# Hull KR v Wakefield Trinity — Super League Round 16 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hull KR 34 – 10 Wakefield Trinity

_Hull KR outfox Wakefield Trinity._

Half time: 12 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hull KR 76% / Wakefield Trinity 24% · Sewell Group Craven Park · Fri, 27 June, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Hull KR: Tom Davies (19' 1st Tipped 🎯), Joe Burgess (33' Tipped ⚡), Mikey Lewis (44' Tipped ⚡), Tom Davies (48' 1st Tipped 🎯), Tom Davies (61' 1st Tipped 🎯), Peta Hiku (67' Tipped ⚡) · Wakefield Trinity: Tom Johnstone (22'), Corey Hall (29')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | 76% | Won |
| Wakefield Trinity | 24% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 12.0 predicted → 24 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hull KR vs Wakefield Trinity Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 16 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:14 pm_

Hull KR 34–10 Wakefield Trinity in Super League Round 16 at Sewell Group Craven Park. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Wakefield Trinity were level at 6-6 and then in front, 10-6, with half an hour gone. Then Joe Burgess scored in the 33rd minute, Arthur Mourgue landed the conversion, and Hull KR never trailed again.

Final score: Hull KR 34, Wakefield Trinity 10. At the break it was 12-10, one score in it, Wakefield still very much in the contest. What followed was a different match entirely. Tom Davies crossed twice more after half-time, in the 48th and 61st minutes, either side of a Mikey Lewis try in the 44th, and Peta Hiku added a fifth for Hull KR in the 67th to put the gloss on it.

Davies finished with a hat-trick, and it was his opening try in the 19th minute that got Hull KR moving in the first place. Wakefield hit back through Tom Johnstone and Corey Hall to actually lead 10-6, which on the raw scoreline looks like a game that could have gone either way. It didn't, and the stats explain why.

Run metres tell most of the story: 1,338 to 859. Hull KR broke the line nine times to Wakefield's two, and busted 50 tackles to 35. That's not a team nicking a win, that's a team going through Wakefield at will once it found its groove. The 12-strength gap in the forwards on paper (873 to 861) was minor, but the gulf out the back was not: Hull KR's backs rated 1213 to Wakefield's 910, and their halves 1091 to 613. On this evidence, that halves gap is where the second-half points came from.

Wakefield actually won the discipline and ball-control battle, conceding just 7 errors to Hull KR's 13 and giving away fewer penalties, 5 to 3. Handy stats to have, not much use when you're being run over 1,338 metres to 859. Cleaner footy without the go-forward to back it up only gets you so far, and 10 points was about the ceiling.

Form lines pointed this way before kick-off. Hull KR arrived on five straight wins, averaging 43 points a game and conceding just 4.4. Wakefield had won three of their last five but were leaking 15.2 points a game on average, and that defensive gap showed up again here once Hull KR's backline got room to move.

Alphr's model had Hull KR favourites at 76%, with a projected margin of 12 and a combined total of 45. The gap ended up doubling to 24, but the model's shape was sound: correct winner, total score of 44 against a picked 45, off by a single point. The margin call undersold how one-sided the second half would be, but as a pre-match read it was hard to argue with. Model's sitting at 6 from 15 for the run, so plenty more of these to test it against.

**Key Match Stats**

| Hull KR | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| **1,338** | Run metres | 859 |
| **9** | Line breaks | 2 |
| **50** | Tackle busts | 35 |
| **8** | Offloads | 6 |
| 13 | Errors | **7** |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 5 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Hull KR | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 2 |
| 5/6 | Goals | 1/2 |
| 3 | Penalties Conceded | 5 |
| 13 | Errors | 7 |
| 1 | Sin Bins | 0 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hull KR to win at 76% probability. The predicted margin of 12.0 was reasonable against the actual 24-point result. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 44, within 1 points. Hull KR led 12–10 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 24. The model went 6/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (17/100) — penalties Hull KR 3 · Wakefield Trinity 5.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull KR to win — model probability 75.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hull KR — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hull KR 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hull KR by 12 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Hull KR here: 76% to see off Wakefield Trinity. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hull KR sit 267 ELO points clear, 1813 to 1546. Form leans Hull KR's way: 5 from their last 5, against 3 for Wakefield Trinity.

Hull KR own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Hull KR by 12.0, with the two sides combining for about 45. Hull KR to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Hull KR | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 43.0pts | Avg Score | 33.2pts |
| 4.4pts | Avg Conceded | 15.2pts |
| 38.6pts | Avg Margin | 18.0pts |
| 1388.2m | Run Metres | 1138.0m |
| 11.0 | Clean Breaks | 5.4 |
| 283.4 | Tackles | 248.2 |
| 9.2 | Errors | 7.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | R11 W · R12 W · R13 W · R14 W · R15 W | 43.0 |
| Wakefield Trinity | R11 W · R12 W · R13 L · R14 L · R15 W | 33.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wakefield Trinity lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R18 | Hull KR | 6 – 20 | Wakefield Trinity | Hull KR 55% ✗ |
| 2026 | R13 | Wakefield Trinity | 26 – 24 | Hull KR | Hull KR 79% ✗ |
| 2025 | R26 | Wakefield Trinity | 28 – 12 | Hull KR | not priced |
| 2025 | R2 | Wakefield Trinity | 12 – 14 | Hull KR | not priced |
| 2023 | R27 | Wakefield Trinity | 12 – 56 | Hull KR | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 0 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Hull KR's best path is the right edge: Super League's 1st-ranked right edge attack (1.53 tries/game) runs at a Wakefield Trinity defence ranked 8th there (0.87 conceded/game). Key man: Davies, 10 tries in that channel this season.
- Wakefield Trinity's best path is the middle: Super League's 3rd-ranked middle attack (2.27 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 1st there (0.47 conceded/game). Key man: Jowitt, 9 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Hull KR | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.8/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.4/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.53/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 0.8/g (def 6th) |
| Middle | 2.6/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.47/g (def 1st (strong)) | 2.27/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 5th) |
| Right | 1.53/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.4/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.93/g (att 6th) · concedes 0.87/g (def 8th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Hull KR | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 19 · 2 | 10 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 1.9/g |
| Run Metres | 213m/g | 90m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.3/g | 2.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.7/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.8% | 90.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Hull KR | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 48 · 13 | 22 · 29 |
| Try Assists | 2.3/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 582m/g | 428m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.1/g | 11.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 4.3/g | 1.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.4% | 83.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Hull KR | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 2 | 18 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 303m/g | 348m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.1/g | 6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94.2% | 95.4% |

**Who scores on Wakefield Trinity** — Fullbacks 0.31/g (lg 0.19) +63% · Halfbacks 0.24/g (lg 0.15) +60% · Wingers 1.24/g (lg 0.88) +41%
**Who scores on Hull KR** — 2nd Rows 0.23/g (lg 0.25) -8% · Hookers 0.08/g (lg 0.09) -11% · Wingers 0.75/g (lg 0.88) -15%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Sewell Group Craven Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hull KR** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arthur Mourgue | FB | 6 in 13g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 0/7g | 32% | — | — |
| 2 | Tom Davies | WG | 10 in 13g | 8/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·2·0·1·2) | 9/12g | 4/10g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.92 AI 55% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $16.66 AI 15% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 19' 48' 61' |
| 3 | Peta Hiku | CE | 6 in 14g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/2g | 11/19g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.70 AI 40% ✓ Scored | 🏉 67' |
| 4 | Jack Broadbent | CE | 9 in 14g | 8/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·1·2·1·2) | 1/5g | 9/14g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.81 AI 57% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.88 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Joe Burgess | WG | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (3·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·1·0) | 12/10g | 14/16g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 48% ✓ Scored | 🏉 33' |
| 6 | Mikey Lewis | 5/8 | 14 in 13g | 12/10g (2·3·0·1·0·1·1·2·2·0) | 4/8g | 24/39g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.12 AI 50% ✓ Scored | 🏉 44' |
| 7 | Tyrone May | HB | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 6/20g | 24% | — | — |
| 8 | Sauaso Sue | PR | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/3g | 6/27g | 20% | — | — |
| 9 | Jez Litten | HK | 4 in 15g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 6/44g | 20% | — | — |
| 10 | Dean Hadley | PR | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 1/36g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Jai Whitbread | 2R | 5 in 15g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/2g | 4/21g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Rhyse Martin | 2R | 0 in 3g | 5/10g (1·0·0·3·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 1/4g | 22% | — | — |
| 13 | Elliot Minchella | LK | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/8g | 4/42g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Luckley | INT | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/31g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Kelepi Tanginoa | INT | 4 in 14g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 8/21g | 26% | — | — |
| 16 | Jack Brown | INT | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/16g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Bill Leyland | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |

**Wakefield Trinity** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Jowitt | FB | 9 in 12g | 7/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·1·2·1·0) | 2/8g | 1/3g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.10 AI 34% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $25.05 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Lachlan Walmsley | WG | 5 in 9g | 5/9g (0·0·0·0·2·0·2·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.89 AI 37% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $23.59 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Corey Hall | CE | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 0/7g | 16% | — | 🏉 29' |
| 4 | Oliver Pratt | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 5 | Tom Johnstone | WG | 6 in 15g | 5/10g (2·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 13/15g | 1/2g | 38% | — | 🏉 22' |
| 6 | Jake Trueman | 5/8 | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 7 | Mason Lino | HB | 3 in 15g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Caius Faatili | PR | 7 in 15g | 7/10g (0·0·0·0·2·2·2·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.34 AI 31% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $26.76 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 9 | Harvey Smith | HK | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Jay Pitts | PR | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Seth Nikotemo | 2R | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| 12 | Cameron Scott | 2R | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 24% | — | — |
| 13 | Josh Griffin | LK | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·1) | 3/14g | 0/1g | 22% | — | — |
| 14 | Liam Hood | INT | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| 15 | Josh Rourke | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/1g | 24% | — | — |
| 16 | Isaiah Vagana | INT | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Jack Croft | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Hull KR 1813 · Wakefield Trinity 1546 · ELO difference: 267 in favour of Hull KR

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Hull KR |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Hull KR |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Hull KR |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Hull KR |

**Model Confidence: 76%** — Hull KR predicted to win by 12 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:14 UTC (latest tip update)