# Hull FC v Wakefield Trinity — Super League Round 18 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hull FC 16 – 10 Wakefield Trinity

_Hull FC hold off a fast-finishing Wakefield Trinity._

Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hull FC 45% / Wakefield Trinity 55% · MKM Stadium · Thu, 10 July, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Hull FC: Zak Hardaker (54'), Jordan Rapana (60' Tipped ⚡), Lewis Martin (66' Tipped ⚡) · Wakefield Trinity: Max Jowitt (35' 1st Tipped 🎯)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wakefield Trinity | 55% | Lost |
| Hull FC | 45% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 0.1 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hull FC vs Wakefield Trinity Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 18 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:15 pm_

Hull FC 16–10 Wakefield Trinity in Super League Round 18 at MKM Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Hull FC held off Wakefield Trinity 16–10 at MKM Stadium.

Max Jowitt opened the scoring; Hull FC crossed through Zak Hardaker, Jordan Rapana and Lewis Martin; Wakefield Trinity scored through Max Jowitt.

**Model Report Card**

Hull FC defied the model's 55% prediction for Wakefield Trinity, a notable result. The predicted margin of 0.1 was reasonable against the actual 6-point result. The model went 4/15 on this match.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wakefield Trinity to win — model probability 54.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Hull FC — model probability 54.7% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Wakefield Trinity 1-12 — model probability 54.7% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hull FC by 0 · Predicted total: 39

### H2H History (Last 5) — Hull FC lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R15 | Hull FC | 10 – 36 | Wakefield Trinity | Wakefield Trinity 81% ✓ |
| 2026 | R4 | Wakefield Trinity | 14 – 10 | Hull FC | Wakefield Trinity 72% ✓ |
| 2025 | R5 | Wakefield Trinity | 12 – 16 | Hull FC | not priced |
| 2023 | R21 | Hull FC | 42 – 4 | Wakefield Trinity | not priced |
| 2023 | R12 | Wakefield Trinity | 6 – 26 | Hull FC | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Hull's best path is the left edge: Super League's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1.18 tries/game) runs at a Wakefield Trinity defence ranked 3rd there (0.76 conceded/game). Key man: Martin, 12 tries in that channel this season.
- Wakefield Trinity's best path is the middle: Super League's 3rd-ranked middle attack (2.24 tries/game) runs at a Hull defence ranked 6th there (1.29 conceded/game). Key man: Jowitt, 10 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Hull FC | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.18/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.88/g (def 7th) | 0.59/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 0.76/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.24/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.29/g (def 6th) | 2.24/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.94/g (def 5th) |
| Right | 0.82/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.76/g (def 5th) | 1.06/g (att 5th) · concedes 1/g (def 9th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Hull FC | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 7 | 12 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 1.9/g |
| Run Metres | 134m/g | 90m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.9/g | 2.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.3% | 89.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Hull FC | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 9th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 31 · 32 | 29 · 34 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 373m/g | 434m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.1/g | 12.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.6/g | 2.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80.4% | 83.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Hull FC | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 5 | 19 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 352m/g | 340m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.8/g | 6.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.1% | 94.8% |

**Who scores on Wakefield Trinity** — Halfbacks 0.23/g (lg 0.14) +64% · Fullbacks 0.3/g (lg 0.19) +58% · Wingers 1.27/g (lg 0.88) +44%
**Who scores on Hull** — Hookers 0.13/g (lg 0.09) +44% · Halfbacks 0.2/g (lg 0.14) +43% · Fullbacks 0.27/g (lg 0.19) +42%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MKM Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hull** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zak Hardaker | FB | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/14g | 1/8g | 14% | — | 🏉 54' |
| 2 | Harvey Barron | WG | 7 in 13g | 6/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 8/16g | 47% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.30 AI 47% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $19.37 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Jordan Rapana | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.35 AI 31% ✓ Scored | 🏉 60' |
| 4 | Davy Litten | CE | 5 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 2/10g | 25% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.77 AI 39% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Lewis Martin | WG | 12 in 17g | 7/10g (0·0·1·1·1·1·2·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 9/18g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.92 AI 54% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $16.72 AI 22% ✗ Not first | 🏉 66' |
| 6 | Aidan Sezer | 5/8 | 2 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/6g | 0/7g | 8% | — | — |
| 7 | Cade Cust | HB | 4 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/7g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Herman Ese'ese | PR | 7 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/17g | 24% | — | — |
| 9 | Amir Bourouh | HK | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/6g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Liam Knight | PR | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Jed Cartwright | 2R | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/2g | 25% | — | — |
| 12 | Ed Chamberlain | 2R | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/11g | 2% | — | — |
| 13 | Yusuf Aydin | LK | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/17g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Jack Charles | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/10g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Jack Ashworth | INT | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/12g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Brad Fash | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 2/36g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Sam Eseh | INT | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 13% | — | — |

**Wakefield Trinity** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Rourke | FB | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| 2 | Lachlan Walmsley | WG | 7 in 11g | 7/10g (0·0·0·2·0·2·1·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.34 AI 46% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $19.68 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Corey Hall | CE | 3 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 3/6g | 0/2g | 18% | — | — |
| 4 | Cameron Scott | CE | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 6/17g | 22% | — | — |
| 5 | Jayden Myers | WG | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 6 | Max Jowitt | 5/8 | 10 in 14g | 8/10g (1·1·1·0·1·2·1·0·0·1) | 5/12g | 0/2g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.41 AI 45% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $20.15 AI 14% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 35' |
| 7 | Mason Lino | HB | 4 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/7g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Mike McMeeken | PR | 3 in 15g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/17g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Liam Hood | HK | 3 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 1/2g | 16% | — | — |
| 10 | Caleb Hamiln-Uele | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Isaiah Vagana | 2R | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 12 | Josh Griffin | 2R | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·2·0·0·1·0·1) | 3/4g | 1/11g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.56 AI 29% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Jay Pitts | LK | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Thomas Doyle | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Seth Nikotemo | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Harvey Smith | INT | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Caius Faatili | INT | 7 in 17g | 7/10g (0·0·2·2·2·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:15 UTC (latest tip update)