# Wakefield Trinity v Catalans Dragons — Super League Round 17 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wakefield Trinity 44 – 6 Catalans Dragons

_Wakefield Trinity outlast Catalans Dragons._

Half time: 28 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wakefield Trinity 79% / Catalans Dragons 21% · The Diy Kitchens Stadium · Sat, 05 July, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wakefield Trinity: Max Jowitt (1' 1st Tipped 🎯), Lachlan Walmsley (14' Tipped ⚡), Josh Rourke (17'), Lachlan Walmsley (21' Tipped ⚡), Josh Griffin (32' Tipped ⚡), Josh Rourke (41'), Mason Lino (59' Tipped ⚡), Tom Johnstone (76' Tipped ⚡) · Catalans Dragons: Tevita Pangai Junior (46')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wakefield Trinity | 79% | Won |
| Catalans Dragons | 21% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 11.9 predicted → 38 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wakefield Trinity vs Catalans Dragons Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 17 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:15 pm_

Wakefield Trinity 44–6 Catalans Dragons in Super League Round 17 at The Diy Kitchens Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Catalans Dragons arrived with the flashier spine on paper: halves rated at 1117 to Wakefield's 696, a hooker edge of 926 to 683, and backs stacked at 1116 to 820. Wakefield Trinity had the forward pack advantage, 934 to 846, and not much else the raw numbers would have flagged as decisive. What actually happened was Wakefield playing with the ball like it owed them money, while Catalans barely got a hand on it.

The scoreboard confirms it: 44-6, with Wakefield already up 28-0 at the break. Max Jowitt got things moving inside the first minute and converted his own try soon after. Josh Rourke crossed on 17 minutes, then Lachlan Walmsley's double either side of that had it 20-0 by the 22nd minute after Jowitt's conversion. Josh Griffin added a fourth try in the 32nd minute, Jowitt slotted a penalty goal on the stroke of half-time, and Rourke crossed again a minute into the second half to make it 34-0. Catalans' only points arrived through Tevita Pangai Junior in the 46th minute, with Tommy Makinson's conversion the extent of the reply. Wakefield finished the job through Mason Lino in the 59th minute and Tom Johnstone in the 76th.

The stat sheet reads like a directness clinic. Wakefield ran for 1,360 metres to Catalans' 489, broke the line nine times to nil, and racked up 32 tackle busts to 17. Thirteen offloads to three shows Wakefield were happy to keep the ball alive in contact, while Catalans, for all that backline pedigree, never found the go-forward to make it count. Errors were level at 11 apiece, so this wasn't a case of Wakefield simply avoiding mistakes. It was that every Catalans mistake cost more, because Wakefield were already running downhill by the time it mattered.

Catalans actually won the discipline count, conceding three penalties to Wakefield's four. Small mercies. It's the sort of stat that matters in a tight arm-wrestle and means almost nothing when you're down 34 points by half-time plus one minute.

Form lines had hinted something like this was live rather than a shock. Wakefield's last five brought an average score of 27.2 points and 4.2 clean breaks a game, with two wins from five. Catalans limped in on an average margin of minus 25.2 and only one win from five, though that solitary win was their most recent outing before this one. It wasn't enough to suggest they'd trouble a Wakefield side moving the ball as well as this.

Alphr's model had Wakefield as 79 per cent favourites off ratings of 1532 to 1393, tipping a win by 11.9 points on a combined total near 43. The favourite came home, no argument there. The margin call, though, was well short of what unfolded: a 38-point win rather than the predicted 12. The model went 7 from 15 on the night overall.

Catalans had the flashier spine and the raw metres to make a game of it in theory. What they didn't have was control when it counted, and against a Wakefield side running nine line breaks and 32 busts, that gap showed up on the scoreboard early and stayed there all night.

**Key Match Stats**

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| **1,360** | Run metres | 489 |
| **9** | Line breaks | 0 |
| **32** | Tackle busts | 17 |
| **13** | Offloads | 3 |
| 11 | Errors | 11 |
| 4 | Penalties conceded | **3** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Tries | 0 |
| 6/9 | Goals | 1/1 |
| 4 | Penalties Conceded | 3 |
| 11 | Errors | 11 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wakefield Trinity to win at 79% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 11.9 but the actual margin was 38 points. Wakefield Trinity led 28–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 38. The model went 7/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (11/100) — penalties Wakefield Trinity 4 · Catalans Dragons 3.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wakefield Trinity to win — model probability 78.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wakefield Trinity — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Wakefield Trinity 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Wakefield Trinity by 12 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Wakefield Trinity here: 79% to see off Catalans Dragons. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wakefield Trinity sit 139 ELO points clear, 1532 to 1393. Form leans Wakefield Trinity's way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Catalans Dragons.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Wakefield Trinity by 11.9, with the two sides combining for about 43. Wakefield Trinity to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 27.2pts | Avg Score | 10.0pts |
| 20.0pts | Avg Conceded | 35.2pts |
| 7.2pts | Avg Margin | -25.2pts |
| 1104.8m | Run Metres | 701.8m |
| 4.2 | Clean Breaks | 1.2 |
| 268.8 | Tackles | 216.0 |
| 6.8 | Errors | 6.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wakefield Trinity | R12 W · R13 L · R14 L · R15 W · R16 L | 27.2 |
| Catalans Dragons | R12 L · R13 L · R14 L · R15 L · R16 W | 10.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Catalans Dragons lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R21 | Catalans Dragons | 12 – 32 | Wakefield Trinity | Wakefield Trinity 72% ✓ |
| 2026 | R11 | Wakefield Trinity | 58 – 10 | Catalans Dragons | Wakefield Trinity 82% ✓ |
| 2025 | R9 | Catalans Dragons | 24 – 20 | Wakefield Trinity | not priced |
| 2023 | R25 | Wakefield Trinity | 10 – 18 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |
| 2023 | R13 | Catalans Dragons | 36 – 6 | Wakefield Trinity | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wakefield Trinity's best path is the middle: Super League's 3rd-ranked middle attack (2.13 tries/game) runs at a Catalans Dragons defence ranked 10th there (1.94 conceded/game). Key man: Jowitt, 9 tries in that channel this season.
- Catalans Dragons' best path is the right edge: Super League's 10th-ranked right edge attack (0.44 tries/game) runs at a Wakefield Trinity defence ranked 9th there (1.06 conceded/game). Key man: Makinson, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wakefield Trinity | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.56/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 0.81/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 0.31/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.25/g (def 10th (weak)) |
| Middle | 2.13/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 5th) | 0.63/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.94/g (def 10th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.94/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.06/g (def 9th (weak)) | 0.44/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 0.75/g (def 6th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 11th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 4 | 2 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 87m/g | 25m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.6/g | 0.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90% | 92.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 11th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th (weak) | 5th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 24 · 34 | 14 · 24 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 422m/g | 378m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 12/g | 13/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.9/g | 1.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83% | 85.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 18 · 3 | 1 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 346m/g | 179m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.3/g | 2.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94.8% | 92.3% |

**Who scores on Catalans Dragons** — Locks 0.06/g (lg 0.04) +50% · Props 0.17/g (lg 0.13) +31% · Five-Eighths 0.22/g (lg 0.18) +22%
**Who scores on Wakefield Trinity** — Halfbacks 0.23/g (lg 0.14) +64% · Fullbacks 0.3/g (lg 0.19) +58% · Wingers 1.3/g (lg 0.88) +48%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Diy Kitchens Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wakefield Trinity** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Rourke | FB | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/6g | 24% | — | 🏉 17' 41' |
| 2 | Lachlan Walmsley | WG | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·2·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/5g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.92 AI 54% ✓ Scored | 🏉 14' 21' |
| 3 | Corey Hall | CE | 3 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 2/7g | 2/8g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.87 AI 37% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Cameron Scott | CE | 2 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/5g | 22% | — | — |
| 5 | Tom Johnstone | WG | 7 in 16g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 8/11g | 3/8g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.22 AI 48% ✓ Scored | 🏉 76' |
| 6 | Max Jowitt | 5/8 | 9 in 13g | 7/10g (0·1·1·1·0·1·2·1·0·0) | 5/10g | 3/7g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.73 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.10 AI 19% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 1' |
| 7 | Mason Lino | HB | 3 in 16g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/8g | 10% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.72 AI 39% ✓ Scored | 🏉 59' |
| 8 | Mike McMeeken | PR | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/7g | 10% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.30 AI 47% ✗ No try | — |
| 9 | Harvey Smith | HK | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/7g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Caleb Hamiln-Uele | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Isaiah Vagana | 2R | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/7g | 4% | — | — |
| 12 | Josh Griffin | 2R | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·1·0) | 10/17g | 3/5g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.11 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 32' |
| 13 | Jay Pitts | LK | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 1/8g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Liam Hood | INT | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/6g | 18% | — | — |
| 15 | Thomas Doyle | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Jack Croft | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Caius Faatili | INT | 7 in 16g | 7/10g (0·0·0·2·2·2·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 5/8g | 31% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.89 AI 82% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.30 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |

**Catalans Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sam Tomkins | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Tommy Makinson | WG | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·3·0·0·0·1·0) | 7/9g | 0/0g | 44% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Clement Martin | CE | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Leo Darrelatour | CE | 2 in 5g | 2/5g (1·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 40% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 19% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Nick Cotric | WG | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 6 | Luke Keary | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Cesar Rouge | HB | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Romain Navarrete | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Alrix Da Costa | HK | 3 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/10g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Franck Maria | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Paul Seguier | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Bayley Sironen | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Oliver Partington | LK | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Julian Bousquet | INT | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Tevita Pangai Junior | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 46' |
| 16 | Chris Satae | INT | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 17 | Denive Balmforth | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wakefield Trinity 1532 · Catalans Dragons 1393 · ELO difference: 139 in favour of Wakefield Trinity

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Catalans Dragons |

**Model Confidence: 79%** — Wakefield Trinity predicted to win by 12 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:15 UTC (latest tip update)