# Salford Red Devils v Warrington Wolves — Super League Round 17 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Salford Red Devils 12 – 24 Warrington Wolves

_Warrington Wolves howl past Salford Red Devils._

Half time: 8 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Salford Red Devils 45% / Warrington Wolves 55% · Salford Community Stadium · Fri, 04 July, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Salford Red Devils: Ethan Ryan (22') · Warrington Wolves: Matthew Dufty (6' 1st Tipped ⚡), James Harrison (33'), Josh Thewlis (59' Tipped ⚡), Stefan Ratchford (72')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warrington Wolves | 55% | Won |
| Salford Red Devils | 45% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 3.0 predicted → 12 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Salford Red Devils vs Warrington Wolves Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 17 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:14 pm_

Salford Red Devils 12–24 Warrington Wolves in Super League Round 17 at Salford Community Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Warrington Wolves won 24-12 at Salford Community Stadium, and on the surface that reads like a fairly standard away win built on control. Dig one line into the stats sheet and it gets messier: Salford Red Devils were the tidier side with the ball, coughing it up just 5 times to Warrington's 10. A home side that looks after the ball better than the visitors and still loses by 12 has a story worth telling.

That story is mostly about what happened once the ball was in dispute. Warrington broke the line 4 times to 2 and racked up 33 tackle busts to Salford's 21, numbers that line up neatly with the pre-match positional read: Warrington's halves rated at 1024 against Salford's 600, and the hooker gap was just as stark at 1000 to 600. When the spine numbers are that lopsided, it tends to show up exactly where it did here, in the collisions and the half-breaks rather than the handling stats.

The scoreboard did have some early swing in it. Matthew Dufty opened the scoring inside 6 minutes and Warrington led 6-0, but Ethan Ryan crossed for Salford at the 22nd minute and Chris Hankinson kicked two penalty goals either side of the half-hour to have the home side up 8-6. That lead lasted about three minutes. James Harrison scored in the 33rd, Marc Sneyd's conversion made it 8-12, and that was the score at the break.

Salford dragged it level again early in the second half, Hankinson's third and fourth penalty goals making it 12-12 by the 51st minute. From there it was one-way traffic. Josh Thewlis crossed in the 59th, Sneyd added a penalty goal in the 65th, and Stefan Ratchford's try with the conversion in the 72nd put the game to bed at 12-24. Four unanswered scores to finish it, which is a fair description of how a 12-point margin can still feel like a squeeze until the last quarter of an hour.

Salford's discipline was actually the one category running in their favour, conceding 8 penalties to Warrington's 4, and yet that's the stat least connected to how this match was decided. It was won up front and through the middle, where Warrington's forward rating of 947 against Salford's 815 turned into a 109 metre edge in the run count, 873 to 764.

None of it should surprise anyone tracking form. Warrington came in on two wins from their last five, Salford on none, and the gap in the underlying numbers was brutal, Warrington averaging 881.6 running metres a game to Salford's 452. What played out at Salford Community Stadium was closer to that recent average than to a competitive derby.

Alphr's model had Warrington favourites by 3 points on a combined total of 42, and landed the winner at 55% with the margin banding right. It undercooked the final gap by 9 points, and the total came in at 36 rather than 42, but the shape of it, Warrington control building into a late pull-away, was there in the numbers well before kick-off. Three from fifteen on the finer detail is nothing to brag about, but the header call held up.

**Key Match Stats**

| Salford Red Devils | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 764 | Run metres | **873** |
| 2 | Line breaks | **4** |
| 21 | Tackle busts | **33** |
| 5 | Offloads | **7** |
| **5** | Errors | 10 |
| 8 | Penalties conceded | **4** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Salford Red Devils | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 2 |
| 4/5 | Goals | 4/5 |
| 8 | Penalties Conceded | 4 |
| 5 | Errors | 10 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Warrington Wolves to win at 55% probability. The predicted margin of 3.0 was reasonable against the actual 12-point result. Total score prediction of 42 was close to the actual 36, within 6 points. Warrington Wolves led 8–12 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 12. The model went 3/15 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (36/100) — penalties Salford Red Devils 8 · Warrington Wolves 4.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warrington Wolves to win — model probability 54.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Warrington Wolves — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Warrington Wolves 1-12 — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Warrington Wolves by 3 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Warrington Wolves are the call at 55%, but Salford Red Devils stay live at 45%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Warrington Wolves sit 298 ELO points clear, 1468 to 1171. Form leans Warrington Wolves' way: 2 from their last 5, against 0 for Salford Red Devils.

Warrington Wolves own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Warrington Wolves by 3.0, with the two sides combining for about 42. Lean Warrington Wolves, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Salford Red Devils | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 5.2pts | Avg Score | 19.6pts |
| 52.0pts | Avg Conceded | 25.0pts |
| -46.8pts | Avg Margin | -5.4pts |
| 452.0m | Run Metres | 881.6m |
| 1.0 | Clean Breaks | 3.2 |
| 190.4 | Tackles | 263.0 |
| 4.8 | Errors | 7.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Salford Red Devils | R12 L · R13 L · R14 L · R15 L · R16 L | 5.2 |
| Warrington Wolves | R12 L · R13 W · R14 L · R15 L · R16 W | 19.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Salford Red Devils lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R24 | Warrington Wolves | 12 – 25 | Salford Red Devils |
| 2024 | — | Salford Red Devils | 17 – 12 | Warrington Wolves |
| 2024 | R14 | Warrington Wolves | 14 – 25 | Salford Red Devils |
| 2023 | R25 | Salford Red Devils | 24 – 20 | Warrington Wolves |
| 2023 | R3 | Warrington Wolves | 36 – 20 | Salford Red Devils |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Salford Red Devils' best path is the right edge: Super League's 11th-ranked right edge attack (0.31 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 10th there (1.19 conceded/game). Key man: Watkins, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the right edge: Super League's 5th-ranked right edge attack (0.94 tries/game) runs at a Salford Red Devils defence ranked 12th there (2.69 conceded/game). Key man: Thewlis, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Salford Red Devils | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.31/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.56/g (def 12th (weak)) | 1.13/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.06/g (def 8th) |
| Middle | 0.31/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 2.94/g (def 12th (weak)) | 0.63/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 1.63/g (def 8th) |
| Right | 0.31/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 2.69/g (def 12th (weak)) | 0.94/g (att 5th) · concedes 1.19/g (def 10th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Salford Red Devils | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 9th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 10th (weak) | 9th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 14 | 4 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 102m/g | 107m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.8/g | 3.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.1% | 90.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Salford Red Devils | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 64 | 33 · 30 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 250m/g | 286m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.6/g | 8.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.2/g | 1.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85% | 79.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Salford Red Devils | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 11th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 10th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 20 | 3 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 135m/g | 255m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.5/g | 5.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.8% | 94.3% |

**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — Halfbacks 0.18/g (lg 0.14) +29% · 2nd Rows 0.32/g (lg 0.25) +28% · Props 0.14/g (lg 0.13) +8%
**Who scores on Salford Red Devils** — 2nd Rows 0.44/g (lg 0.25) +76% · Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.04) +75% · Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.09) +56%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Salford Community Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Salford Red Devils** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Brierley | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Ethan Ryan | WG | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/1g | 24% | — | 🏉 22' |
| 3 | Esan Marsters | CE | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/7g | 16% | — | — |
| 4 | Chris Hankinson | CE | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 1/4g | 16% | — | — |
| 5 | Nathan Connell | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.32 AI 46% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $19.51 AI 25% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Danny Richardson | 5/8 | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 7 | Jayden Nikorima | HB | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/4g | 15% | — | — |
| 8 | Jack Ormondroyd | PR | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Cain Robb | HK | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Chris Hill | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Dan Russell | 2R | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 9% | — | — |
| 12 | Toby Warren | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Shorrocks | LK | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/7g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Harvey Wilson | INT | 1 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/6g | 5% | — | — |
| 15 | Charlie Glover | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Tiaki Chan | INT | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Justin Sangare | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/6g | 2% | — | — |

**Warrington Wolves** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Dufty | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 53% ✗ No try | 🏉 6' |
| 2 | Josh Thewlis | WG | 6 in 14g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·1) | 5/8g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.96 AI 80% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.82 AI 16% ✗ Not first | 🏉 59' |
| 3 | Connor Wrench | CE | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| 4 | Rodrick Tai | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 57% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Jake Thewlis | WG | 6 in 9g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·2·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.04 AI 78% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.37 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | George Williams | 5/8 | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 10/17g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.27 AI 47% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Marc Sneyd | HB | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/12g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Luke Yates | PR | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Jordy Crowther | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Paul Vaughan | PR | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Sam Stone | 2R | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 12 | Lachlan Fitzgibbon | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Ben Currie | LK | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 5/15g | 0/0g | 10% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.94 AI 54% ✗ No try | — |
| 14 | Stefan Ratchford | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 72' |
| 15 | Joe Philbin | INT | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | James Harrison | INT | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 16% | — | 🏉 33' |
| 17 | Toby King | INT | 5 in 8g | 7/10g (2·0·1·1·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 10/15g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.94 AI 80% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.65 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Salford Red Devils 1171 · Warrington Wolves 1468 · ELO difference: 298 in favour of Warrington Wolves

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 55%** — Warrington Wolves predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 2/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:14 UTC (latest tip update)