# Hull KR v Leeds Rhinos — Super League Round 17 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hull KR 8 – 14 Leeds Rhinos

_Leeds Rhinos hit back to trample Hull KR from 8 down._

Half time: 8 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hull KR 74% / Leeds Rhinos 26% · Sewell Group Craven Park · Sun, 06 July, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Hull KR: Rhyse Martin (10' 1st Tipped ⚡) · Leeds Rhinos: Sam Lisone (45'), Lachlan Miller (67')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | 74% | Lost |
| Leeds Rhinos | 26% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 11.4 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hull KR vs Leeds Rhinos Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 17 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:15 pm_

Hull KR 8–14 Leeds Rhinos in Super League Round 17 at Sewell Group Craven Park. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had Hull KR winning this by 11.4 points, backed by a 74% win probability and a ratings edge of nearly 200 points. Leeds Rhinos won it by 6. That's the kind of gap between forecast and result that gets filed under lessons learned.

The scoreboard at the break made the model look sound. Rhyse Martin scored inside 10 minutes, converted his own try, and Arthur Mourgue added a penalty goal to make it 8-0 to Hull KR at half-time. Everything about that first half fit the pre-match read: Hull KR's back line rated at 1236 against Leeds Rhinos' 874 was doing exactly what the numbers suggested it would.

Then Leeds Rhinos turned up. Sam Lisone crossed two minutes into the second half, Jake Connor converted and added a penalty goal, and by the 51st minute it was 8-8. Lachlan Miller's try in the 67th, converted by Connor, settled it at 8-14. Four unanswered scores after the break, and Hull KR never got back on the board.

The stat sheet explains why the second half belonged to Leeds Rhinos. They ran for 1,508 metres to Hull KR's 1,255, broke the line six times to two, and racked up 43 tackle busts against 28. That's not a marginal edge, that's a side finding go-forward that wasn't there in the first 40. Leeds Rhinos' halves pairing was rated stronger coming in, 1042 to 907, and it showed in the shape of their attack once they got parity on the scoreboard.

Hull KR's case is that they were the tidier side. Nine errors to ten, same penalty count at one apiece. In a game with just 22 points on the board, low error counts usually win you the arm-wrestle. It didn't here, because Leeds Rhinos made their own ball count for more when it mattered, particularly in that stretch either side of half-time.

Form lines make the result sting more. Hull KR arrived on a five-game winning streak, averaging 43 points scored and conceding just 6.4. Leeds Rhinos had lost one of their last five and were shipping nearly 17 points a game. On paper this was a mismatch. On the day, Leeds Rhinos' hooker and halves ratings translated into the sort of second-half territory game that Hull KR's defensive numbers hadn't been tested against lately.

Total points also undershot the model's number, with 22 scored against a predicted 47, so this wasn't the shootout anyone expected either. Hull KR's brand of footy, the one that produced 36.6-point average margins across their last five, needs quick ball and go-forward to fire, and Leeds Rhinos choked that off after the break.

Alphr's model went 1 from 15 on the round, and this result is the headline miss. A 74% favourite losing outright, with the margin out by 17.4 points, is as clean a reminder as you'll get that home form and ratings don't defend themselves. Leeds Rhinos turned up with the sharper structure when it counted, and Hull KR's second-half no-show is the story the full-time scoreline doesn't quite tell on its own.

**Key Match Stats**

| Hull KR | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 1,255 | Run metres | **1,508** |
| 2 | Line breaks | **6** |
| 28 | Tackle busts | **43** |
| 12 | Offloads | **15** |
| **9** | Errors | 10 |
| 1 | Penalties conceded | 1 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Hull KR | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 2 |
| 2/2 | Goals | 3/3 |
| 1 | Penalties Conceded | 1 |
| 9 | Errors | 10 |

**Model Report Card**

Leeds Rhinos defied the model's 74% prediction for Hull KR, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 11.4 but the actual margin was 6 points. The game's 22 points came in 25 points lower than the predicted 47. Leeds Rhinos trailed 8–0 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 8–14. The model went 1/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (20/100) — penalties Hull KR 1 · Leeds Rhinos 1.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull KR to win — model probability 73.8% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Hull KR — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Hull KR 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hull KR by 11 · Predicted total: 47

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Hull KR here: 74% to see off Leeds Rhinos. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hull KR sit 193 ELO points clear, 1826 to 1633. Form leans Hull KR's way: 5 from their last 5, against 4 for Leeds Rhinos.

Hull KR own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Hull KR by 11.4, with the two sides combining for about 47. Hull KR to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Hull KR | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 43.0pts | Avg Score | 27.8pts |
| 6.4pts | Avg Conceded | 16.8pts |
| 36.6pts | Avg Margin | 11.0pts |
| 1390.8m | Run Metres | 1394.6m |
| 10.8 | Clean Breaks | 5.8 |
| 294.4 | Tackles | 294.8 |
| 9.4 | Errors | 10.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | R12 W · R13 W · R14 W · R15 W · R16 W | 43.0 |
| Leeds Rhinos | R12 W · R13 W · R14 W · R15 L · R16 W | 27.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Leeds Rhinos lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R16 | Leeds Rhinos | 34 – 8 | Hull KR | Leeds Rhinos 65% ✓ |
| 2026 | R3 | Hull KR | 6 – 58 | Leeds Rhinos | Hull KR 71% ✗ |
| 2025 | R23 | Leeds Rhinos | 28 – 6 | Hull KR | not priced |
| 2025 | R9 | Leeds Rhinos | 14 – 20 | Hull KR | not priced |
| 2024 | R27 | Hull KR | 26 – 16 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Hull KR's best path is the left edge: Super League's 1st-ranked left edge attack (1.75 tries/game) runs at a Leeds Rhinos defence ranked 6th there (0.88 conceded/game). Key man: Broadbent, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Leeds Rhinos' best path is the right edge: Super League's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.44 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 2nd there (0.44 conceded/game). Key man: Lumb, 10 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Hull KR | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.75/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.44/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.81/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.88/g (def 6th) |
| Middle | 2.5/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.44/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.44/g (att 6th) · concedes 0.94/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 1.69/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.44/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.44/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.38/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Hull KR | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 20 · 2 | 5 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 213m/g | 123m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.8/g | 2.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.8/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.6% | 93.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Hull KR | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 5th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 53 · 15 | 32 · 24 |
| Try Assists | 2.3/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 587m/g | 568m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.7/g | 18.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 4.4/g | 2.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.6% | 85.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Hull KR | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 2 | 11 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 299m/g | 326m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6/g | 6.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.9% | 93.2% |

**Who scores on Leeds Rhinos** — Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.04) +75% · Hookers 0.1/g (lg 0.09) +11% · Fullbacks 0.19/g (lg 0.19) +0%
**Who scores on Hull KR** — 2nd Rows 0.23/g (lg 0.25) -8% · Hookers 0.08/g (lg 0.09) -11% · Wingers 0.76/g (lg 0.89) -15%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Sewell Group Craven Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hull KR** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arthur Mourgue | FB | 6 in 14g | 4/10g (0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/12g | 0/8g | 30% | — | — |
| 2 | Tom Davies | WG | 13 in 14g | 10/10g (1·1·0·0·0·2·0·1·2·3) | 10/14g | 7/11g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.39 AI 68% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.94 AI 19% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Peta Hiku | CE | 7 in 15g | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·1·0·1·1) | 2/4g | 12/20g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.60 AI 41% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Jack Broadbent | CE | 9 in 15g | 8/10g (0·0·2·0·0·1·2·1·2·0) | 2/7g | 9/15g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.81 AI 57% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.94 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Joe Burgess | WG | 8 in 11g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·2·1·0·1) | 6/15g | 15/17g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.41 AI 45% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Tyrone May | 5/8 | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/9g | 6/21g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.06 AI 25% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Mikey Lewis | HB | 15 in 14g | 11/10g (3·0·1·0·1·1·2·2·0·1) | 3/6g | 25/40g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.69 AI 60% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.03 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Sauaso Sue | PR | 3 in 15g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 3/5g | 6/28g | 20% | — | — |
| 9 | Michael McIlorum | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Dean Hadley | PR | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/15g | 1/37g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Jai Whitbread | 2R | 5 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 2/7g | 4/22g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Rhyse Martin | 2R | 0 in 4g | 4/10g (0·0·3·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.06 AI 25% ✓ Scored | 🏉 10' |
| 13 | Elliot Minchella | LK | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 4/43g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Jez Litten | INT | 4 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 6/45g | 16% | — | — |
| 15 | Jared Waerea-Hargreaves | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Sam Luckley | INT | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/32g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Kelepi Tanginoa | INT | 4 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/10g | 8/22g | 24% | — | — |

**Leeds Rhinos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lachlan Miller | FB | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 30% | — | 🏉 67' |
| 2 | Alfie Edgell | WG | 0 in 7g | 5/10g (4·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/1g | 11% | — | — |
| 3 | Harry Newman | CE | 7 in 16g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·2) | 3/11g | 0/3g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.81 AI 38% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $22.97 AI 26% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Ash Handley | CE | 4 in 16g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 9/16g | 0/1g | 34% | — | — |
| 5 | Ryan Hall | WG | 6 in 14g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/6g | 25/37g | 42% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Brodie Croft | 5/8 | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/3g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Jake Connor | HB | 4 in 16g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 5/15g | 0/3g | 18% | — | — |
| 8 | Mikolaj Oledzki | PR | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/13g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Jarrod O'Connor | HK | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Cooper Jenkins | PR | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Kallum Watkins | 2R | 5 in 13g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 2/16g | 1/4g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | James Mcdonnell | 2R | 6 in 16g | 5/10g (4·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 2/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Keenan Palasia | LK | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Cam Smith | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Lisone | INT | 3 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 12% | — | 🏉 45' |
| 16 | Tom Holroyd | INT | 3 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/5g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 17 | James Bentley | INT | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Hull KR 1826 · Leeds Rhinos 1633 · ELO difference: 193 in favour of Hull KR

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Hull KR |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Hull KR |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Hull KR |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Hull KR |

**Model Confidence: 74%** — Hull KR predicted to win by 11 points · Predicted total: 47 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/super-league/match/2025-r17-hull-kr-v-leeds-rhinos
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:15 UTC (latest tip update)