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Super League | Round 17

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THE DIY KITCHENS STADIUM • SATURDAY 5 JULY, 10:00 AM AEST
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WAK

Wakefield Trinity

446
CAT

Catalans Dragons

✅ Model correct — backed Wakefield Trinity at 79%

AI Win Probability

79%Wakefield TrinityFavourite

Wakefield Trinity

79%

Catalans Dragons

21%

AI Match Overview

Wakefield Trinity are clear favourites here at 79%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Catalans Dragons. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Wakefield Trinity carry a 139-point ELO rating advantage (1532 vs 1393). Recent form favours Wakefield Trinity with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Catalans Dragons. The margin model predicts Wakefield Trinity by 11.9 points with a combined total of 43.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Wakefield Trinity to Win @1.35

Winner ✓

Edge

+4.8%

Line / Spread

Wakefield Trinity +11.9 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Wakefield Trinity 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Wakefield Trinity
R12W
R13L
R14L
R15W
R16L

older → newer

27.2
Catalans Dragons
R12L
R13L
R14L
R15L
R16W
10.0

Avg Conceded

20.0

Wakefield Trinity

35.2

Catalans Dragons

Avg Margin

7.2

Wakefield Trinity

-25.2

Catalans Dragons

Run Metres

1105

Wakefield Trinity

702

Catalans Dragons

Clean Breaks

4.2

Wakefield Trinity

1.2

Catalans Dragons

H2H History (Last 5)Catalans Dragons lead 4-1
May 2026WAK 58 - 10 CAT
May 2025WAK 20 - 24 CAT
Sep 2023WAK 10 - 18 CAT
Jun 2023WAK 6 - 36 CAT
Mar 2023WAK 24 - 38 CAT
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

WAK
1532Overall1393
CAT
ELO difference: +139 in favour of Wakefield Trinity

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

934Forwards846
Best: 1130WAK +89Best: 1000
820Backs1116
Best: 966CAT +297Best: 1231
696Halves1117
Best: 696CAT +421Best: 1117
683Hooker926
CAT +243

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WAK
Stat
CAT
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
1.0
27.2pts
Avg Score
10.0pts
20.0pts
Avg Conceded
35.2pts
7.2pts
Avg Margin
-25.2pts
1104.8m
Run Metres
701.8m
4.2
Clean Breaks
1.2
268.8
Tackles
216.0
6.8
Errors
6.6

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Trinity
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Trinity
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Dragons
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Trinity
5
Halves Control9.0%
Dragons
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
7
H2H History6.0%
Dragons

Model Confidence

79%

Wakefield Trinity predicted to win by 12 points

Predicted total: 43 · Line: +11.9

3/4 match predictions correct