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Super League | Round 18

alphr.com.au

MKM STADIUM • THURSDAY 10 JULY, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
HUL

Hull

1610
WAK

Wakefield Trinity

❌ Upset — model favoured Wakefield Trinity at 55%

AI Win Probability

55%Wakefield TrinityFavourite

Hull

45%

Wakefield Trinity

55%

AI Match Overview

Wakefield Trinity hold the advantage at 55% win probability, though Hull are far from out of this at 45%. The model sees Wakefield Trinity ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Wakefield Trinity carry a 152-point ELO rating advantage (1562 vs 1410).

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Wakefield Trinity to Win @2.50

Lost ✗

Edge

+14.7%

Line / Spread

Hull +0.1 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Hull Draw @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Hull
R13W
R14L
R15W
R16L
R17L

older → newer

20.4
Wakefield Trinity
R13L
R14L
R15W
R16L
R17W
21.6

Avg Conceded

13.0

Hull

19.2

Wakefield Trinity

Avg Margin

7.4

Hull

2.4

Wakefield Trinity

Run Metres

1019

Hull

1090

Wakefield Trinity

Clean Breaks

4.6

Hull

3.4

Wakefield Trinity

H2H History (Last 5)Hull lead 3-2
Mar 2026HUL 10 - 14 WAK
Apr 2025HUL 16 - 12 WAK
Aug 2023HUL 42 - 4 WAK
May 2023HUL 26 - 6 WAK
Aug 2022HUL 18 - 26 WAK
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

ELO–Market Disagreement

Wakefield Trinity hold the ELO advantage (1562 vs 1410), but the market favours Hull (@1.67).

The model sides with ELO, Wakefield Trinity predicted to win despite longer odds.

📊Team ELO Ratings

HUL
1410Overall1562
WAK
ELO difference: -152 in favour of Wakefield Trinity

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

734Forwards828
Best: 919WAK +94Best: 961
873Backs1047
Best: 1054WAK +175Best: 1322
811Halves1139
Best: 811WAK +328Best: 1139
744Hooker600
HUL +144

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HUL
Stat
WAK
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
20.4pts
Avg Score
21.6pts
13.0pts
Avg Conceded
19.2pts
7.4pts
Avg Margin
2.4pts
1019.2m
Run Metres
1090.4m
4.6
Clean Breaks
3.4
307.4
Tackles
279.6
11.8
Errors
8.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Trinity
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Trinity
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Trinity
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
5
Halves Control9.0%
Trinity
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Trinity
7
H2H History6.0%
Hull

Model Confidence

55%

Wakefield Trinity predicted to win by 0 points

Predicted total: 39 · Line: +0.1

2/4 match predictions correct