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Super League | Round 18

alphr.com.au

STADE GILBERT BRUTUS • SATURDAY 12 JULY, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
CAT

Catalans Dragons

2024
WAR

Warrington Wolves

✅ Model correct — backed Warrington Wolves at 59%

AI Win Probability

59%Warrington WolvesFavourite

Catalans Dragons

41%

Warrington Wolves

59%

AI Match Overview

Warrington Wolves hold the advantage at 59% win probability, though Catalans Dragons are far from out of this at 41%. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Warrington Wolves carry a 116-point ELO rating advantage (1477 vs 1362). Recent form favours Warrington Wolves with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Catalans Dragons.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Warrington Wolves to Win @1.55

Winner ✓

Edge

-5.6%

Line / Spread

Catalans Dragons +0.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Catalans Dragons Draw @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Catalans Dragons
R13L
R14L
R15L
R16W
R17L

older → newer

11.2
Warrington Wolves
R13W
R14L
R15L
R16W
R17W
22.0

Avg Conceded

34.4

Catalans Dragons

21.2

Warrington Wolves

Avg Margin

-23.2

Catalans Dragons

0.8

Warrington Wolves

Run Metres

692

Catalans Dragons

920

Warrington Wolves

Clean Breaks

1.0

Catalans Dragons

3.6

Warrington Wolves

H2H History (Last 5)Warrington Wolves lead 3-2
Apr 2026CAT 38 - 22 WAR
Aug 2025CAT 22 - 30 WAR
Mar 2025CAT 12 - 18 WAR
Feb 2024CAT 32 - 24 WAR
May 2024CAT 8 - 16 WAR
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

CAT
1362Overall1477
WAR
ELO difference: -116 in favour of Warrington Wolves

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

764Forwards1046
Best: 1004WAR +282Best: 1217
760Backs734
Best: 867CAT +26Best: 824
844Halves811
Best: 844CAT +33Best: 811
679Hooker911
WAR +232

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

CAT
Stat
WAR
1.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
11.2pts
Avg Score
22.0pts
34.4pts
Avg Conceded
21.2pts
-23.2pts
Avg Margin
0.8pts
691.6m
Run Metres
919.8m
1.0
Clean Breaks
3.6
230.6
Tackles
262.4
7.6
Errors
8.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Wolves
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Wolves
3
Backline Quality10.0%
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Wolves
5
Halves Control9.0%
Dragons
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Dragons
7
H2H History6.0%
Dragons

Model Confidence

59%

Warrington Wolves predicted to win by 1 points

Predicted total: 42 · Line: +0.5

2/4 match predictions correct