# Leigh Leopards v Wigan Warriors — Super League Round 17 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Leigh Leopards 18 – 8 Wigan Warriors

_Leigh Leopards pounce on Wigan Warriors._

Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Leigh Leopards 24% / Wigan Warriors 76% · Progress with Unity Stadium · Fri, 04 July, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Leigh Leopards: Tesi Niu (49'), Edwin Ipape (66'), Owen Trout (79') · Wigan Warriors: Jake Wardle (4' 1st)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | 76% | Lost |
| Leigh Leopards | 24% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 7.5 predicted → 10 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Leigh Leopards vs Wigan Warriors Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 17 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:14 pm_

Leigh Leopards 18–8 Wigan Warriors in Super League Round 17 at Progress with Unity Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Wigan Warriors did most things right until they didn't. They finished with just 9 errors to Leigh's 13, comfortably the tidier side with ball in hand, and still walked away with nothing. That's rugby league for you.

The early signs backed up everything Alphr's model liked about them going in. Jake Wardle crossed inside four minutes, Adam Keighran added the conversion, and by the 35th minute a Keighran penalty goal had it out to 0-8. A forward pack rated 892 to Leigh's 820, a halves combination rated 713 to 610: all of it doing exactly what the numbers said it should. Wigan came in on four wins from their last five and an average of just 12 points conceded a game, and through the opening 35 minutes that defensive record held up.

Then it didn't. Leigh hit back through Tesi Niu in the 49th minute, Gareth O'Brien's conversion made it 6-8, and from there Wigan's night went sideways in a hurry. Edwin Ipape crossed in the 66th to put Leigh in front for the first time, O'Brien's boot made it 12-8, and Owen Trout finished it off in the 79th for the final scoreline of 18-8. Four tries to one, and Wigan's only answer all match was the Wardle try that started it.

The gap that mattered was in the ball-in-hand numbers that count for points. Leigh ran for 1,371 metres to Wigan's 1,283 and broke the line four times to Wigan's one. Wigan actually shaded a couple of the raw indicators, 38 tackle busts to 37 and 11 offloads to 9, so there was plenty of good work being done. But busting a tackle and busting the line are different things, and Leigh's backline, rated 1007 to Wigan's 934 coming in, made the difference where it counted: clean line breaks, three of them turning straight into tries.

Leigh came into this on the wrong side of most ledgers. A losing record across their last five matches, an average margin of minus 2 points compared to Wigan's plus 18.4, and a rating more than 200 points below Wigan's on Alphr's numbers. None of that mattered once Niu, Ipape and Trout got their names on the scoresheet in that second-half stretch.

Alphr's model had Wigan at 76 percent to win this one and expected the margin to land at 7.5 points in their favour. Instead Leigh won by 10. Wrong side, wrong margin, the full set: it's now 0 from 15 for the model on matches like this. Every so often the side with the worse numbers just plays the better forty minutes.

**Key Match Stats**

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| **1,371** | Run metres | 1,283 |
| **4** | Line breaks | 1 |
| 37 | Tackle busts | **38** |
| 9 | Offloads | **11** |
| 13 | Errors | **9** |
| 3 | Penalties conceded | 3 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 1 |
| 3/3 | Goals | 2/2 |
| 3 | Penalties Conceded | 3 |
| 13 | Errors | 9 |

**Model Report Card**

Leigh Leopards defied the model's 76% prediction for Wigan Warriors, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.5 but the actual margin was 10 points. The model went 0/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (15/100) — penalties Leigh Leopards 3 · Wigan Warriors 3.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wigan Warriors to win — model probability 76.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Wigan Warriors — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Wigan Warriors 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Wigan Warriors by 8 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Wigan Warriors here: 76% to see off Leigh Leopards. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wigan Warriors sit 228 ELO points clear, 1780 to 1552. Form leans Wigan Warriors' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Leigh Leopards.

Wigan Warriors own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Wigan Warriors by 7.5, with the two sides combining for about 41. Wigan Warriors to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 24.0pts | Avg Score | 30.4pts |
| 26.0pts | Avg Conceded | 12.0pts |
| -2.0pts | Avg Margin | 18.4pts |
| 1159.0m | Run Metres | 1291.0m |
| 6.6 | Clean Breaks | 6.2 |
| 275.6 | Tackles | 304.8 |
| 8.6 | Errors | 11.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | R12 L · R13 W · R14 W · R15 W · R16 L | 24.0 |
| Wigan Warriors | R12 W · R13 W · R14 W · R15 L · R16 W | 30.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wigan Warriors lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R21 | Leigh Leopards | 8 – 20 | Wigan Warriors | Wigan Warriors 63% ✓ |
| 2026 | R3 | Wigan Warriors | 54 – 0 | Leigh Leopards | Wigan Warriors 75% ✓ |
| 2025 | SF | Wigan Warriors | 18 – 6 | Leigh Leopards | not priced |
| 2025 | R11 | Wigan Warriors | 36 – 28 | Leigh Leopards | not priced |
| 2025 | R1 | Wigan Warriors | 0 – 1 | Leigh Leopards | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Leigh Leopards' best path is the left edge: Super League's 3rd-ranked left edge attack (1.38 tries/game) runs at a Wigan Warriors defence ranked 5th there (0.88 conceded/game). Key man: Brand, 6 tries in that channel this season.
- Wigan Warriors' best path is the middle: Super League's 1st-ranked middle attack (2.69 tries/game) runs at a Leigh Leopards defence ranked 7th there (1.44 conceded/game). Key man: Field, 18 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Leigh Leopards | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.38/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.81/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.5/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.88/g (def 5th) |
| Middle | 1.44/g (att 5th) · concedes 1.44/g (def 7th) | 2.69/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.69/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Right | 0.94/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.81/g (def 7th) | 1.38/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 3rd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 4 | 15 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 2.4/g | 2/g |
| Run Metres | 145m/g | 149m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.4/g | 5.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85% | 89.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 32 · 24 | 57 · 17 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 2.3/g |
| Run Metres | 561m/g | 524m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 18.5/g | 15.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.9/g | 4.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.1% | 83.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 9th (weak) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 12 | 10 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 375m/g | 379m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.7/g | 10.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94.3% | 93.7% |

**Who scores on Wigan Warriors** — Locks 0.04/g (lg 0.04) +0% · 2nd Rows 0.2/g (lg 0.25) -20% · Props 0.08/g (lg 0.13) -38%
**Who scores on Leigh Leopards** — Halfbacks 0.18/g (lg 0.14) +29% · Props 0.14/g (lg 0.13) +8% · Five-Eighths 0.19/g (lg 0.18) +6%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Progress with Unity Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Leigh Leopards** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bailey Hodgson | FB | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 7% | — | — |
| 2 | Keanan Brand | WG | 7 in 14g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·3) | 0/4g | 4/8g | 21% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.55 AI 42% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Tesi Niu | CE | 4 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 1/4g | 25% | — | 🏉 49' |
| 4 | Umyla Hanley | CE | 6 in 12g | 6/10g (3·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/6g | 9/17g | 30% | — | — |
| 5 | Josh Charnley | WG | 1 in 7g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/18g | 22/27g | 46% | — | — |
| 6 | Gareth O'Brien | 5/8 | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/18g | 4/25g | 12% | — | — |
| 7 | Lachlan Lam | HB | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 6/31g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Owen Trout | PR | 3 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 1/19g | 12% | — | 🏉 79' |
| 9 | Edwin Ipape | HK | 4 in 15g | 4/10g (0·1·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 7/26g | 32% | — | 🏉 66' |
| 10 | Joe Ofahengaue | PR | 3 in 7g | 3/7g (0·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/1g | 43% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.54 AI 42% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $21.09 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 11 | Frankie Halton | 2R | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 4/18g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Ethan O'Neill | 2R | 5 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 2/5g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.21 AI 48% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $18.74 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Isaac Liu | LK | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 15% | — | — |
| 14 | Jack Hughes | INT | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/25g | 3/25g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Alec Tuitavake | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Matt Davis | INT | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 4/28g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Ben McNamara | INT | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/7g | 14% | — | — |

**Wigan Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Field | FB | 18 in 15g | 11/10g (1·2·1·1·0·1·2·1·1·1) | 5/8g | 4/3g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 66% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.33 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Abbas Miski | WG | 7 in 6g | 9/10g (1·1·0·0·1·1·1·2·1·1) | 6/7g | 3/3g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.51 AI 65% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.75 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Adam Keighran | CE | 5 in 12g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·1·1) | 3/9g | 1/2g | 36% | — | — |
| 4 | Jake Wardle | CE | 9 in 15g | 6/10g (3·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/10g | 3/4g | 36% | — | 🏉 4' |
| 5 | Liam Marshall | WG | 8 in 15g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·1·0) | 7/10g | 1/2g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.04 AI 52% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.58 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Jack Farrimond | 5/8 | 3 in 8g | 3/8g (0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.36 AI 46% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Harry Smith | HB | 3 in 16g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 2/4g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Tyler Dupree | PR | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 1/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Brad O'Neill | HK | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Luke Thompson | PR | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Junior Nsemba | 2R | 5 in 16g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 1/2g | 28% | — | — |
| 12 | Liam Farrell | 2R | 3 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/12g | 1/4g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Kaide Ellis | LK | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Joseph Havard | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Patrick Mago | INT | 1 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 5% | — | — |
| 16 | Liam Byrne | INT | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Kruise Leeming | INT | 3 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 1/2g | 20% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Leigh Leopards 1552 · Wigan Warriors 1780 · ELO difference: 228 in favour of Wigan Warriors

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Wigan Warriors |

**Model Confidence: 76%** — Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:14 UTC (latest tip update)