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Super League | Round 16

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THE BREWDOG STADIUM • SUNDAY 29 JUNE, 10:00 AM AEST
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STH

St Helens

580
SAL

Salford Red Devils

✅ Model correct — backed St Helens at 92%

AI Win Probability

92%St HelensFavourite

St Helens

92%

Salford Red Devils

8%

AI Match Overview

St Helens are clear favourites here at 92%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Salford Red Devils. The model sees St Helens ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. St Helens carry a 428-point ELO rating advantage (1609 vs 1181). Recent form favours St Helens with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Salford Red Devils. The margin model predicts St Helens by 24.8 points with a combined total of 46.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

St Helens to Win @1.01

Winner ✓

Edge

-7.2%

Line / Spread

St Helens +24.8 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

St Helens 13-24 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
St Helens
R11W
R12W
R13L
R14W
R15W

older → newer

30.8
Salford Red Devils
R11L
R12L
R13L
R14L
R15L
8.4

Avg Conceded

9.2

St Helens

50.0

Salford Red Devils

Avg Margin

21.6

St Helens

-41.6

Salford Red Devils

Run Metres

1103

St Helens

607

Salford Red Devils

Clean Breaks

6.8

St Helens

2.2

Salford Red Devils

H2H History (Last 5)St Helens lead 3-2
Jun 2025STH 46 - 4 SAL
Mar 2025STH 82 - 0 SAL
Feb 2024STH 20 - 24 SAL
Aug 2024STH 17 - 16 SAL
Jun 2024STH 18 - 20 SAL
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

STH
1609Overall1181
SAL
ELO difference: +428 in favour of St Helens

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

792Forwards848
Best: 988SAL +55Best: 1000
1181Backs798
Best: 1319STH +382Best: 896
942Halves707
Best: 942STH +235Best: 707
1056Hooker1000
STH +56

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

STH
Stat
SAL
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
0.0
30.8pts
Avg Score
8.4pts
9.2pts
Avg Conceded
50.0pts
21.6pts
Avg Margin
-41.6pts
1102.8m
Run Metres
606.8m
6.8
Clean Breaks
2.2
263.8
Tackles
184.0
8.2
Errors
5.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Helens
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Devils
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Helens
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Helens
5
Halves Control9.0%
Helens
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Helens
7
H2H History6.0%
Helens

Model Confidence

92%

St Helens predicted to win by 25 points

Predicted total: 46 · Line: +24.8

3/4 match predictions correct