# Catalans Dragons v Huddersfield Giants — Super League Round 16 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Catalans Dragons 32 – 0 Huddersfield Giants

_Catalans Dragons scorch Huddersfield Giants._

Half time: 20 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Catalans Dragons 62% / Huddersfield Giants 38% · Stade Gilbert Brutus · Sat, 28 June, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Catalans Dragons: Leo Darrelatour (11' 1st), Luke Keary (18'), Sam Tomkins (39' Tipped ⚡), Clement Martin (58'), Alrix Da Costa (75') · Huddersfield Giants: none

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Catalans Dragons | 62% | Won |
| Huddersfield Giants | 38% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.6 predicted → 32 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Catalans Dragons vs Huddersfield Giants Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 16 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:14 pm_

Catalans Dragons 32–0 Huddersfield Giants in Super League Round 16 at Stade Gilbert Brutus. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Catalans Dragons put 32 points on Huddersfield Giants without reply at Stade Gilbert Brutus, the kind of scoreline that usually means one side controlled everything. Except Huddersfield were actually the tidier side with the ball, just 7 errors to Catalans' 9. A team that concedes 32 tries and points and coughs up the ball fewer times than the winner isn't the shambles the scoreboard suggests. They just couldn't do a thing with the ball they kept.

Because everywhere else, this was one-way traffic. Catalans ran for 1,070 metres to Huddersfield's 680, broke the line four times to nil, and busted 28 tackles to 18. Huddersfield had the ball plenty and looked after it, but they went nowhere with it. That's the story of the day in a sentence: possession without penetration.

The discipline column made it worse. Huddersfield conceded six penalties to Catalans' one, and against a side building field position and confidence, that kind of leak adds up fast. Catalans didn't need much width to punish it either, not when Leo Darrelatour got the roll on inside the opening quarter.

Darrelatour opened the scoring in the 11th minute, and by half-time Catalans led 20-0, with Luke Keary and Sam Tomkins both crossing before the break and Tommy Makinson slotting everything put in front of him. Twenty points inside 39 minutes against a side that had actually held its own on the error count says everything about how one-sided the finishing was. Huddersfield were still in the arm-wrestle territorially. They just weren't scoring.

The second half was Catalans cruising rather than grinding. Clement Martin crossed just after the hour, Alrix Da Costa added a fifth try in the 75th minute, and Makinson didn't miss a conversion all day. From 20-0 at the break to 32-0 at full-time, Catalans added tries at a canter while Huddersfield never troubled the tryline once.

Go back to the positional ratings and this result reads almost backwards. Huddersfield came in rated stronger everywhere that matters, forwards 840 to 771, backs 1098 to 755, halves 1000 to 800. On paper this was a Huddersfield side built to win the collisions and the class battle out wide. None of it showed up. Catalans' shape and finishing simply overrode the form line, and the form line was ugly for them too: five straight losses coming in, an average margin of minus 39.6 points a game. Huddersfield arrived with a win in their last five and better underlying numbers across the board, run metres, clean breaks, tackles completed, the lot.

Alphr's model had Catalans as 62% favourites, rating them 1359 to Huddersfield's 1281, and got the winner right. The margin was another matter. A predicted 5.6-point win turned into a 32-point rout, and the projected total of 49 combined points landed 17 points light with Huddersfield never troubling the scoreboard. Model went 2 from 15 on the card this round.

For Catalans, it's a much-needed statement after a form line that had nothing good in it. For Huddersfield, the concerning bit isn't the ball-handling, which was fine. It's that fine ball-handling and a stronger roster on paper still produced nothing but zeroes on the board.

**Key Match Stats**

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| **1,070** | Run metres | 680 |
| **4** | Line breaks | 0 |
| **28** | Tackle busts | 18 |
| **13** | Offloads | 9 |
| 9 | Errors | **7** |
| **1** | Penalties conceded | 6 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 0 |
| 6/6 | Goals | 0/0 |
| 1 | Penalties Conceded | 6 |
| 9 | Errors | 7 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Catalans Dragons to win at 62% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.6 but the actual margin was 32 points. The game's 32 points came in 17 points lower than the predicted 49. Catalans Dragons led 20–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 32. The model went 2/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (42/100) — penalties Catalans Dragons 1 · Huddersfield Giants 6.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Catalans Dragons to win — model probability 62.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Catalans Dragons — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Catalans Dragons 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Catalans Dragons by 6 · Predicted total: 49

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Catalans Dragons are the call at 62%, but Huddersfield Giants stay live at 38%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Catalans Dragons sit 78 ELO points clear, 1359 to 1281. Form leans Huddersfield Giants' way: 1 from their last 5, against 0 for Catalans Dragons.

On paper Huddersfield Giants shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The model still sides with Catalans Dragons, which says ELO Difference and Venue Advantage carry the most weight. The margin model has Catalans Dragons by 5.6, with the two sides combining for about 49. Lean Catalans Dragons, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 3.6pts | Avg Score | 14.0pts |
| 43.2pts | Avg Conceded | 29.2pts |
| -39.6pts | Avg Margin | -15.2pts |
| 593.4m | Run Metres | 992.8m |
| 0.6 | Clean Breaks | 1.8 |
| 220.6 | Tackles | 290.4 |
| 6.4 | Errors | 8.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Catalans Dragons | R11 L · R12 L · R13 L · R14 L · R15 L | 3.6 |
| Huddersfield Giants | R11 L · R12 L · R13 L · R14 L · R15 W | 14.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Catalans Dragons lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R22 | Huddersfield Giants | 42 – 20 | Catalans Dragons | Catalans Dragons 53% ✗ |
| 2026 | R1 | Catalans Dragons | 26 – 10 | Huddersfield Giants | Catalans Dragons 60% ✓ |
| 2025 | R21 | Huddersfield Giants | 18 – 6 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |
| 2025 | R7 | Huddersfield Giants | 18 – 38 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |
| 2024 | R21 | Huddersfield Giants | 22 – 23 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Catalans Dragons' best path is the middle: Super League's 10th-ranked middle attack (0.6 tries/game) runs at a Huddersfield Giants defence ranked 11th there (2.4 conceded/game). Key man: Satae, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Huddersfield Giants' best path is the middle: Super League's 8th-ranked middle attack (0.87 tries/game) runs at a Catalans Dragons defence ranked 10th there (2.07 conceded/game). Key man: Flanagan, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Catalans Dragons | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.27/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.33/g (def 10th (weak)) | 0.33/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 1.4/g (def 11th (weak)) |
| Middle | 0.6/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 2.07/g (def 10th (weak)) | 0.87/g (att 8th) · concedes 2.4/g (def 11th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.4/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 0.8/g (def 6th) | 0.53/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 0.87/g (def 8th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 10th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 18 | 3 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 21m/g | 86m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 0.7/g | 3.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.1/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.4% | 89.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 10th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 10th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 24 | 13 · 36 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 366m/g | 344m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 12.5/g | 9.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.3/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.8% | 79.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 11th (weak) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 16 | 5 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0/g |
| Run Metres | 172m/g | 174m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.7/g | 5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.2/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.2% | 93% |

**Who scores on Huddersfield Giants** — Five-Eighths 0.25/g (lg 0.18) +39% · Wingers 1.22/g (lg 0.88) +39% · Halfbacks 0.19/g (lg 0.15) +27%
**Who scores on Catalans Dragons** — Locks 0.06/g (lg 0.04) +50% · Props 0.17/g (lg 0.13) +31% · Five-Eighths 0.23/g (lg 0.18) +28%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Stade Gilbert Brutus. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Catalans Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sam Tomkins | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.25 AI 32% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $26.10 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 39' |
| 2 | Tommy Makinson | WG | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·3·0·0·0·1) | 9/8g | 6/11g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 58% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.46 AI 25% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Clement Martin | CE | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | 🏉 58' |
| 4 | Leo Darrelatour | CE | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/2g | 25% | — | 🏉 11' |
| 5 | Nick Cotric | WG | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/6g | 9% | — | — |
| 6 | Luke Keary | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 18' |
| 7 | Cesar Rouge | HB | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/20g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Romain Navarrete | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/32g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Alrix Da Costa | HK | 2 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 2/38g | 8% | — | 🏉 75' |
| 10 | Franck Maria | PR | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Paul Seguier | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Bayley Sironen | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Oliver Partington | LK | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/12g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Julian Bousquet | INT | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 7/47g | 16% | — | — |
| 15 | Jordan Dezaria | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/36g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Tevita Pangai Junior | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Denive Balmforth | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 13% | — | — |

**Huddersfield Giants** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | George Flanagan | FB | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.69 AI 40% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $22.16 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Jacob Gagai | WG | 6 in 13g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·2) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 39% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.07 AI 51% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.79 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Taane Milne | CE | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 4 | Sam Halsall | CE | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/6g | 0/2g | 30% | — | — |
| 5 | Jake Bibby | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.05 AI 52% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.63 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Matt Frawley | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.12 AI 34% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Tui Lolohea | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.43 AI 30% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Tristan Powell | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Zac Woolford | HK | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | George King | PR | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/18g | 0/7g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Harry Rushton | 2R | 0 in 8g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 12 | Joe Greenwood | 2R | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/12g | 0/4g | 6% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.28 AI 32% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Leroy Cudjoe | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Ashton Golding | INT | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 1/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Matty English | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/4g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Tom Burgess | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Kieran Rush | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Catalans Dragons 1359 · Huddersfield Giants 1281 · ELO difference: 78 in favour of Catalans Dragons

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Huddersfield Giants |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Huddersfield Giants |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Huddersfield Giants |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Huddersfield Giants |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 62%** — Catalans Dragons predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 49 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:14 UTC (latest tip update)