# Hull FC v St Helens — Super League Round 17 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hull FC 6 – 13 St Helens

_St Helens march in over Hull FC._

Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hull FC 29% / St Helens 71% · MKM Stadium · Sat, 05 July, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Hull FC: Davy Litten (52') · St Helens: Kyle Feldt (14' 1st Tipped 🎯), Kyle Feldt (44' 1st Tipped 🎯)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | 71% | Won |
| Hull FC | 29% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.7 predicted → 7 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hull FC vs St Helens Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 17 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:14 pm_

Hull FC 6–13 St Helens in Super League Round 17 at MKM Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

St Helens held off Hull FC 13–6 at MKM Stadium.

Kyle Feldt opened the scoring; Hull FC crossed through Davy Litten; St Helens scored through Kyle Feldt (2).

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted St Helens to win at 71% probability. The predicted margin of 2.7 was reasonable against the actual 7-point result. The game's 19 points came in 24 points lower than the predicted 43. The model went 4/15 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Helens to win — model probability 71.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** St Helens — model probability 71.5% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** St Helens 1-12 — model probability 71.5% — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: St Helens by 3 · Predicted total: 43

### H2H History (Last 5) — St Helens lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R22 | St Helens | 18 – 32 | Hull FC | St Helens 63% ✗ |
| 2026 | R8 | Hull FC | 14 – 24 | St Helens | St Helens 66% ✓ |
| 2025 | R23 | St Helens | 16 – 10 | Hull FC | not priced |
| 2024 | — | St Helens | 58 – 0 | Hull FC | not priced |
| 2024 | R20 | Hull FC | 6 – 46 | St Helens | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Hull's best path is the left edge: Super League's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1.19 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 2nd there (0.5 conceded/game). Key man: Martin, 12 tries in that channel this season.
- St Helens' best path is the middle: Super League's 4th-ranked middle attack (2.06 tries/game) runs at a Hull defence ranked 7th there (1.38 conceded/game). Key man: Sailor, 9 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Hull FC | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.19/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.94/g (def 7th) | 1.31/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.31/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.38/g (def 7th) | 2.06/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.56/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Right | 0.88/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.69/g (def 5th) | 1.56/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 3rd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Hull FC | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 7 | 13 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 134m/g | 179m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.9/g | 5.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.2% | 91.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Hull FC | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 30 · 30 | 47 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 2.4/g |
| Run Metres | 374m/g | 461m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.4/g | 17.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.6/g | 3.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.8% | 84% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Hull FC | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 5 | 11 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 362m/g | 323m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.1/g | 9.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.1% | 93.5% |

**Who scores on St Helens** — Centres 0.36/g (lg 0.4) -10% · Five-Eighths 0.15/g (lg 0.18) -17% · Wingers 0.67/g (lg 0.88) -24%
**Who scores on Hull** — Hookers 0.13/g (lg 0.09) +44% · Halfbacks 0.2/g (lg 0.14) +43% · Fullbacks 0.27/g (lg 0.19) +42%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MKM Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hull** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zak Hardaker | FB | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 6/17g | 1/7g | 14% | — | — |
| 2 | Harvey Barron | WG | 7 in 12g | 7/10g (1·1·1·0·1·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/1g | 8/15g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.12 AI 50% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $18.10 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Jordan Rapana | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 4 | Davy Litten | CE | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/9g | 23% | — | 🏉 52' |
| 5 | Lewis Martin | WG | 12 in 16g | 7/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·1·2·1·0) | 1/3g | 9/17g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.65 AI 61% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.75 AI 22% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Cade Cust | 5/8 | 4 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 0/6g | 12% | — | — |
| 7 | Aidan Sezer | HB | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/6g | 0/6g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Herman Ese'ese | PR | 7 in 16g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/16g | 26% | — | — |
| 9 | Amir Bourouh | HK | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/5g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Liam Knight | PR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Jack Ashworth | 2R | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/11g | 4% | — | — |
| 12 | Ed Chamberlain | 2R | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/10g | 2% | — | — |
| 13 | Yusuf Aydin | LK | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/16g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Tom Briscoe | INT | 7 in 16g | 5/10g (2·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 3/15g | 2/13g | 30% | — | — |
| 15 | Jed Cartwright | INT | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 33% | — | — |
| 16 | Brad Fash | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 2/35g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Sam Eseh | INT | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 13% | — | — |

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tristan Sailor | FB | 12 in 16g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·1·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 39% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.07 AI 51% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.77 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Kyle Feldt | WG | 10 in 7g | 10/7g (1·1·1·0·4·0·3) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 71% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 73% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.54 AI 23% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 14' 44' |
| 3 | Harry Robertson | CE | 8 in 11g | 6/10g (2·1·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 43% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.58 AI 42% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Matt Whitley | CE | 3 in 15g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/16g | 1/3g | 16% | — | — |
| 5 | Owen Dagnall | WG | 4 in 5g | 4/5g (0·0·1·1·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.13 AI 50% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $18.21 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Jonny Lomax | 5/8 | 2 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 0/4g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Moses Mbye | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Alex Walmsley | PR | 3 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/17g | 0/4g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Daryl Clark | HK | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/16g | 2/3g | 18% | — | — |
| 10 | Matty Lees | PR | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/5g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Curtis Sironen | 2R | 5 in 13g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 1/7g | 0/3g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.55 AI 42% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Jake Wingfield | 2R | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 13 | Morgan Knowles | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Agnatius Paasi | INT | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 1/4g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | George Delaney | INT | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Noah Stephens | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Jake Burns | INT | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2) | 2/1g | 2/1g | 21% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.07 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:14 UTC (latest tip update)