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Super League | Round 16

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AMT HEADINGLEY STADIUM • FRIDAY 27 JUNE, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
LEE

Leeds Rhinos

4830
LEI

Leigh Leopards

✅ Model correct — backed Leeds Rhinos at 68%

AI Win Probability

68%Leeds RhinosFavourite

Leeds Rhinos

68%

Leigh Leopards

32%

AI Match Overview

Leeds Rhinos are clear favourites here at 68%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Leigh Leopards. The model sees Leeds Rhinos ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. Recent form favours Leeds Rhinos with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Leigh Leopards. The margin model predicts Leeds Rhinos by 2.5 points with a combined total of 40.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Leeds Rhinos to Win @1.44

Winner ✓

Edge

-1.2%

Line / Spread

Leeds Rhinos +2.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Leeds Rhinos 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Leeds Rhinos
R11W
R12W
R13W
R14W
R15L

older → newer

21.8
Leigh Leopards
R11L
R12L
R13W
R14W
R15W
23.6

Avg Conceded

14.0

Leeds Rhinos

23.6

Leigh Leopards

Avg Margin

7.8

Leeds Rhinos

0.0

Leigh Leopards

Run Metres

1427

Leeds Rhinos

1157

Leigh Leopards

Clean Breaks

5.0

Leeds Rhinos

6.2

Leigh Leopards

H2H History (Last 5)Leeds Rhinos lead 3-2
Mar 2026LEE 14 - 26 LEI
Aug 2025LEE 22 - 14 LEI
Feb 2024LEE 22 - 16 LEI
Jun 2024LEE 18 - 10 LEI
Aug 2023LEE 6 - 13 LEI
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

LEE
1602Overall1584
LEI
ELO difference: +17 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

771Forwards747
Best: 955LEE +23Best: 971
734Backs1152
Best: 824LEI +418Best: 1312
751Halves771
Best: 751LEI +21Best: 771
962Hooker915
LEE +47

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

LEE
Stat
LEI
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
21.8pts
Avg Score
23.6pts
14.0pts
Avg Conceded
23.6pts
7.8pts
Avg Margin
0.0pts
1426.8m
Run Metres
1157.2m
5.0
Clean Breaks
6.2
306.6
Tackles
286.4
10.8
Errors
8.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Rhinos
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Rhinos
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Leopards
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Rhinos
5
Halves Control9.0%
Leopards
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Rhinos
7
H2H History6.0%
Rhinos

Model Confidence

68%

Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 3 points

Predicted total: 40 · Line: +2.5

2/4 match predictions correct