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Super League | Round 17

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SEWELL GROUP CRAVEN PARK • SUNDAY 6 JULY, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
HKR

Hull KR

814
LEE

Leeds Rhinos

❌ Upset — model favoured Hull KR at 74%

AI Win Probability

74%Hull KRFavourite

Hull KR

74%

Leeds Rhinos

26%

AI Match Overview

Hull KR are clear favourites here at 74%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Leeds Rhinos. The model sees Hull KR ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Hull KR carry a 193-point ELO rating advantage (1826 vs 1633). Recent form favours Hull KR with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 4 for Leeds Rhinos. The margin model predicts Hull KR by 11.4 points with a combined total of 47.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Hull KR to Win @1.27

Lost ✗

Edge

-4.9%

Line / Spread

Hull KR +11.4 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Hull KR 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Hull KR
R12W
R13W
R14W
R15W
R16W

older → newer

43.0
Leeds Rhinos
R12W
R13W
R14W
R15L
R16W
27.8

Avg Conceded

6.4

Hull KR

16.8

Leeds Rhinos

Avg Margin

36.6

Hull KR

11.0

Leeds Rhinos

Run Metres

1391

Hull KR

1395

Leeds Rhinos

Clean Breaks

10.8

Hull KR

5.8

Leeds Rhinos

H2H History (Last 5)Hull KR lead 3-2
Mar 2026HKR 6 - 58 LEE
Aug 2025HKR 6 - 28 LEE
May 2025HKR 20 - 14 LEE
Sep 2024HKR 26 - 16 LEE
Jul 2024HKR 20 - 12 LEE
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

HKR
1826Overall1633
LEE
ELO difference: +193 in favour of Hull KR

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

893Forwards836
Best: 1078HKR +57Best: 1096
1236Backs874
Best: 1368HKR +362Best: 1049
907Halves1042
Best: 907LEE +134Best: 1042
1000Hooker728
HKR +272

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HKR
Stat
LEE
5.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
43.0pts
Avg Score
27.8pts
6.4pts
Avg Conceded
16.8pts
36.6pts
Avg Margin
11.0pts
1390.8m
Run Metres
1394.6m
10.8
Clean Breaks
5.8
294.4
Tackles
294.8
9.4
Errors
10.8

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
KR
2
Forward Pack12.0%
KR
3
Backline Quality10.0%
KR
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
KR
5
Halves Control9.0%
Rhinos
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
KR
7
H2H History6.0%
KR

Model Confidence

74%

Hull KR predicted to win by 11 points

Predicted total: 47 · Line: +11.4

0/4 match predictions correct