# St Helens v Leeds Rhinos — Super League Round 15 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: St Helens 18 – 4 Leeds Rhinos

_St Helens march in over Leeds Rhinos._

Half time: 8 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: St Helens 59% / Leeds Rhinos 41% · The BrewDog Stadium · Fri, 20 June, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — St Helens: Deon Cross (39' 1st), Owen Dagnall (62'), Tristan Sailor (79' Tipped ⚡) · Leeds Rhinos: Riley Lumb (46' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | 59% | Won |
| Leeds Rhinos | 41% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 0.9 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St Helens vs Leeds Rhinos Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 15 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:14 pm_

St Helens 18–4 Leeds Rhinos in Super League Round 15 at The BrewDog Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

St Helens wanted the ball in their own hands. Leeds Rhinos wanted it in space. Twelve offloads to St Helens' three, 1,076 running metres to 980, tackle busts basically level at 43 to 42: that's a side trying to play with width and ambition. St Helens, by contrast, played it tight, controlled the ball and let the penalty count do the talking. Final score: St Helens 18, Leeds Rhinos 4, at The BrewDog Stadium.

The gap wasn't in how much ground either side covered. Leeds actually shaded the metres. It was in what each side did with the ball once they had it. St Helens broke the line five times to Leeds' one, and made just 9 errors to the visitors' 14. St Helens also conceded only 2 penalties against Leeds' 6. Ambition without control doesn't get you far, and that mismatch let St Helens dictate territory without needing to dominate it physically.

St Helens took an early lead through the boot, with Kyle Feldt slotting a penalty goal in the 9th minute and another in the 25th to make it 4-0. It wasn't until the 39th minute that St Helens got their first try, Deon Cross crossing to make it 8-0 at the break. That was the score at half-time: St Helens 8, Leeds Rhinos 0, built entirely on discipline and a bit of boot from Feldt rather than any real attacking avalanche.

Leeds hit back three minutes into the second half. Riley Lumb scored in the 46th minute to bring it to 8-4, and for a moment there was a sniff of a contest. But St Helens had the better of the individual moments that mattered. Owen Dagnall crossed in the 62nd minute to push the lead to 12-4, and two minutes later Feldt added the conversion to make it 14-4. Tristan Sailor put the game to bed in the 79th minute, finishing it out at 18-4.

Looking at the ledger of positional strength coming in, Leeds had the stronger halves and hooker on paper, rating 1111 and 971 respectively against St Helens' 800 and 600. St Helens held a big edge in the backs, 1178 to 876, and a smaller one in the forwards. On paper, Leeds should have had more control through the middle of the field. In practice, St Helens' shape and discipline nullified whatever creative edge Leeds were meant to hold.

Form coming in suggested a tighter contest than what played out. Leeds arrived on the back of five straight wins and were averaging over 24 points a game, while St Helens had wobbled with a loss in their last five. Leeds were also averaging more run metres per game across that stretch, 1457.2 to St Helens' 1115.4. None of that showed up when it counted here.

Alphr's model had St Helens as 59% favourites and got the winner right, but the margin model whiffed badly, tipping St Helens by just 0.9 points and a combined total near 39. The actual margin was 14, and the total landed at 22, some 17 points under what was predicted. It's the kind of match that reminds you a razor-thin rating gap on paper doesn't always mean a razor-thin game on the field. St Helens controlled it from start to finish and Leeds never found the discipline to match their ambition.

**Key Match Stats**

| St Helens | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 980 | Run metres | **1,076** |
| **5** | Line breaks | 1 |
| 42 | Tackle busts | **43** |
| 3 | Offloads | **12** |
| **9** | Errors | 14 |
| **2** | Penalties conceded | 6 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| St Helens | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 1 |
| 3/5 | Goals | 0/1 |
| 2 | Penalties Conceded | 6 |
| 9 | Errors | 14 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted St Helens to win at 59% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 0.9 but the actual margin was 14 points. The game's 22 points came in 17 points lower than the predicted 39. The model went 3/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (36/100) — penalties St Helens 2 · Leeds Rhinos 6.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Helens to win — model probability 58.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** St Helens — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** St Helens 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: St Helens by 1 · Predicted total: 39

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

St Helens are the call at 59%, but Leeds Rhinos stay live at 41%. The ratings say otherwise: Leeds Rhinos sit 65 ELO points clear, 1639 to 1573, so the model is backing St Helens against the ratings gap. Form leans Leeds Rhinos' way: 5 from their last 5, against 3 for St Helens.

On paper Leeds Rhinos shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The model still sides with St Helens, which says Backline Quality and Venue Advantage carry the most weight. Lean St Helens, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| St Helens | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 28.0pts | Avg Score | 24.4pts |
| 11.8pts | Avg Conceded | 11.2pts |
| 16.2pts | Avg Margin | 13.2pts |
| 1115.4m | Run Metres | 1457.2m |
| 6.2 | Clean Breaks | 5.6 |
| 260.6 | Tackles | 300.2 |
| 9.2 | Errors | 10.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | R10 L · R11 W · R12 W · R13 L · R14 W | 28.0 |
| Leeds Rhinos | R10 W · R11 W · R12 W · R13 W · R14 W | 24.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Leeds Rhinos lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R25 | St Helens | 6 – 34 | Leeds Rhinos | Leeds Rhinos 65% ✓ |
| 2026 | R13 | Leeds Rhinos | 24 – 16 | St Helens | St Helens 53% ✗ |
| 2025 | EF | Leeds Rhinos | 14 – 16 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2025 | R18 | Leeds Rhinos | 0 – 6 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2025 | R10 | St Helens | 4 – 17 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- St Helens' best path is the right edge: Super League's 1st-ranked right edge attack (1.57 tries/game) runs at a Leeds Rhinos defence ranked 2nd there (0.43 conceded/game). Key man: Robertson, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Leeds Rhinos' best path is the right edge: Super League's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.43 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 3rd there (0.5 conceded/game). Key man: Lumb, 9 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | St Helens | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.21/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.57/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 0.79/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.57/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.93/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.64/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.36/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.86/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 1.57/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.43/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.43/g (def 2nd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | St Helens | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 5 | 5 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 183m/g | 127m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.8/g | 2.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.5% | 94.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | St Helens | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 5th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 37 · 17 | 28 · 17 |
| Try Assists | 2.1/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 443m/g | 576m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 17.3/g | 17.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.4/g | 2.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.1% | 86.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | St Helens | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 2 | 8 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 331m/g | 329m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.6/g | 5.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.8% | 93.8% |

**Who scores on Leeds Rhinos** — Locks 0.06/g (lg 0.04) +50% · Hookers 0.1/g (lg 0.09) +11% · Centres 0.37/g (lg 0.38) -3%
**Who scores on St Helens** — Centres 0.37/g (lg 0.38) -3% · Five-Eighths 0.15/g (lg 0.18) -17% · Wingers 0.68/g (lg 0.88) -23%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The BrewDog Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tristan Sailor | FB | 9 in 14g | 5/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 0/1g | 5/5g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.50 AI 30% ✓ Scored | 🏉 79' |
| 2 | Kyle Feldt | WG | 7 in 5g | 7/5g (1·1·1·0·4) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.79 AI 57% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.78 AI 27% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Harry Robertson | CE | 8 in 9g | 8/9g (2·2·1·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 0/0g | 3/4g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.93 AI 36% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $23.85 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Deon Cross | CE | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 3/6g | 22% | — | 🏉 39' |
| 5 | Owen Dagnall | WG | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 33% | — | 🏉 62' |
| 6 | Jonny Lomax | 5/8 | 2 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 13/57g | 20% | — | — |
| 7 | Moses Mbye | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Alex Walmsley | PR | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 7/17g | 10/50g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Daryl Clark | HK | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/23g | 5/20g | 16% | — | — |
| 10 | Matty Lees | PR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 2/49g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Jake Wingfield | 2R | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/22g | 0% | — | — |
| 12 | Matt Whitley | 2R | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/15g | 5/17g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Morgan Knowles | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Agnatius Paasi | INT | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 5/35g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | George Delaney | INT | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/26g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Noah Stephens | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Jake Burns | INT | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 18% | — | — |

**Leeds Rhinos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lachlan Miller | FB | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 27% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.91 AI 26% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Riley Lumb | WG | 9 in 14g | 6/10g (1·1·0·0·1·1·1·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.07 AI 51% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $17.75 AI 18% ✗ Not first | 🏉 46' |
| 3 | Harry Newman | CE | 5 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 2/11g | 1/6g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.55 AI 42% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $21.16 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Ash Handley | CE | 4 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 16/21g | 2/7g | 36% | — | — |
| 5 | Ryan Hall | WG | 6 in 12g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 6/14g | 1/5g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.56 AI 42% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $21.22 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Brodie Croft | 5/8 | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/6g | 1/3g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Jake Connor | HB | 4 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/19g | 0/6g | 18% | — | — |
| 8 | Mikolaj Oledzki | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Jarrod O'Connor | HK | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/6g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Keenan Palasia | PR | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Morgan Gannon | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | James Mcdonnell | 2R | 6 in 14g | 6/10g (0·1·4·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/3g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Kallum Watkins | LK | 3 in 11g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/20g | 2/9g | 18% | — | — |
| 14 | Cam Smith | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Lisone | INT | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 16 | James Bentley | INT | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/11g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Tom Holroyd | INT | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/9g | 0/5g | 16% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — St Helens 1573 · Leeds Rhinos 1639 · ELO difference: 65 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | St Helens |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | St Helens |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | St Helens |

**Model Confidence: 59%** — St Helens predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 39 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/super-league/match/2025-r15-st-helens-v-leeds-rhinos
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:14 UTC (latest tip update)