# Castleford Tigers v Wigan Warriors — Super League Round 16 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Castleford Tigers 20 – 26 Wigan Warriors

_Wigan Warriors survive a scare against Castleford Tigers._

Half time: 4 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Castleford Tigers 26% / Wigan Warriors 74% · The Jungle · Sat, 28 June, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Castleford Tigers: Will Tate (14' 1st), Daejarn Asi (41'), Sam Wood (47'), Will Tate (72' 1st) · Wigan Warriors: Jai Field (17' Tipped ⚡), Adam Keighran (39' Tipped ⚡), Zach Eckersley (66' Tipped ⚡), Liam Farrell (76')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | 74% | Won |
| Castleford Tigers | 26% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 10.3 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Castleford Tigers vs Wigan Warriors Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 16 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:14 pm_

Castleford Tigers 20–26 Wigan Warriors in Super League Round 16 at The Jungle. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twelve minutes decided this one, and Castleford Tigers were the team left staring at the wreckage. Wigan Warriors trailed 20-18 with the clock past 70, then scored three times in the space of ten minutes to turn a losing position into a 26-20 win. That's the story of the whole night in miniature: whenever the door looked shut, Wigan found a way to prise it back open.

Go back further and the arm-wrestle had already flipped once. Wigan led 12-4 at the break, built on tries to Jai Field and Adam Keighran either side of the 17th and 39th minutes. Castleford came out swinging after half-time, with Daejarn Asi, Sam Wood and a second Will Tate try turning 4-12 into 20-18 by the 72nd minute. For about twenty minutes, Castleford looked like the team controlling the contest. Then Keighran slotted a penalty goal to level it at 20-20, and Liam Farrell crossed four minutes from time to settle it. Keighran's conversion made it 26-20 and that was that.

Will Tate finished with two tries, including the opener and the eventual go-ahead score that Castleford couldn't hold. Adam Keighran was the man for Wigan, a try of his own plus three from the tee and the match-levelling penalty goal, eight points from the boot alone when it mattered most.

The stat sheet backs up what the scoreboard suggests: Wigan were the more dangerous side with ball in hand. They ran for 1,338 metres to Castleford's 986, broke the line five times to four, and racked up 34 tackle busts against 23. The offload count tells the real story though: Wigan offloaded 12 times to Castleford's four, and that kind of second-phase play is exactly what wears a defence down over 80 minutes.

Castleford's consolation is that they were the tidier side, just nine errors to Wigan's 11, and gave away fewer penalties too, four to five. Discipline and ball security weren't the problem. Field position and go-forward were, and against a Wigan forward pack that came in rated behind Castleford's on paper, 892 to 846, it was still the visitors doing the damage with ball in hand.

Form lines suggested this was coming. Wigan arrived on the back of four wins from five, averaging 32.4 points a game and conceding just 13.6. Castleford had won two of their last five and were shipping 28.2 points on average, a defence that had leaked all season and did so again in patches here.

Alphr's model had Wigan favourites at 74%, with a projected margin of 10.3 and a combined total of 41. The actual margin was six, the total 46, both close enough to call the model's read a sound one. It landed the win, landed the margin band, and wasn't far off the total either. Not a bad night's work, even if Castleford made it a lot closer than the ratings gap suggested they should.

**Key Match Stats**

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 986 | Run metres | **1,338** |
| 4 | Line breaks | **5** |
| 23 | Tackle busts | **34** |
| 4 | Offloads | **12** |
| **9** | Errors | 11 |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 5 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 4 |
| 2/4 | Goals | 5/5 |
| 4 | Penalties Conceded | 5 |
| 9 | Errors | 11 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wigan Warriors to win at 74% probability. The predicted margin of 10.3 was reasonable against the actual 6-point result. Total score prediction of 41 was close to the actual 46, within 5 points. The model went 5/15 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (29/100) — penalties Castleford Tigers 4 · Wigan Warriors 5.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wigan Warriors to win — model probability 74.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wigan Warriors — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Wigan Warriors 1-12 — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Wigan Warriors by 10 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Wigan Warriors here: 74% to see off Castleford Tigers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wigan Warriors sit 451 ELO points clear, 1777 to 1326. Form leans Wigan Warriors' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Castleford Tigers.

Wigan Warriors own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage. The margin model has Wigan Warriors by 10.3, with the two sides combining for about 41. Wigan Warriors to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 20.0pts | Avg Score | 32.4pts |
| 28.2pts | Avg Conceded | 13.6pts |
| -8.2pts | Avg Margin | 18.8pts |
| 980.8m | Run Metres | 1280.6m |
| 3.8 | Clean Breaks | 6.8 |
| 287.0 | Tackles | 302.0 |
| 8.0 | Errors | 11.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Castleford Tigers | R11 W · R12 L · R13 L · R14 W · R15 L | 20.0 |
| Wigan Warriors | R11 W · R12 W · R13 W · R14 W · R15 L | 32.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wigan Warriors lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R8 | Wigan Warriors | 14 – 24 | Castleford Tigers | Wigan Warriors 79% ✗ |
| 2026 | R1 | Castleford Tigers | 16 – 26 | Wigan Warriors | Wigan Warriors 68% ✓ |
| 2025 | R26 | Wigan Warriors | 62 – 6 | Castleford Tigers | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Wigan Warriors | 36 – 14 | Castleford Tigers | not priced |
| 2024 | R14 | Castleford Tigers | 8 – 10 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Castleford Tigers' best path is the left edge: Super League's 7th-ranked left edge attack (1.07 tries/game) runs at a Wigan Warriors defence ranked 3rd there (0.73 conceded/game). Key man: Senior, 7 tries in that channel this season.
- Wigan Warriors' best path is the middle: Super League's 1st-ranked middle attack (2.8 tries/game) runs at a Castleford Tigers defence ranked 8th there (1.6 conceded/game). Key man: Field, 17 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Castleford Tigers | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.07/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.27/g (def 9th (weak)) | 1.53/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.73/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 0.87/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.6/g (def 8th) | 2.8/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.67/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Right | 0.33/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.4/g (def 11th (weak)) | 1.33/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.53/g (def 3rd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 5 | 15 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 2.1/g |
| Run Metres | 96m/g | 149m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.6/g | 5.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.2/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.1% | 89.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 19 · 43 | 54 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 2.3/g |
| Run Metres | 373m/g | 527m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.2/g | 15.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.7/g | 4.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.5% | 83.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 10 | 9 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 231m/g | 372m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.1/g | 10.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.9% | 93.7% |

**Who scores on Wigan Warriors** — Locks 0.04/g (lg 0.04) +0% · 2nd Rows 0.21/g (lg 0.25) -16% · Props 0.08/g (lg 0.13) -38%
**Who scores on Castleford Tigers** — Locks 0.12/g (lg 0.04) +200% · Fullbacks 0.32/g (lg 0.19) +68% · Props 0.2/g (lg 0.13) +54%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Jungle. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Castleford Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zac Cini | FB | 4 in 15g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/8g | 24% | — | — |
| 2 | Josh Simm | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Louis Senior | CE | 2 in 5g | 7/10g (0·1·1·2·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 5/8g | 1/3g | 50% | — | — |
| 4 | Sam Wood | CE | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/7g | 18% | — | 🏉 47' |
| 5 | Will Tate | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 14' 72' |
| 6 | Daejarn Asi | 5/8 | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/8g | 16% | — | 🏉 41' |
| 7 | Chris Atkin | HB | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/15g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 8 | Brad Singleton | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 0/5g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Liam Horne | HK | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/8g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Taealoaloa Amone | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | George Lawler | 2R | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/8g | 4% | — | — |
| 12 | Alex Mellor | 2R | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 1/8g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Westerman | LK | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/15g | 0/6g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | George Griffin | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Hall | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | George Hill | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Joe Stimson | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Wigan Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Field | FB | 17 in 14g | 12/10g (2·1·2·1·1·0·1·2·1·1) | 3/5g | 0/0g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.05 AI 77% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.47 AI 24% ✗ Not first | 🏉 17' |
| 2 | Jacob Douglas | WG | 3 in 4g | 4/8g (0·0·0·1·0·0·3·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.88 AI 55% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $16.40 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Zach Eckersley | CE | 5 in 15g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.51 AI 43% ✓ Scored | 🏉 66' |
| 4 | Adam Keighran | CE | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·1) | 2/4g | 0/0g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.04 AI 52% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $17.58 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 39' |
| 5 | Jake Wardle | WG | 9 in 14g | 6/10g (0·3·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.55 AI 42% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Harry Smith | 5/8 | 3 in 15g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 7 | Jack Farrimond | HB | 3 in 7g | 3/7g (0·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.51 AI 43% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Liam Byrne | PR | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Brad O'Neill | HK | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Luke Thompson | PR | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Junior Nsemba | 2R | 5 in 15g | 5/10g (1·0·0·2·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.06 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Liam Farrell | 2R | 2 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/15g | 0/0g | 8% | — | 🏉 76' |
| 13 | Kaide Ellis | LK | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Joseph Havard | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Patrick Mago | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Kruise Leeming | INT | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 4/15g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 17 | Tyler Dupree | INT | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Castleford Tigers 1326 · Wigan Warriors 1777 · ELO difference: 451 in favour of Wigan Warriors

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | — |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Wigan Warriors |

**Model Confidence: 74%** — Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 2/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:14 UTC (latest tip update)