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Super League | Round 17

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PROGRESS WITH UNITY STADIUM • FRIDAY 4 JULY, 10:00 AM AEST
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LEI

Leigh Leopards

188
WIG

Wigan Warriors

❌ Upset — model favoured Wigan Warriors at 76%

AI Win Probability

76%Wigan WarriorsFavourite

Leigh Leopards

24%

Wigan Warriors

76%

AI Match Overview

Wigan Warriors are clear favourites here at 76%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Leigh Leopards. The model sees Wigan Warriors ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. Wigan Warriors carry a 228-point ELO rating advantage (1780 vs 1552). Recent form favours Wigan Warriors with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Leigh Leopards. The margin model predicts Wigan Warriors by 7.5 points with a combined total of 41.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Wigan Warriors to Win @1.35

Lost ✗

Edge

+2.0%

Line / Spread

Wigan Warriors -7.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Wigan Warriors 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Leigh Leopards
R12L
R13W
R14W
R15W
R16L

older → newer

24.0
Wigan Warriors
R12W
R13W
R14W
R15L
R16W
30.4

Avg Conceded

26.0

Leigh Leopards

12.0

Wigan Warriors

Avg Margin

-2.0

Leigh Leopards

18.4

Wigan Warriors

Run Metres

1159

Leigh Leopards

1291

Wigan Warriors

Clean Breaks

6.6

Leigh Leopards

6.2

Wigan Warriors

H2H History (Last 5)Wigan Warriors lead 4-1
Mar 2026LEI 0 - 54 WIG
Oct 2025LEI 6 - 18 WIG
May 2025LEI 28 - 36 WIG
Mar 2025LEI 1 - 0 WIG
Feb 2024LEI 0 - 38 WIG
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

LEI
1552Overall1780
WIG
ELO difference: -228 in favour of Wigan Warriors

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

820Forwards892
Best: 1174WIG +72Best: 1181
1007Backs934
Best: 1278LEI +73Best: 1068
610Halves713
Best: 610WIG +103Best: 713
678Hooker600
LEI +78

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

LEI
Stat
WIG
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
24.0pts
Avg Score
30.4pts
26.0pts
Avg Conceded
12.0pts
-2.0pts
Avg Margin
18.4pts
1159.0m
Run Metres
1291.0m
6.6
Clean Breaks
6.2
275.6
Tackles
304.8
8.6
Errors
11.8

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Warriors
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Warriors
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Leopards
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Warriors
5
Halves Control9.0%
Warriors
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
7
H2H History6.0%
Warriors

Model Confidence

76%

Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 7 points

Predicted total: 41 · Line: -7.5

0/4 match predictions correct