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Super League | Round 15

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THE DIY KITCHENS STADIUM • FRIDAY 20 JUNE, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
WAK

Wakefield Trinity

1610
WIG

Wigan Warriors

❌ Upset — model favoured Wigan Warriors at 67%

AI Win Probability

67%Wigan WarriorsFavourite

Wakefield Trinity

33%

Wigan Warriors

67%

AI Match Overview

Wigan Warriors are clear favourites here at 67%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Wakefield Trinity. The model sees Wigan Warriors ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. Wigan Warriors carry a 315-point ELO rating advantage (1819 vs 1504). Recent form favours Wigan Warriors with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Wakefield Trinity. The margin model predicts Wigan Warriors by 7.5 points with a combined total of 43.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Wigan Warriors to Win @1.19

Lost ✗

Edge

-16.9%

Line / Spread

Wigan Warriors -7.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Wigan Warriors 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Wakefield Trinity
R10W
R11W
R12W
R13L
R14L

older → newer

36.4
Wigan Warriors
R10W
R11W
R12W
R13W
R14W
34.8

Avg Conceded

14.8

Wakefield Trinity

14.4

Wigan Warriors

Avg Margin

21.6

Wakefield Trinity

20.4

Wigan Warriors

Run Metres

1195

Wakefield Trinity

1320

Wigan Warriors

Clean Breaks

6.4

Wakefield Trinity

7.2

Wigan Warriors

H2H History (Last 5)Wigan Warriors lead 3-2
Aug 2025WAK 2 - 44 WIG
Jul 2023WAK 27 - 26 WIG
May 2023WAK 6 - 22 WIG
Mar 2023WAK 0 - 60 WIG
Aug 2022WAK 30 - 12 WIG
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

WAK
1504Overall1819
WIG
ELO difference: -315 in favour of Wigan Warriors

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

799Forwards881
Best: 1045WIG +83Best: 1244
981Backs959
Best: 1138WAK +22Best: 1148
694Halves631
Best: 694WAK +63Best: 631
600Hooker631
WIG +31

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WAK
Stat
WIG
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
5.0
36.4pts
Avg Score
34.8pts
14.8pts
Avg Conceded
14.4pts
21.6pts
Avg Margin
20.4pts
1195.0m
Run Metres
1320.4m
6.4
Clean Breaks
7.2
250.0
Tackles
287.8
8.2
Errors
12.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Warriors
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Warriors
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Trinity
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Warriors
5
Halves Control9.0%
Trinity
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Warriors
7
H2H History6.0%
Warriors

Model Confidence

67%

Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 7 points

Predicted total: 43 · Line: -7.5

0/4 match predictions correct