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Super League | Round 16

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STADE GILBERT BRUTUS • SATURDAY 28 JUNE, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
CAT

Catalans Dragons

320
HUD

Huddersfield Giants

✅ Model correct — backed Catalans Dragons at 62%

AI Win Probability

62%Catalans DragonsFavourite

Catalans Dragons

62%

Huddersfield Giants

38%

AI Match Overview

Catalans Dragons hold the advantage at 62% win probability, though Huddersfield Giants are far from out of this at 38%. Huddersfield Giants are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate, but Catalans Dragons counter with ELO Difference and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Catalans Dragons carry a 78-point ELO rating advantage (1359 vs 1281). Recent form favours Huddersfield Giants with 1 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Catalans Dragons. The margin model predicts Catalans Dragons by 5.6 points with a combined total of 49.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Catalans Dragons to Win @1.71

Winner ✓

Edge

+3.6%

Line / Spread

Catalans Dragons +5.6 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Catalans Dragons 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Catalans Dragons
R11L
R12L
R13L
R14L
R15L

older → newer

3.6
Huddersfield Giants
R11L
R12L
R13L
R14L
R15W
14.0

Avg Conceded

43.2

Catalans Dragons

29.2

Huddersfield Giants

Avg Margin

-39.6

Catalans Dragons

-15.2

Huddersfield Giants

Run Metres

593

Catalans Dragons

993

Huddersfield Giants

Clean Breaks

0.6

Catalans Dragons

1.8

Huddersfield Giants

H2H History (Last 5)Catalans Dragons lead 4-1
Mar 2026CAT 26 - 10 HUD
Aug 2025CAT 6 - 18 HUD
Apr 2025CAT 38 - 18 HUD
Aug 2024CAT 23 - 22 HUD
Jun 2024CAT 22 - 18 HUD
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

CAT
1359Overall1281
HUD
ELO difference: +78 in favour of Catalans Dragons

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

771Forwards840
Best: 1000HUD +69Best: 1055
755Backs1098
Best: 858HUD +343Best: 1324
800Halves1000
Best: 800HUD +200Best: 1000
1169Hooker1239
HUD +70

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

CAT
Stat
HUD
0.0
Wins (Last 5)
1.0
3.6pts
Avg Score
14.0pts
43.2pts
Avg Conceded
29.2pts
-39.6pts
Avg Margin
-15.2pts
593.4m
Run Metres
992.8m
0.6
Clean Breaks
1.8
220.6
Tackles
290.4
6.4
Errors
8.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Dragons
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Giants
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Giants
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Giants
5
Halves Control9.0%
Giants
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Dragons
7
H2H History6.0%

Model Confidence

62%

Catalans Dragons predicted to win by 6 points

Predicted total: 49 · Line: +5.6

2/4 match predictions correct