# Catalans Dragons v Warrington Wolves — Super League Round 18 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Catalans Dragons 20 – 24 Warrington Wolves

_Warrington Wolves run down a gallant Catalans Dragons._

Half time: 2 – 18 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Catalans Dragons 41% / Warrington Wolves 59% · Stade Gilbert Brutus · Sat, 12 July, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Catalans Dragons: Denive Balmforth (51'), Guillermo Aispuro-Bichet (59'), Denive Balmforth (73') · Warrington Wolves: Zack Gardner (14' 1st), George Williams (20' Tipped ⚡), Jordan Crowther (34'), Josh Thewlis (76' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warrington Wolves | 59% | Won |
| Catalans Dragons | 41% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 0.5 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Catalans Dragons vs Warrington Wolves Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 18 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:15 pm_

Catalans Dragons 20–24 Warrington Wolves in Super League Round 18 at Stade Gilbert Brutus. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had Warrington Wolves shading this by half a point, with a combined total of 42. What actually happened was Warrington winning by four, 24-20, with 44 points on the board. Close on both counts, as it turns out, but the path there was nothing like a half-point arm-wrestle. Warrington led 18-2 at the break, and the model's tight-game read only really came good in the final quarter.

Catalans Dragons opened the scoring through a Guillermo Aispuro-Bichet penalty goal in the 12th minute, 2-0. Then Warrington took over. Zack Gardner crossed two minutes later, George Williams added a second in the 20th, Josh Thewlis kicked the conversion and added a penalty goal of his own through Marc Sneyd, and Jordan Crowther's try in the 34th minute had Warrington up 18-2 at the break. That's not a half-point margin, that's a rout for forty minutes, and it explains why the full-time scoreline flattered the model's read of a tight one more than the opening half ever did.

The pre-match ratings help explain why that burst happened. Warrington's forwards rated at 1046 against Catalans' 764, and at hooker the gap was even bigger, 911 to 679. When a team is that far ahead in the middle of the field, four tries and 18 unanswered points before the break stops looking like an upset and starts looking like the form guide playing out. Warrington's recent record backed it up too: three wins from five coming in, averaging 22 points a game, against Catalans' one win from five and 34.4 points conceded on average.

Catalans weren't finished, though. Denive Balmforth crossed in the 51st minute, Aispuro-Bichet followed in the 59th and converted his own try, and by the 73rd minute Balmforth had his second to level the match at 18-18 after Aispuro-Bichet's conversion made it 20-18 in Catalans' favour. That's a 16-point second-half swing inside little more than 20 minutes, built on 32 tackle busts to Warrington's 17 and six offloads to four. Catalans found the go-forward that the first half never showed, and for a few minutes it looked like the home side would run down a 16-point deficit and steal it.

It didn't hold. Josh Thewlis scored in the 76th minute and converted his own try two minutes later to put Warrington back in front 24-20, and that's how it finished. Warrington's line breaks, three to two, and their extra penalty won late in a match decided by four points, mattered more than the raw metres, where Catalans actually finished ahead, 718 to 779 is closer than it looks when you consider Catalans conceded fewer errors, five to six.

So the model landed the winner, at 59% for Warrington, and it landed the total, 42 predicted against 44 actual, within two points. The margin call of 0.5 wasn't far off the truth either, even if it undersold just how lopsided the first half was and how furious the fightback got before Thewlis settled it. Four from fifteen prop bets got up, and the 1-12 margin band was the one that paid off, a fair reflection of a match that swung from a rout to a nail-biter and back again.

**Key Match Stats**

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 718 | Run metres | **779** |
| 2 | Line breaks | **3** |
| **32** | Tackle busts | 17 |
| **6** | Offloads | 4 |
| **5** | Errors | 6 |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 4 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 4 |
| 4/5 | Goals | 4/5 |
| 3 | Penalties Conceded | 4 |
| 5 | Errors | 6 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Warrington Wolves to win at 59% probability. The predicted margin of 0.5 was reasonable against the actual 4-point result. Total score prediction of 42 was close to the actual 44, within 2 points. The model went 4/15 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (31/100) — penalties Catalans Dragons 3 · Warrington Wolves 4.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warrington Wolves to win — model probability 58.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Catalans Dragons — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Warrington Wolves 1-12 — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Catalans Dragons by 1 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Warrington Wolves are the call at 59%, but Catalans Dragons stay live at 41%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Warrington Wolves sit 116 ELO points clear, 1477 to 1362. Form leans Warrington Wolves' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Catalans Dragons.

On paper Catalans Dragons shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including Backline Quality, Halves Control and Venue Advantage. The model still sides with Warrington Wolves, which says ELO Difference and Forward Pack carry the most weight. Lean Warrington Wolves, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 11.2pts | Avg Score | 22.0pts |
| 34.4pts | Avg Conceded | 21.2pts |
| -23.2pts | Avg Margin | 0.8pts |
| 691.6m | Run Metres | 919.8m |
| 1.0 | Clean Breaks | 3.6 |
| 230.6 | Tackles | 262.4 |
| 7.6 | Errors | 8.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Catalans Dragons | R13 L · R14 L · R15 L · R16 W · R17 L | 11.2 |
| Warrington Wolves | R13 W · R14 L · R15 L · R16 W · R17 W | 22.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Warrington Wolves lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R16 | Warrington Wolves | 18 – 16 | Catalans Dragons | Warrington Wolves 73% ✓ |
| 2026 | R8 | Catalans Dragons | 38 – 22 | Warrington Wolves | Catalans Dragons 55% ✓ |
| 2025 | R22 | Warrington Wolves | 30 – 22 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |
| 2025 | R2 | Warrington Wolves | 18 – 12 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Warrington Wolves | 24 – 32 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Catalans Dragons' best path is the right edge: Super League's 10th-ranked right edge attack (0.41 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 10th there (1.18 conceded/game). Key man: Makinson, 4 tries in that channel this season.
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the left edge: Super League's 7th-ranked left edge attack (1.06 tries/game) runs at a Catalans Dragons defence ranked 9th there (1.24 conceded/game). Key man: Ashton, 9 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Catalans Dragons | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.29/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.24/g (def 9th (weak)) | 1.06/g (att 7th) · concedes 1/g (def 8th) |
| Middle | 0.59/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 2.06/g (def 10th (weak)) | 0.65/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 1.53/g (def 8th) |
| Right | 0.41/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 0.88/g (def 8th) | 0.94/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.18/g (def 10th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 9th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 9th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 20 | 4 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 25m/g | 106m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 0.6/g | 3.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.1/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.2% | 90.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 29 | 34 · 31 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 371m/g | 286m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13/g | 8.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.4/g | 1.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.2% | 78.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 11th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 11th (weak) | 10th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 17 | 3 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 175m/g | 257m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.6/g | 6.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.2/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.3% | 94.4% |

**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — Halfbacks 0.18/g (lg 0.14) +29% · 2nd Rows 0.31/g (lg 0.25) +24% · Props 0.14/g (lg 0.13) +8%
**Who scores on Catalans Dragons** — Five-Eighths 0.23/g (lg 0.18) +28% · Locks 0.05/g (lg 0.04) +25% · Props 0.16/g (lg 0.13) +23%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Stade Gilbert Brutus. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Catalans Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sam Tomkins | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Tommy Makinson | WG | 4 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·0·3·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 6/8g | 6/12g | 42% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Matthieu Laguerre | CE | 4 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 3/17g | 20% | — | — |
| 4 | Nick Cotric | CE | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/7g | 8% | — | — |
| 5 | Fouad Yaha | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.45 AI 44% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $20.49 AI 19% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Luke Keary | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Cesar Rouge | HB | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 3/21g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Chris Satae | PR | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 2/22g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Alrix Da Costa | HK | 3 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/10g | 3/39g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Romain Navarrete | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 0/33g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Tevita Pangai Junior | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Paul Seguier | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Oliver Partington | LK | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/13g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Julian Bousquet | INT | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 7/48g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Jordan Dezaria | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/37g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Franck Maria | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Denive Balmforth | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/4g | 12% | — | 🏉 51' 73' |

**Warrington Wolves** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Dufty | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.65 AI 41% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Josh Thewlis | WG | 7 in 15g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·1·1) | 4/9g | 2/4g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 69% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.59 AI 16% ✗ Not first | 🏉 76' |
| 3 | Connor Wrench | CE | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 30% | — | — |
| 4 | Zack Gardner | CE | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 14' |
| 5 | Jake Thewlis | WG | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (1·0·0·2·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.53 AI 64% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.89 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | George Williams | 5/8 | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 6/19g | 2/4g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.14 AI 50% ✓ Scored | 🏉 20' |
| 7 | Marc Sneyd | HB | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/16g | 1/2g | 10% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.98 AI 36% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Luke Yates | PR | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 1/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Sam Powell | HK | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/20g | 1/6g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Paul Vaughan | PR | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Sam Stone | 2R | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 12 | Lachlan Fitzgibbon | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Ben Currie | LK | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 5/17g | 1/5g | 10% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.81 AI 57% ✗ No try | — |
| 14 | Jordy Crowther | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Joe Philbin | INT | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/18g | 0/5g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | James Harrison | INT | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.65 AI 41% ✗ No try | — |
| 17 | Stefan Ratchford | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Catalans Dragons 1362 · Warrington Wolves 1477 · ELO difference: 116 in favour of Warrington Wolves

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Catalans Dragons |

**Model Confidence: 59%** — Warrington Wolves predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 2/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:15 UTC (latest tip update)