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Super League | Round 17

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THE JUNGLE • THURSDAY 3 JULY, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
CAS

Castleford Tigers

1230
HUD

Huddersfield Giants

❌ Upset — model favoured Castleford Tigers at 65%

AI Win Probability

65%Castleford TigersFavourite

Castleford Tigers

65%

Huddersfield Giants

35%

AI Match Overview

Castleford Tigers are clear favourites here at 65%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Huddersfield Giants. Huddersfield Giants are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors, including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control, but Castleford Tigers counter with ELO Difference which tips the scales. Castleford Tigers carry a 77-point ELO rating advantage (1322 vs 1245). The margin model predicts Castleford Tigers by 7.5 points with a combined total of 43.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Castleford Tigers to Win @1.53

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Castleford Tigers +7.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Castleford Tigers 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Castleford Tigers
R12L
R13L
R14W
R15L
R16L

older → newer

14.4
Huddersfield Giants
R12L
R13L
R14L
R15W
R16L
14.0

Avg Conceded

30.2

Castleford Tigers

28.8

Huddersfield Giants

Avg Margin

-15.8

Castleford Tigers

-14.8

Huddersfield Giants

Run Metres

941

Castleford Tigers

990

Huddersfield Giants

Clean Breaks

3.4

Castleford Tigers

1.8

Huddersfield Giants

H2H History (Last 5)Huddersfield Giants lead 3-2
Mar 2026CAS 34 - 8 HUD
May 2025CAS 30 - 12 HUD
Feb 2024CAS 8 - 50 HUD
Sep 2024CAS 10 - 34 HUD
Aug 2024CAS 12 - 20 HUD
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

CAS
1322Overall1245
HUD
ELO difference: +77 in favour of Castleford Tigers

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

853Forwards891
Best: 1021HUD +39Best: 1013
795Backs907
Best: 905HUD +112Best: 1112
963Halves1000
Best: 963HUD +37Best: 1000
614Hooker788
HUD +174

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

CAS
Stat
HUD
1.0
Wins (Last 5)
1.0
14.4pts
Avg Score
14.0pts
30.2pts
Avg Conceded
28.8pts
-15.8pts
Avg Margin
-14.8pts
941.0m
Run Metres
990.2m
3.4
Clean Breaks
1.8
286.6
Tackles
297.2
8.2
Errors
7.6

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Tigers
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Giants
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Giants
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
5
Halves Control9.0%
Giants
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Giants
7
H2H History6.0%
Giants

Model Confidence

65%

Castleford Tigers predicted to win by 8 points

Predicted total: 43 · Line: +7.5

1/4 match predictions correct