St Helens
Leeds Rhinos
AI Win Probability
St Helens
59%
Leeds Rhinos
41%
AI Match Overview
St Helens hold the advantage at 59% win probability, though Leeds Rhinos are far from out of this at 41%. Leeds Rhinos are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate, but St Helens counter with Backline Quality and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Leeds Rhinos carry a 65-point ELO rating advantage (1639 vs 1573). Recent form favours Leeds Rhinos with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for St Helens.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
St Helens to Win @2.45
Winner ✓
Edge
+17.8%
Line / Spread
St Helens +0.9 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
St Helens Draw @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 40.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
St Helens | R10L R11W R12W R13L R14W older → newer | 28.0 |
Leeds Rhinos | R10W R11W R12W R13W R14W | 24.4 |
Avg Conceded
11.8
St Helens
11.2
Leeds Rhinos
Avg Margin
16.2
St Helens
13.2
Leeds Rhinos
Run Metres
1115
St Helens
1457
Leeds Rhinos
Clean Breaks
6.2
St Helens
5.6
Leeds Rhinos
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
59%
St Helens predicted to win by 1 points
Predicted total: 39 · Line: +0.9