# Leeds Rhinos v Leigh Leopards — Super League Round 16 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Leeds Rhinos 48 – 30 Leigh Leopards

_Leeds Rhinos trample Leigh Leopards._

Half time: 24 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Leeds Rhinos 68% / Leigh Leopards 32% · AMT Headingley Stadium · Fri, 27 June, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Leeds Rhinos: Kallum Watkins (4' 1st), Lachlan Miller (14'), Cameron Smith (31' Tipped ⚡), Harry Newman (39' Tipped ⚡), Harry Newman (50' Tipped ⚡), Kallum Watkins (52' 1st), Tom Holroyd (64'), Mikolaj Oledzki (72') · Leigh Leopards: Isaac Liu (10'), Keanan Brand (22'), Gareth O'Brien (43'), Keanan Brand (62'), Keanan Brand (68'), Umyla Hanley (75')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | 68% | Won |
| Leigh Leopards | 32% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.5 predicted → 18 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Leeds Rhinos vs Leigh Leopards Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 16 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:14 pm_

Leeds Rhinos 48–30 Leigh Leopards in Super League Round 16 at AMT Headingley Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Leigh Leopards will look at the ledger and see enough to suggest they were competitive. Fewer errors than Leeds Rhinos, 9 to 13. More tackle busts, 50 to 42. A tighter discipline count too, giving away just 2 penalties to Leeds' 3. On paper, that's a side doing plenty right.

It still added up to a 48-30 loss at AMT Headingley Stadium, and the timeline tells you why. Leigh kept finding tries all night, Isaac Liu in the tenth minute, Gareth O'Brien twice either side of the break, and Keanan Brand crossing three times through the second half. But every answer came with Leeds already out the door. By the time Brand scored his third in the 68th minute it was 42-24, not a rescue job, just arithmetic.

The backs rating going in had Leigh well clear, 1152 to 734, and Brand's hat-trick is the proof that showed up. Trouble is, rugby league isn't won on one edge alone. Leeds held the forwards and hooker ratings, 771 to 747 and 962 to 915, and it played out in the collision stats that matter most: 1,207 run metres to 1,095, and 9 line breaks to 8. Leigh's form coming in had them conceding an average of 23.6 points a game across their last five. They shipped 48 here, which isn't a form line reversing itself, it's a form line confirming.

Leeds, by contrast, arrived with the form to match the performance. Four wins from five, an average margin of plus 7.8, and they backed it up with a start that had them 24-10 up at the break after tries from Kallum Watkins, Lachlan Miller, Cameron Smith and Harry Newman all landed inside the first 39 minutes. Watkins opened the scoring in the 4th minute and finished with two of his own, Newman added a second in the second half, and Tom Holroyd and Mikolaj Oledzki rounded out the scoring column late. Seven different try scorers for the home side, which is the kind of spread that doesn't leave a defence anywhere to hide.

Jake Connor had a tidy night with the boot too, six from six conversions, the sort of accuracy that turns a comfortable lead into a blowout scoreline.

Leigh's problem wasn't effort, it was containment. They moved the ball well enough and busted plenty of tackles doing it, but 13 Leeds line breaks worth of pressure and 12 offloads to their 8 meant Leeds kept finding second-phase width that Leigh's forward pack, rated behind Leeds' at 747 to 771, couldn't shut down often enough.

Alphr's model backed Leeds Rhinos at 68% and got the winner right. The margin read was another story: picked at 2.5 points, it landed at 18. The total was called at 40, the game produced 78. A 3 from 15 stat return on this one, which is a fair reminder that picking the right team and picking the right story are two different jobs.

**Key Match Stats**

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| **1,207** | Run metres | 1,095 |
| **9** | Line breaks | 8 |
| 42 | Tackle busts | **50** |
| **12** | Offloads | 8 |
| 13 | Errors | **9** |
| 3 | Penalties conceded | **2** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Tries | 6 |
| 8/8 | Goals | 3/6 |
| 3 | Penalties Conceded | 2 |
| 13 | Errors | 9 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leeds Rhinos to win at 68% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.5 but the actual margin was 18 points. The game's 78 points came in 38 points higher than the predicted 40. The model went 3/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (16/100) — penalties Leeds Rhinos 3 · Leigh Leopards 2.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leeds Rhinos to win — model probability 68.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Leeds Rhinos — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Leeds Rhinos 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Leeds Rhinos by 3 · Predicted total: 40

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Leeds Rhinos here: 68% to see off Leigh Leopards. Form leans Leeds Rhinos' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Leigh Leopards.

Leeds Rhinos own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Leeds Rhinos by 2.5, with the two sides combining for about 40. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Leeds Rhinos to win, not to win big.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 21.8pts | Avg Score | 23.6pts |
| 14.0pts | Avg Conceded | 23.6pts |
| 7.8pts | Avg Margin | 0.0pts |
| 1426.8m | Run Metres | 1157.2m |
| 5.0 | Clean Breaks | 6.2 |
| 306.6 | Tackles | 286.4 |
| 10.8 | Errors | 8.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | R11 W · R12 W · R13 W · R14 W · R15 L | 21.8 |
| Leigh Leopards | R11 L · R12 L · R13 W · R14 W · R15 W | 23.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Leeds Rhinos lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R23 | Leeds Rhinos | 16 – 20 | Leigh Leopards | Leeds Rhinos 64% ✗ |
| 2026 | R1 | Leigh Leopards | 26 – 14 | Leeds Rhinos | Leigh Leopards 75% ✓ |
| 2025 | R21 | Leigh Leopards | 14 – 22 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Leigh Leopards | 16 – 22 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |
| 2024 | R15 | Leeds Rhinos | 18 – 10 | Leigh Leopards | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Leeds Rhinos' best path is the right edge: Super League's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.4 tries/game) runs at a Leigh Leopards defence ranked 6th there (0.73 conceded/game). Key man: Lumb, 10 tries in that channel this season.
- Leigh Leopards' best path is the left edge: Super League's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1.2 tries/game) runs at a Leeds Rhinos defence ranked 3rd there (0.67 conceded/game). Key man: Hanley, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Leeds Rhinos | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.73/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.67/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.2/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.73/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.27/g (att 7th) · concedes 0.87/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.4/g (att 5th) · concedes 1.27/g (def 6th) |
| Right | 1.4/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.4/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.73/g (def 6th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 5th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 4 | 7 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 2.4/g |
| Run Metres | 125m/g | 147m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.9/g | 4.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94.1% | 85.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th | 7th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 5th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 29 · 20 | 28 · 21 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 571m/g | 569m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 18.1/g | 18.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.4/g | 2.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.3% | 83.9% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 3 | 16 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 322m/g | 375m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.8/g | 6.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.3% | 94.4% |

**Who scores on Leigh Leopards** — Halfbacks 0.18/g (lg 0.15) +20% · Five-Eighths 0.19/g (lg 0.18) +6% · Props 0.13/g (lg 0.13) +0%
**Who scores on Leeds Rhinos** — Locks 0.06/g (lg 0.04) +50% · Hookers 0.1/g (lg 0.09) +11% · Fullbacks 0.19/g (lg 0.19) +0%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at AMT Headingley Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Leeds Rhinos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lachlan Miller | FB | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 4/19g | 27% | — | 🏉 14' |
| 2 | Alfie Edgell | WG | 0 in 6g | 5/10g (0·4·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 4/16g | 11% | — | — |
| 3 | Harry Newman | CE | 5 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 7/19g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.24 AI 33% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $26.01 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 39' 50' |
| 4 | Ash Handley | CE | 4 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 10/16g | 34% | — | — |
| 5 | Ryan Hall | WG | 6 in 13g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 10/11g | 4/9g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.41 AI 31% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $27.22 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Jake Connor | 5/8 | 4 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 4/6g | 4/9g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.23 AI 23% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Brodie Croft | HB | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/5g | 7/18g | 18% | — | — |
| 8 | Mikolaj Oledzki | PR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/17g | 0% | — | 🏉 72' |
| 9 | Jarrod O'Connor | HK | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/20g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Cooper Jenkins | PR | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Kallum Watkins | 2R | 3 in 12g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 1/6g | 18% | — | 🏉 4' 52' |
| 12 | James Mcdonnell | 2R | 6 in 15g | 6/10g (1·4·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 3/20g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.20 AI 24% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Keenan Palasia | LK | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/8g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Cam Smith | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 31' |
| 15 | Sam Lisone | INT | 3 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/18g | 12% | — | — |
| 16 | Tom Holroyd | INT | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/5g | 2/11g | 16% | — | 🏉 64' |
| 17 | Jack Sinfield | INT | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/7g | 16% | — | — |

**Leigh Leopards** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Armstrong | FB | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·0·1·2·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.65 AI 41% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $21.86 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Darnell Mcintosh | WG | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 6/13g | 0/1g | 24% | — | — |
| 3 | Tesi Niu | CE | 4 in 13g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| 4 | Umyla Hanley | CE | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (0·3·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 26% | — | 🏉 75' |
| 5 | Keanan Brand | WG | 4 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 17% | — | 🏉 22' 62' 68' |
| 6 | Gareth O'Brien | 5/8 | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 0/0g | 8% | — | 🏉 43' |
| 7 | Lachlan Lam | HB | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 8 | Joe Ofahengaue | PR | 3 in 6g | 3/6g (0·1·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.22 AI 33% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $25.92 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 9 | Edwin Ipape | HK | 4 in 14g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/3g | 1/1g | 32% | — | — |
| 10 | Robbie Mulhern | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Owen Trout | 2R | 3 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 12 | Frankie Halton | 2R | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Isaac Liu | LK | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | 🏉 10' |
| 14 | Jack Hughes | INT | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Ethan O'Neill | INT | 5 in 12g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.30 AI 32% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $26.41 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 16 | Matt Davis | INT | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Ben McNamara | INT | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Leeds Rhinos 1602 · Leigh Leopards 1584 · ELO difference: 17 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Leeds Rhinos |

**Model Confidence: 68%** — Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 40 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:14 UTC (latest tip update)