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Super League | Round 17

alphr.com.au

MKM STADIUM • SATURDAY 5 JULY, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
HUL

Hull

613
STH

St Helens

✅ Model correct — backed St Helens at 71%

AI Win Probability

71%St HelensFavourite

Hull

29%

St Helens

71%

AI Match Overview

St Helens are clear favourites here at 71%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Hull. The model sees St Helens ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. St Helens carry a 196-point ELO rating advantage (1619 vs 1423). Recent form favours St Helens with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Hull. The margin model predicts St Helens by 2.7 points with a combined total of 43.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

St Helens to Win @1.80

Winner ✓

Edge

+15.9%

Line / Spread

St Helens -2.7 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

St Helens 1-12 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Hull
R12W
R13W
R14L
R15W
R16L

older → newer

24.4
St Helens
R12W
R13L
R14W
R15W
R16W
34.4

Avg Conceded

12.8

Hull

9.2

St Helens

Avg Margin

11.6

Hull

25.2

St Helens

Run Metres

1060

Hull

1172

St Helens

Clean Breaks

4.8

Hull

7.4

St Helens

H2H History (Last 5)St Helens lead 5-0
Apr 2026HUL 14 - 24 STH
Aug 2025HUL 10 - 16 STH
Feb 2024HUL 0 - 58 STH
Jul 2024HUL 6 - 46 STH
Sep 2023HUL 12 - 30 STH
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

HUL
1423Overall1619
STH
ELO difference: -196 in favour of St Helens

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

817Forwards852
Best: 1063STH +35Best: 1034
920Backs1225
Best: 1081STH +305Best: 1496
895Halves876
Best: 895HUL +19Best: 876
812Hooker1321
STH +509

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HUL
Stat
STH
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
24.4pts
Avg Score
34.4pts
12.8pts
Avg Conceded
9.2pts
11.6pts
Avg Margin
25.2pts
1060.4m
Run Metres
1172.4m
4.8
Clean Breaks
7.4
299.8
Tackles
249.4
10.6
Errors
8.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Helens
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Helens
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Helens
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Helens
5
Halves Control9.0%
Hull
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Helens
7
H2H History6.0%
Helens

Model Confidence

71%

St Helens predicted to win by 3 points

Predicted total: 43 · Line: -2.7

3/4 match predictions correct