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Super League | Round 16

alphr.com.au

SEWELL GROUP CRAVEN PARK • FRIDAY 27 JUNE, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
HKR

Hull KR

3410
WAK

Wakefield Trinity

✅ Model correct — backed Hull KR at 76%

AI Win Probability

76%Hull KRFavourite

Hull KR

76%

Wakefield Trinity

24%

AI Match Overview

Hull KR are clear favourites here at 76%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Wakefield Trinity. The model sees Hull KR ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Hull KR carry a 267-point ELO rating advantage (1813 vs 1546). Recent form favours Hull KR with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Wakefield Trinity. The margin model predicts Hull KR by 12.0 points with a combined total of 45.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Hull KR to Win @1.11

Winner ✓

Edge

-14.3%

Line / Spread

Hull KR +12 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Hull KR 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Hull KR
R11W
R12W
R13W
R14W
R15W

older → newer

43.0
Wakefield Trinity
R11W
R12W
R13L
R14L
R15W
33.2

Avg Conceded

4.4

Hull KR

15.2

Wakefield Trinity

Avg Margin

38.6

Hull KR

18.0

Wakefield Trinity

Run Metres

1388

Hull KR

1138

Wakefield Trinity

Clean Breaks

11.0

Hull KR

5.4

Wakefield Trinity

H2H History (Last 5)Hull KR lead 4-1
Sep 2025HKR 12 - 28 WAK
Mar 2025HKR 14 - 12 WAK
Sep 2023HKR 56 - 12 WAK
Jun 2023HKR 28 - 12 WAK
Apr 2023HKR 34 - 6 WAK
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

HKR
1813Overall1546
WAK
ELO difference: +267 in favour of Hull KR

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

873Forwards861
Best: 1138HKR +12Best: 1150
1213Backs910
Best: 1475HKR +302Best: 1067
1091Halves613
Best: 1091HKR +478Best: 613
786Hooker720
HKR +66

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HKR
Stat
WAK
5.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
43.0pts
Avg Score
33.2pts
4.4pts
Avg Conceded
15.2pts
38.6pts
Avg Margin
18.0pts
1388.2m
Run Metres
1138.0m
11.0
Clean Breaks
5.4
283.4
Tackles
248.2
9.2
Errors
7.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
KR
2
Forward Pack12.0%
KR
3
Backline Quality10.0%
KR
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
KR
5
Halves Control9.0%
KR
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
KR
7
H2H History6.0%
KR

Model Confidence

76%

Hull KR predicted to win by 12 points

Predicted total: 45 · Line: +12.0

3/4 match predictions correct