in 13g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/4g | 5/20g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.72 AI 28% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $29.40 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Alfie Edgell | WG | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 4/17g | 9% | — | — |
| 3 | Harry Newman | CE | 7 in 17g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·2·0) | 2/12g | 9/20g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.02 AI 35% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $24.49 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Ash Handley | CE | 4 in 17g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 16/22g | 10/17g | 34% | — | — |
| 5 | Ryan Hall | WG | 6 in 15g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/15g | 4/10g | 38% | — | — |
| 6 | Jake Connor | 5/8 | 4 in 17g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/20g | 4/10g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Brodie Croft | HB | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 7/19g | 18% | — | — |
| 8 | Mikolaj Oledzki | PR | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/15g | 1/18g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Jarrod O'Connor | HK | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 1/21g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Cooper Jenkins | PR | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Kallum Watkins | 2R | 5 in 14g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 8/21g | 3/7g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | James Mcdonnell | 2R | 6 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 3/21g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Cam Smith | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Andy Ackers | INT | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/13g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Lisone | INT | 4 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 3/19g | 14% | — | — |
| 16 | Keenan Palasia | INT | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/9g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | James Bentley | INT | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 2/14g | 8% | — | — |

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Feldt | FB | 12 in 8g | 12/8g (1·1·1·0·4·0·3·2) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 75% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 72% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.89 AI 28% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Harry Robertson | WG | 8 in 12g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.55 AI 29% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Daryl Clark | CE | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 6/24g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 4 | Tristan Sailor | CE | 12 in 17g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·2·0·0·1·2·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 37% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.84 AI 38% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | George Delaney | WG | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 6 | Owen Dagnall | 5/8 | 4 in 6g | 4/6g (0·0·1·1·2·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.40 AI 45% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $20.06 AI 13% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 14' |
| 7 | Jake Wingfield | HB | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 8 | Jake Burns | PR | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 9 | Jonny Lomax | HK | 2 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 10 | Curtis Sironen | PR | 5 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 2/7g | 0/0g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.50 AI 30% ✗ No try | — |
| 11 | Moses Mbye | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Alex Walmsley | 2R | 3 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 7/18g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Agnatius Paasi | LK | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 14 | Mark Percival | INT | 3 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 5/15g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 15 | Matt Whitley | INT | 3 in 16g | 3/10g (2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/16g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 16 | Matty Lees | INT | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Jon Bennison | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Leeds Rhinos 1670 · St Helens 1631 · ELO difference: 39 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | St Helens |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | St Helens |

**Model Confidence: 66%** — Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:15 UTC (latest tip update)