# St Helens v Salford Red Devils — Super League Round 16 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: St Helens 58 – 0 Salford Red Devils

_St Helens run riot over Salford Red Devils._

Half time: 20 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: St Helens 92% / Salford Red Devils 8% · The BrewDog Stadium · Sun, 29 June, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — St Helens: Kyle Feldt (7' 1st Tipped 🎯), Owen Dagnall (23' Tipped ⚡), Kyle Feldt (32' 1st Tipped 🎯), Morgan Knowles (37'), Daryl Clark (48'), Owen Dagnall (57' Tipped ⚡), Tristan Sailor (60' Tipped ⚡), Jake Burns (66'), Jake Burns (69'), Tristan Sailor (72' Tipped ⚡), Kyle Feldt (76' 1st Tipped 🎯) · Salford Red Devils: none

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | 92% | Won |
| Salford Red Devils | 8% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 24.8 predicted → 58 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St Helens vs Salford Red Devils Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 16 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:14 pm_

St Helens 58–0 Salford Red Devils in Super League Round 16 at The BrewDog Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

St Helens led 20-0 at the break, which already told you plenty. Salford Red Devils hadn't scored, hadn't broken the line once, and were being run off their feet. The only surprise from the second half was that St Helens found another gear entirely.

By full time it was 58-0. St Helens scored 38 unanswered points after half-time, with tries arriving in a steady procession from the 48th minute: Daryl Clark, then two more from Owen Dagnall and Tristan Sailor apiece, a double to Jake Burns, and Kyle Feldt rounding it out with his third in the 76th. Feldt had opened the scoring back in the 7th minute and was still crossing three quarters of an hour later. Nine tries in total, shared around six different players, with nobody let off the field early.

The stat sheet backs up what the scoreboard suggests. St Helens ran for 1,506 metres to Salford's 387, a gap that shows up everywhere else too: 11 line breaks to none, 45 tackle busts to 14, 15 offloads to 3. Salford actually looked after the ball better, coughing it up 7 times to St Helens' 10, and conceded fewer penalties, 2 to 0. None of it mattered. When you can't get out of your own half, tidy handling is just a footnote.

The positional numbers explain where this was decided, and it isn't quite where you'd expect. Salford actually rated ahead in the forward pack, 848 to 792, so this wasn't a case of being bullied up front on paper. It was the backline and spine that did the damage: St Helens held a big edge in the backs, 1181 to 798, and comfortably out-rated Salford in the halves, 942 to 707, with the hooker battle also going their way. Feldt and company only needed the ball in space, and St Helens kept finding it for them.

Form lines told the same story before a ball was kicked. St Helens arrived on a WWLWW run, averaging 30.8 points scored and just 9.2 conceded across their last five. Salford were the mirror image, LLLLL, averaging 8.4 for and 50 against. A 58-0 scoreline isn't an outlier against numbers like that, it's roughly the shape Salford's form had been threatening for weeks.

Alphr's model had St Helens at 92% to win, which held up easily enough. The margin read was the miss: 24.8 points projected, 58 delivered, more than double what was expected. The 25-plus margin band call still landed, so the model wasn't blind to a blowout, it just badly undersold the scale of it. Six from fifteen on this one, and the lesson is the same as always with Salford lately: when the losing run is this long and the concession average is sitting near 50, the ceiling on a bad night is higher than any model wants to admit.

**Key Match Stats**

| St Helens | Stat | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| **1,506** | Run metres | 387 |
| **11** | Line breaks | 0 |
| **45** | Tackle busts | 14 |
| **15** | Offloads | 3 |
| 10 | Errors | **7** |
| **0** | Penalties conceded | 2 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| St Helens | Stat | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Tries | 0 |
| 7/11 | Goals | 0/0 |
| 0 | Penalties Conceded | 2 |
| 10 | Errors | 7 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted St Helens to win at 92% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 24.8 but the actual margin was 58 points. St Helens led 20–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 58. The model went 6/15 on this match. The 25+ margin band call landed.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (40/100) — penalties St Helens 0 · Salford Red Devils 2.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Helens to win — model probability 91.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** St Helens — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** St Helens 25+ — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: St Helens by 25 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on St Helens here: 92% to see off Salford Red Devils. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: St Helens sit 428 ELO points clear, 1609 to 1181. Form leans St Helens' way: 4 from their last 5, against 0 for Salford Red Devils.

St Helens own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has St Helens by 24.8, with the two sides combining for about 46. St Helens to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| St Helens | Stat | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 30.8pts | Avg Score | 8.4pts |
| 9.2pts | Avg Conceded | 50.0pts |
| 21.6pts | Avg Margin | -41.6pts |
| 1102.8m | Run Metres | 606.8m |
| 6.8 | Clean Breaks | 2.2 |
| 263.8 | Tackles | 184.0 |
| 8.2 | Errors | 5.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | R11 W · R12 W · R13 L · R14 W · R15 W | 30.8 |
| Salford Red Devils | R11 L · R12 L · R13 L · R14 L · R15 L | 8.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — St Helens lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R14 | Salford Red Devils | 4 – 46 | St Helens |
| 2025 | R1 | St Helens | 82 – 0 | Salford Red Devils |
| 2024 | — | St Helens | 20 – 24 | Salford Red Devils |
| 2024 | R21 | St Helens | 17 – 16 | Salford Red Devils |
| 2024 | R15 | Salford Red Devils | 20 – 18 | St Helens |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- St Helens' best path is the right edge: Super League's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.47 tries/game) runs at a Salford Red Devils defence ranked 12th there (2.67 conceded/game). Key man: Robertson, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Salford Red Devils' best path is the right edge: Super League's 11th-ranked right edge attack (0.33 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 4th there (0.53 conceded/game). Key man: Watkins, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | St Helens | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.27/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.53/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 0.33/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 1.53/g (def 12th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.87/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.6/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 0.33/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 2.8/g (def 12th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.47/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.53/g (def 4th (strong)) | 0.33/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 2.67/g (def 12th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | St Helens | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 11th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 10th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 5 | 2 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 178m/g | 105m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.9/g | 2.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.7% | 88.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | St Helens | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 40 · 18 | 7 · 57 |
| Try Assists | 2.1/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 448m/g | 253m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 17.7/g | 8.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.5/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.6% | 85% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | St Helens | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 2 | 5 · 20 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 323m/g | 138m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.5/g | 3.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.6% | 90.7% |

**Who scores on Salford Red Devils** — 2nd Rows 0.44/g (lg 0.25) +76% · Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.04) +75% · Five-Eighths 0.27/g (lg 0.18) +50%
**Who scores on St Helens** — Centres 0.36/g (lg 0.4) -10% · Five-Eighths 0.15/g (lg 0.18) -17% · Wingers 0.68/g (lg 0.88) -23%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The BrewDog Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tristan Sailor | FB | 10 in 15g | 6/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·1) | 4/2g | 6/6g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.92 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.55 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 60' 72' |
| 2 | Kyle Feldt | WG | 7 in 6g | 7/6g (1·1·1·0·4·0) | 5/2g | 1/3g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.73 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.10 AI 18% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 7' 32' 76' |
| 3 | Harry Robertson | CE | 8 in 10g | 8/10g (2·2·1·0·0·0·1·0·2·0) | 4/2g | 3/5g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.95 AI 80% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.70 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Deon Cross | CE | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 4/7g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.02 AI 52% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Owen Dagnall | WG | 2 in 4g | 2/4g (0·0·1·1) | 1/1g | 1/2g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 23' 57' |
| 6 | Jonny Lomax | 5/8 | 2 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 13/58g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Moses Mbye | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Alex Walmsley | PR | 3 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 8/21g | 10/51g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.99 AI 53% ✗ No try | — |
| 9 | Daryl Clark | HK | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/21g | 5/21g | 14% | — | 🏉 48' |
| 10 | Matty Lees | PR | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 2/50g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Jake Wingfield | 2R | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/23g | 0% | — | — |
| 12 | Matt Whitley | 2R | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 6/19g | 5/18g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.33 AI 46% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Morgan Knowles | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 37' |
| 14 | Agnatius Paasi | INT | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 5/36g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | George Delaney | INT | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 2/27g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Noah Stephens | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/10g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Jake Burns | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/5g | 13% | — | 🏉 66' 69' |

**Salford Red Devils** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Brierley | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 20% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Ethan Ryan | WG | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/5g | 24% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Esan Marsters | CE | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 4 | Chris Hankinson | CE | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/12g | 1/5g | 18% | — | — |
| 5 | Jonny Vaughan | WG | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 6 | Danny Richardson | 5/8 | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/5g | 6% | — | — |
| 7 | Jayden Nikorima | HB | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 15% | — | — |
| 8 | Jack Ormondroyd | PR | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Kobe Rugless | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Chris Hill | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Matty Foster | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Dan Russell | 2R | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Harvey Wilson | LK | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Nathan Connell | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Justin Sangare | INT | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Charlie Glover | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Thomas Whitehead | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — St Helens 1609 · Salford Red Devils 1181 · ELO difference: 428 in favour of St Helens

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | St Helens |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Salford Red Devils |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | St Helens |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | St Helens |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | St Helens |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | St Helens |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | St Helens |

**Model Confidence: 92%** — St Helens predicted to win by 25 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 2/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:14 UTC (latest tip update)