Castleford Tigers
Wigan Warriors
AI Win Probability
Castleford Tigers
26%
Wigan Warriors
74%
AI Match Overview
Wigan Warriors are clear favourites here at 74%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Castleford Tigers. The model sees Wigan Warriors ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. Wigan Warriors carry a 451-point ELO rating advantage (1777 vs 1326). Recent form favours Wigan Warriors with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Castleford Tigers. The margin model predicts Wigan Warriors by 10.3 points with a combined total of 41.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Wigan Warriors to Win @1.09
Winner ✓
Edge
-17.4%
Line / Spread
Wigan Warriors -10.3 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Wigan Warriors 1-12 @3.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 40.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Castleford Tigers | R11W R12L R13L R14W R15L older → newer | 20.0 |
Wigan Warriors | R11W R12W R13W R14W R15L | 32.4 |
Avg Conceded
28.2
Castleford Tigers
13.6
Wigan Warriors
Avg Margin
-8.2
Castleford Tigers
18.8
Wigan Warriors
Run Metres
981
Castleford Tigers
1281
Wigan Warriors
Clean Breaks
3.8
Castleford Tigers
6.8
Wigan Warriors
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
74%
Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 10 points
Predicted total: 41 · Line: -10.3