# Warrington Wolves v Hull FC — Super League Round 16 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Warrington Wolves 24 – 10 Hull FC

_Warrington Wolves run down Hull FC._

Half time: 12 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Warrington Wolves 35% / Hull FC 65% · Halliwell Jones Stadium · Sat, 28 June, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Warrington Wolves: Josh Thewlis (4' 1st Tipped 🎯), Jake Thewlis (14' Tipped ⚡), Sam Powell (45'), Lachlan Fitzgibbon (48') · Hull FC: Harvey Barron (28' Tipped ⚡), Aidan Sezer (36')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull FC | 65% | Lost |
| Warrington Wolves | 35% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 4.0 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Warrington Wolves vs Hull FC Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 16 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:14 pm_

Warrington Wolves 24–10 Hull FC in Super League Round 16 at Halliwell Jones Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Warrington Wolves beat Hull FC 24–10 at Halliwell Jones Stadium. Leading 12–10 at half-time, Warrington Wolves pulled clear late.

Josh Thewlis opened the scoring; Warrington Wolves crossed through Josh Thewlis, Jake Thewlis, Sam Powell and Lachlan Fitzgibbon; Hull FC scored through Harvey Barron and Aidan Sezer.

**Model Report Card**

Warrington Wolves defied the model's 65% prediction for Hull FC, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.0 but the actual margin was 14 points. Warrington Wolves led 12–10 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 14. The model went 4/15 on this match.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull FC to win — model probability 64.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Hull FC — model probability 64.9% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Hull FC 1-12 — model probability 64.9% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hull FC by 4 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Hull FC here: 65% to see off Warrington Wolves. Form leans Hull FC's way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Warrington Wolves.

Hull FC own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Hull FC by 4.0, with the two sides combining for about 42. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Hull FC to win, not to win big.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 16.8pts | Avg Score | 25.6pts |
| 31.0pts | Avg Conceded | 11.6pts |
| -14.2pts | Avg Margin | 14.0pts |
| 815.2m | Run Metres | 1086.0m |
| 2.6 | Clean Breaks | 5.2 |
| 267.0 | Tackles | 293.6 |
| 7.4 | Errors | 10.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warrington Wolves | R11 L · R12 L · R13 W · R14 L · R15 L | 16.8 |
| Hull FC | R11 L · R12 W · R13 W · R14 L · R15 W | 25.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Warrington Wolves lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R25 | Hull FC | 14 – 16 | Warrington Wolves | Warrington Wolves 62% ✓ |
| 2026 | R13 | Warrington Wolves | 12 – 4 | Hull FC | Warrington Wolves 82% ✓ |
| 2025 | R26 | Hull FC | 34 – 2 | Warrington Wolves | not priced |
| 2025 | R7 | Warrington Wolves | 16 – 28 | Hull FC | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Warrington Wolves | 24 – 6 | Hull FC | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the left edge: Super League's 6th-ranked left edge attack (1.13 tries/game) runs at a Hull defence ranked 7th there (0.93 conceded/game). Key man: Ashton, 9 tries in that channel this season.
- Hull's best path is the left edge: Super League's 4th-ranked left edge attack (1.27 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 8th there (1.13 conceded/game). Key man: Martin, 12 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Warrington Wolves | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.13/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.13/g (def 8th) | 1.27/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.93/g (def 7th) |
| Middle | 0.6/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 1.67/g (def 9th (weak)) | 1.33/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.4/g (def 6th) |
| Right | 0.93/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.2/g (def 10th (weak)) | 0.87/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.67/g (def 5th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 6th |
| Defence rank | 9th (weak) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 9 | 5 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 100m/g | 132m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.1/g | 4.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.7% | 89.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 31 · 29 | 29 · 28 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 285m/g | 374m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.3/g | 9.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.7/g | 1.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80.5% | 79% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 10th (weak) | 5th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 13 | 10 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 253m/g | 363m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.1/g | 10.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94.4% | 91% |

**Who scores on Hull** — Fullbacks 0.28/g (lg 0.19) +47% · Hookers 0.13/g (lg 0.09) +44% · Five-Eighths 0.25/g (lg 0.18) +39%
**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — 2nd Rows 0.32/g (lg 0.25) +28% · Halfbacks 0.18/g (lg 0.15) +20% · Props 0.14/g (lg 0.13) +8%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Halliwell Jones Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Warrington Wolves** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Dufty | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Josh Thewlis | WG | 5 in 13g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 4/9g | 22/44g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.74 AI 39% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $22.49 AI 14% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 4' |
| 3 | Connor Wrench | CE | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 3/3g | 5/21g | 30% | — | — |
| 4 | Rodrick Tai | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 5 | Jake Thewlis | WG | 5 in 8g | 5/9g (0·1·0·0·2·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 3/5g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.30 AI 47% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $19.42 AI 18% ✗ Not first | 🏉 14' |
| 6 | Marc Sneyd | 5/8 | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/7g | 3/10g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | George Williams | HB | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 7/18g | 12/37g | 30% | — | — |
| 8 | Luke Yates | PR | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 2/17g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Jordy Crowther | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Paul Vaughan | PR | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 4/30g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Sam Stone | 2R | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Lachlan Fitzgibbon | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 48' |
| 13 | Ben Currie | LK | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 2/18g | 14/60g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Powell | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/22g | 3/24g | 2% | — | 🏉 45' |
| 15 | Stefan Ratchford | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | James Harrison | INT | 1 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 5/23g | 18% | — | — |
| 17 | Luke Thomas | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 9% | — | — |

**Hull** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jordan Rapana | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Harvey Barron | WG | 6 in 11g | 6/10g (0·1·1·1·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.29 AI 47% ✓ Scored | 🏉 28' |
| 3 | Tom Briscoe | CE | 7 in 15g | 6/10g (1·2·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 8/15g | 4/5g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.69 AI 40% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Davy Litten | CE | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 2/3g | 2/2g | 23% | — | — |
| 5 | Lewis Martin | WG | 12 in 15g | 8/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·1·1·2·1) | 1/4g | 1/3g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.49 AI 65% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.61 AI 19% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Aidan Sezer | 5/8 | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 2/6g | 6% | — | 🏉 36' |
| 7 | Cade Cust | HB | 4 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 12% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.66 AI 40% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Herman Ese'ese | PR | 7 in 15g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.08 AI 51% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.84 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 9 | Amir Bourouh | HK | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Liam Knight | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Zak Hardaker | 2R | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/18g | 2/6g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Ed Chamberlain | 2R | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |
| 13 | Yusuf Aydin | LK | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Jack Ashworth | INT | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Eseh | INT | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 13% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.04 AI 52% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.53 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 16 | Jack Charles | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Brad Fash | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Hull FC hold the ELO advantage (1456 vs 1436), but the market favours Warrington Wolves (@1.49). The model sides with ELO, Hull FC predicted to win despite longer odds.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Warrington Wolves 1436 · Hull FC 1456 · ELO difference: 20 in favour of Hull FC

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Hull FC |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Hull FC |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Hull FC |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Hull FC |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Warrington Wolves |

**Model Confidence: 65%** — Hull FC predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:14 UTC (latest tip update)