# Wakefield Trinity v Wigan Warriors — Super League Round 15 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wakefield Trinity 16 – 10 Wigan Warriors

_Wakefield Trinity edge Wigan Warriors in a tight one._

Half time: 10 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wakefield Trinity 33% / Wigan Warriors 67% · The Diy Kitchens Stadium · Fri, 20 June, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wakefield Trinity: Caius Faatili (17' 1st Tipped 🎯), Josh Griffin (35' Tipped ⚡), Tom Johnstone (53') · Wigan Warriors: Adam Keighran (43'), Jai Field (79' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | 67% | Lost |
| Wakefield Trinity | 33% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 7.5 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wakefield Trinity vs Wigan Warriors Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 15 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:14 pm_

Wakefield Trinity 16–10 Wigan Warriors in Super League Round 15 at The Diy Kitchens Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Wakefield Trinity did their damage in the eighteen minutes either side of half-time and then spent the rest of the night defending it. Caius Faatili got them moving in the 17th minute, Josh Griffin added a second in the 35th, Max Jowitt's conversion made it 10-0 at the break, and that burst turned out to be the whole game. Wigan Warriors never got the margin below four points again.

Final score: Wakefield Trinity 16, Wigan Warriors 10. Adam Keighran pulled one back just after half-time and converted his own try to make it 10-6, but Tom Johnstone restored the buffer with a try in the 53rd minute, Jowitt kicked the extras, and from 16-6 Wigan were always chasing something they couldn't quite close. Jai Field's try in the 79th minute made the scoreboard respectable. It didn't change the result.

The stat sheet backs up what the clock suggests. Wakefield ran for 1,070 metres to Wigan's 955, broke the line three times to Wigan's one, and looked after the ball better, six errors against eight. Wigan actually won the tackle bust count, 29 to 22, and shaded the offloads, 6 to 4, so there was plenty of second effort in there. It just didn't translate into line breaks or points. Discipline told too, Wakefield conceding five penalties to Wigan's six, a small edge but the sort that matters in a six-point game.

Wigan came in with the stronger forward pack on paper, 881 to 799, and Wakefield's backs rated higher, 981 to 959. On the night the forward edge showed up in the collision stats, the tackle busts and offloads, but Wakefield's halves, rated 694 to Wigan's 631, look to have had more say in how the ball actually moved. Three line breaks to one is a halves and backline story more than a pack one.

Form lines told a different tale altogether. Wigan arrived on a five-game winning streak, WWWWW, averaging more run metres, more clean breaks and more tackles made per game than Wakefield's WWWLL form. On paper this was a side rounding into shape against one that had lost its last two. None of that showed up on the scoreboard.

Alphr's model had Wigan Warriors at 1819 against Wakefield's 1504 and gave them a 67% chance, with a predicted margin of 7.5 points and a combined total of 43. Wakefield won by 6 in the other direction, and the 26 points scored came in seventeen under the projected total. The model finished 4 from 15 on this one. A reminder that ratings and form streaks are a good guide until a side with sharper halves and a cleaner set of hands decides otherwise.

**Key Match Stats**

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| **1,070** | Run metres | 955 |
| **3** | Line breaks | 1 |
| 22 | Tackle busts | **29** |
| 4 | Offloads | **6** |
| **6** | Errors | 8 |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 6 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 2 |
| 2/4 | Goals | 1/1 |
| 5 | Penalties Conceded | 6 |
| 6 | Errors | 8 |

**Model Report Card**

Wakefield Trinity defied the model's 67% prediction for Wigan Warriors, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.5 but the actual margin was 6 points. The game's 26 points came in 17 points lower than the predicted 43. The model went 4/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (31/100) — penalties Wakefield Trinity 5 · Wigan Warriors 6.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wigan Warriors to win — model probability 67.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Wigan Warriors — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Wigan Warriors 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Wigan Warriors by 8 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Wigan Warriors here: 67% to see off Wakefield Trinity. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wigan Warriors sit 315 ELO points clear, 1819 to 1504. Form leans Wigan Warriors' way: 5 from their last 5, against 3 for Wakefield Trinity.

Wigan Warriors own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Wigan Warriors by 7.5, with the two sides combining for about 43. Wigan Warriors to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 36.4pts | Avg Score | 34.8pts |
| 14.8pts | Avg Conceded | 14.4pts |
| 21.6pts | Avg Margin | 20.4pts |
| 1195.0m | Run Metres | 1320.4m |
| 6.4 | Clean Breaks | 7.2 |
| 250.0 | Tackles | 287.8 |
| 8.2 | Errors | 12.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wakefield Trinity | R10 W · R11 W · R12 W · R13 L · R14 L | 36.4 |
| Wigan Warriors | R10 W · R11 W · R12 W · R13 W · R14 W | 34.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wigan Warriors lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | SF | Wigan Warriors | 6 – 33 | Wakefield Trinity | Wigan Warriors 71% ✗ |
| 2026 | R24 | Wigan Warriors | 26 – 12 | Wakefield Trinity | Wigan Warriors 82% ✓ |
| 2026 | R14 | Wakefield Trinity | 10 – 48 | Wigan Warriors | Wakefield Trinity 62% ✗ |
| 2025 | R23 | Wigan Warriors | 44 – 2 | Wakefield Trinity | not priced |
| 2023 | R18 | Wakefield Trinity | 27 – 26 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 3 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wakefield Trinity's best path is the middle: Super League's 3rd-ranked middle attack (2.36 tries/game) runs at a Wigan Warriors defence ranked 2nd there (0.64 conceded/game). Key man: Jowitt, 9 tries in that channel this season.
- Wigan Warriors' best path is the left edge: Super League's 2nd-ranked left edge attack (1.64 tries/game) runs at a Wakefield Trinity defence ranked 6th there (0.86 conceded/game). Key man: Wardle, 9 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wakefield Trinity | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.5/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 0.86/g (def 6th) | 1.64/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.71/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.36/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 5th) | 2.93/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.64/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Right | 0.93/g (att 6th) · concedes 0.86/g (def 8th) | 1.36/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 3rd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 3 | 15 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 2.1/g |
| Run Metres | 93m/g | 155m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.9/g | 6.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.4% | 89% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 21 · 27 | 52 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 2.4/g |
| Run Metres | 424m/g | 537m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11.9/g | 15.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.9/g | 4.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.7% | 83.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 5th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 16 · 3 | 9 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 343m/g | 373m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.9/g | 10.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.3/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 95.5% | 93.7% |

**Who scores on Wigan Warriors** — Locks 0.04/g (lg 0.04) +0% · 2nd Rows 0.19/g (lg 0.25) -24% · Props 0.07/g (lg 0.13) -46%
**Who scores on Wakefield Trinity** — Halfbacks 0.24/g (lg 0.15) +60% · Fullbacks 0.29/g (lg 0.19) +53% · Wingers 1.27/g (lg 0.88) +44%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Diy Kitchens Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wakefield Trinity** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Jowitt | FB | 9 in 11g | 7/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·1·2·1) | 6/9g | 3/6g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.35 AI 46% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $19.77 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Lachlan Walmsley | WG | 5 in 8g | 5/8g (0·0·0·0·2·0·2·1) | 0/0g | 2/4g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.35 AI 46% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $19.73 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Corey Hall | CE | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/8g | 2/7g | 16% | — | — |
| 4 | Oliver Pratt | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 5 | Tom Johnstone | WG | 5 in 14g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 7/14g | 2/7g | 36% | — | 🏉 53' |
| 6 | Mason Lino | 5/8 | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/7g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Jake Trueman | HB | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Caius Faatili | PR | 6 in 14g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·2·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 4/7g | 25% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.62 AI 62% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $14.57 AI 19% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 17' |
| 9 | Harvey Smith | HK | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/6g | 9% | — | — |
| 10 | Mathieu Cozza | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Seth Nikotemo | 2R | 1 in 7g | 1/7g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Josh Griffin | 2R | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0) | 2/13g | 2/4g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.36 AI 46% ✓ Scored | 🏉 35' |
| 13 | Jay Pitts | LK | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/12g | 1/7g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Cameron Scott | INT | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 2/4g | 24% | — | — |
| 15 | Liam Hood | INT | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 0/5g | 22% | — | — |
| 16 | Isaiah Vagana | INT | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/6g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Jack Croft | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Wigan Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Field | FB | 16 in 13g | 12/10g (1·2·1·2·1·1·0·1·2·1) | 6/5g | 0/0g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.58 AI 63% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $14.24 AI 21% ✗ Not first | 🏉 79' |
| 2 | Zach Eckersley | WG | 5 in 14g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| 3 | Adam Keighran | CE | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 32% | — | 🏉 43' |
| 4 | Jake Wardle | CE | 9 in 13g | 7/10g (1·0·3·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 3/8g | 0/0g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.75 AI 39% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Liam Marshall | WG | 8 in 14g | 6/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·1) | 15/12g | 0/0g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.01 AI 52% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.33 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Bevan French | 5/8 | 9 in 13g | 7/10g (1·1·1·0·0·2·1·0·1·0) | 11/8g | 0/0g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.77 AI 39% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Harry Smith | HB | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/11g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Liam Byrne | PR | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Brad O'Neill | HK | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Luke Thompson | PR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Junior Nsemba | 2R | 5 in 14g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·2·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| 12 | Liam Farrell | 2R | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/16g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Kaide Ellis | LK | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Joseph Havard | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Patrick Mago | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Kruise Leeming | INT | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/16g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 17 | Tyler Dupree | INT | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wakefield Trinity 1504 · Wigan Warriors 1819 · ELO difference: 315 in favour of Wigan Warriors

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Wigan Warriors |

**Model Confidence: 67%** — Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:14 UTC (latest tip update)