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Super League | Round 17

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SALFORD COMMUNITY STADIUM • FRIDAY 4 JULY, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
SAL

Salford Red Devils

1224
WAR

Warrington Wolves

✅ Model correct — backed Warrington Wolves at 55%

AI Win Probability

55%Warrington WolvesFavourite

Salford Red Devils

45%

Warrington Wolves

55%

AI Match Overview

Warrington Wolves hold the advantage at 55% win probability, though Salford Red Devils are far from out of this at 45%. The model sees Warrington Wolves ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Warrington Wolves carry a 298-point ELO rating advantage (1468 vs 1171). Recent form favours Warrington Wolves with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Salford Red Devils. The margin model predicts Warrington Wolves by 3.0 points with a combined total of 42.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Warrington Wolves to Win @1.01

Winner ✓

Edge

-44.5%

Line / Spread

Warrington Wolves -3 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Warrington Wolves 1-12 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Salford Red Devils
R12L
R13L
R14L
R15L
R16L

older → newer

5.2
Warrington Wolves
R12L
R13W
R14L
R15L
R16W
19.6

Avg Conceded

52.0

Salford Red Devils

25.0

Warrington Wolves

Avg Margin

-46.8

Salford Red Devils

-5.4

Warrington Wolves

Run Metres

452

Salford Red Devils

882

Warrington Wolves

Clean Breaks

1.0

Salford Red Devils

3.2

Warrington Wolves

H2H History (Last 5)Salford Red Devils lead 4-1
Aug 2025SAL 25 - 12 WAR
Feb 2024SAL 17 - 12 WAR
Jun 2024SAL 25 - 14 WAR
Sep 2023SAL 24 - 20 WAR
Mar 2023SAL 20 - 36 WAR
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

SAL
1171Overall1468
WAR
ELO difference: -298 in favour of Warrington Wolves

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

815Forwards947
Best: 1000WAR +132Best: 1077
760Backs866
Best: 867WAR +106Best: 1044
600Halves1024
Best: 600WAR +424Best: 1024
600Hooker1000
WAR +400

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

SAL
Stat
WAR
0.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
5.2pts
Avg Score
19.6pts
52.0pts
Avg Conceded
25.0pts
-46.8pts
Avg Margin
-5.4pts
452.0m
Run Metres
881.6m
1.0
Clean Breaks
3.2
190.4
Tackles
263.0
4.8
Errors
7.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Wolves
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Wolves
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Wolves
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Wolves
5
Halves Control9.0%
Wolves
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Wolves
7
H2H History6.0%

Model Confidence

55%

Warrington Wolves predicted to win by 3 points

Predicted total: 42 · Line: -3.0

3/4 match predictions correct