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Super League | Round 16

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HALLIWELL JONES STADIUM • SATURDAY 28 JUNE, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
WAR

Warrington Wolves

2410
HUL

Hull

❌ Upset — model favoured Hull at 65%

AI Win Probability

65%HullFavourite

Warrington Wolves

35%

Hull

65%

AI Match Overview

Hull are clear favourites here at 65%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Warrington Wolves. The model sees Hull ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. Recent form favours Hull with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Warrington Wolves. The margin model predicts Hull by 4.0 points with a combined total of 42.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Hull to Win @3.04

Lost ✗

Edge

+32.0%

Line / Spread

Hull -4 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Hull 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Warrington Wolves
R11L
R12L
R13W
R14L
R15L

older → newer

16.8
Hull
R11L
R12W
R13W
R14L
R15W
25.6

Avg Conceded

31.0

Warrington Wolves

11.6

Hull

Avg Margin

-14.2

Warrington Wolves

14.0

Hull

Run Metres

815

Warrington Wolves

1086

Hull

Clean Breaks

2.6

Warrington Wolves

5.2

Hull

H2H History (Last 5)Warrington Wolves lead 3-2
Sep 2025WAR 2 - 34 HUL
Apr 2025WAR 16 - 28 HUL
Feb 2024WAR 24 - 6 HUL
Jun 2024WAR 24 - 18 HUL
Mar 2024WAR 36 - 10 HUL
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

ELO–Market Disagreement

Hull hold the ELO advantage (1456 vs 1436), but the market favours Warrington Wolves (@1.49).

The model sides with ELO, Hull predicted to win despite longer odds.

📊Team ELO Ratings

WAR
1436Overall1456
HUL
ELO difference: -20 in favour of Hull

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

938Forwards853
Best: 1192WAR +85Best: 1227
868Backs1066
Best: 992HUL +197Best: 1204
922Halves957
Best: 922HUL +35Best: 957
1000Hooker697
WAR +303

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WAR
Stat
HUL
1.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
16.8pts
Avg Score
25.6pts
31.0pts
Avg Conceded
11.6pts
-14.2pts
Avg Margin
14.0pts
815.2m
Run Metres
1086.0m
2.6
Clean Breaks
5.2
267.0
Tackles
293.6
7.4
Errors
10.6

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Hull
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Wolves
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Hull
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Hull
5
Halves Control9.0%
Hull
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Wolves
7
H2H History6.0%
Wolves

Model Confidence

65%

Hull predicted to win by 4 points

Predicted total: 42 · Line: -4.0

0/4 match predictions correct