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Super League | Round 18

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AMT HEADINGLEY STADIUM • FRIDAY 11 JULY, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
LEE

Leeds Rhinos

06
STH

St Helens

❌ Upset — model favoured Leeds Rhinos at 66%

AI Win Probability

66%Leeds RhinosFavourite

Leeds Rhinos

66%

St Helens

34%

AI Match Overview

Leeds Rhinos are clear favourites here at 66%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over St Helens. The model sees Leeds Rhinos ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Leeds Rhinos carry a 39-point ELO rating advantage (1670 vs 1631). The margin model predicts St Helens by 1.7 points with a combined total of 41.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Leeds Rhinos to Win @1.49

Lost ✗

Edge

-1.2%

Line / Spread

St Helens -1.7 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

St Helens 1-12 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Leeds Rhinos
R13W
R14W
R15L
R16W
R17W

older → newer

24.8
St Helens
R13L
R14W
R15W
R16W
R17W
27.8

Avg Conceded

17.2

Leeds Rhinos

9.6

St Helens

Avg Margin

7.6

Leeds Rhinos

18.2

St Helens

Run Metres

1322

Leeds Rhinos

1091

St Helens

Clean Breaks

5.8

Leeds Rhinos

6.2

St Helens

H2H History (Last 5)St Helens lead 4-1
Sep 2025LEE 14 - 16 STH
Jun 2025LEE 4 - 18 STH
May 2025LEE 17 - 4 STH
Feb 2024LEE 8 - 18 STH
Feb 2024LEE 10 - 40 STH
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

LEE
1670Overall1631
STH
ELO difference: +39 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

843Forwards842
Best: 1144EvenBest: 1039
1061Backs1030
Best: 1239LEE +31Best: 1165
792Halves762
Best: 792LEE +30Best: 762
939Hooker600
LEE +339

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

LEE
Stat
STH
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
24.8pts
Avg Score
27.8pts
17.2pts
Avg Conceded
9.6pts
7.6pts
Avg Margin
18.2pts
1322.0m
Run Metres
1090.8m
5.8
Clean Breaks
6.2
303.4
Tackles
238.8
11.6
Errors
10.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Rhinos
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Rhinos
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Rhinos
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
5
Halves Control9.0%
Rhinos
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Rhinos
7
H2H History6.0%
Helens

Model Confidence

66%

Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 2 points

Predicted total: 41 · Line: -1.7

2/4 match predictions correct