# Salford Red Devils v Hull FC — Super League Round 15 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Salford Red Devils 6 – 38 Hull FC

_Hull FC put Salford Red Devils to the sword._

Half time: 6 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Salford Red Devils 33% / Hull FC 67% · Salford Community Stadium · Sun, 22 June, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Salford Red Devils: Chris Hankinson (20') · Hull FC: Cade Cust (7' 1st), Lewis Martin (27' Tipped ⚡), Davy Litten (33' Tipped ⚡), Sam Eseh (42' Tipped ⚡), Zak Hardaker (53'), Tom Briscoe (66' Tipped ⚡), Harvey Barron (77' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull FC | 67% | Won |
| Salford Red Devils | 33% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 8.9 predicted → 32 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Salford Red Devils vs Hull FC Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 15 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:14 pm_

Salford Red Devils 6–38 Hull FC in Super League Round 15 at Salford Community Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Hull FC overran Salford Red Devils 38–6 at Salford Community Stadium. Leading 14–6 at half-time, Hull FC pulled clear late.

Cade Cust opened the scoring; Salford Red Devils crossed through Chris Hankinson; Hull FC scored through Cade Cust, Lewis Martin, Davy Litten, Sam Eseh, Zak Hardaker, Tom Briscoe and Harvey Barron.

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hull FC to win at 67% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 8.9 but the actual margin was 32 points. Total score prediction of 46 was close to the actual 44, within 2 points. Hull FC led 6–14 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 32. The model went 6/15 on this match.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull FC to win — model probability 66.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hull FC — model probability 66.7% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hull FC 1-12 — model probability 66.7% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hull FC by 9 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Hull FC here: 67% to see off Salford Red Devils. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hull FC sit 237 ELO points clear, 1438 to 1201. Form leans Hull FC's way: 2 from their last 5, against 0 for Salford Red Devils.

On paper Salford Red Devils shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The model still sides with Hull FC, which says ELO Difference and Recent Win Rate carry the most weight. The margin model has Hull FC by 8.9, with the two sides combining for about 46. Hull FC to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Salford Red Devils | Stat | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 7.2pts | Avg Score | 20.0pts |
| 53.2pts | Avg Conceded | 12.8pts |
| -46.0pts | Avg Margin | 7.2pts |
| 650.2m | Run Metres | 1097.8m |
| 2.4 | Clean Breaks | 4.2 |
| 185.0 | Tackles | 306.2 |
| 5.4 | Errors | 10.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Salford Red Devils | R10 L · R11 L · R12 L · R13 L · R14 L | 7.2 |
| Hull FC | R10 L · R11 L · R12 W · R13 W · R14 L | 20.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Salford Red Devils lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R21 | Hull FC | 80 – 6 | Salford Red Devils |
| 2024 | R26 | Hull FC | 4 – 58 | Salford Red Devils |
| 2024 | R16 | Salford Red Devils | 22 – 20 | Hull FC |
| 2023 | R13 | Salford Red Devils | 29 – 22 | Hull FC |
| 2023 | R4 | Hull FC | 14 – 60 | Salford Red Devils |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Salford Red Devils' best path is the left edge: Super League's 11th-ranked left edge attack (0.29 tries/game) runs at a Hull defence ranked 7th there (0.93 conceded/game). Key man: Macdonald, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Hull's best path is the right edge: Super League's 8th-ranked right edge attack (0.79 tries/game) runs at a Salford Red Devils defence ranked 12th there (2.71 conceded/game). Key man: Barron, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Salford Red Devils | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.29/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.43/g (def 12th (weak)) | 1.14/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.93/g (def 7th) |
| Middle | 0.36/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 2.86/g (def 12th (weak)) | 1.29/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.5/g (def 7th) |
| Right | 0.36/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 2.71/g (def 12th (weak)) | 0.79/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.71/g (def 5th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Salford Red Devils | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 10th (weak) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 12 | 4 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 107m/g | 129m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.6/g | 4.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.8% | 89% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Salford Red Devils | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 53 | 25 · 27 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 266m/g | 379m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.3/g | 8.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.3/g | 1.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.9% | 78.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Salford Red Devils | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 5th |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 5th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 19 | 9 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 139m/g | 364m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.6/g | 9.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.9% | 91.1% |

**Who scores on Hull** — Fullbacks 0.28/g (lg 0.19) +47% · Hookers 0.13/g (lg 0.09) +44% · Halfbacks 0.21/g (lg 0.15) +40%
**Who scores on Salford Red Devils** — Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.04) +75% · 2nd Rows 0.43/g (lg 0.25) +72% · Five-Eighths 0.26/g (lg 0.18) +44%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Salford Community Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Salford Red Devils** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nathan Connell | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Jonny Vaughan | WG | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 14% | — | — |
| 3 | Toby Warren | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Chris Hankinson | CE | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/3g | 14% | — | 🏉 20' |
| 5 | Samuel Hill | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.43 AI 44% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $20.30 AI 21% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Ryan Brierley | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Esan Marsters | HB | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 1/6g | 18% | — | — |
| 8 | Chris Hill | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Cain Robb | HK | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Jack Ormondroyd | PR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Matty Foster | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Dan Russell | 2R | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Shorrocks | LK | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/6g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Harvey Wilson | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Thomas Whitehead | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Kobe Rugless | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Joe Bullock | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Hull** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jordan Rapana | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.23 AI 48% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Harvey Barron | WG | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 43% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.64 AI 61% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $14.69 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 77' |
| 3 | Tom Briscoe | CE | 6 in 14g | 5/10g (0·1·2·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 6/13g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.08 AI 51% ✓ Scored | 🏉 66' |
| 4 | Davy Litten | CE | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 17% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.71 AI 40% ✓ Scored | 🏉 33' |
| 5 | Lewis Martin | WG | 11 in 14g | 8/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·1·1·1·2) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.73 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.10 AI 26% ✗ Not first | 🏉 27' |
| 6 | Cade Cust | 5/8 | 3 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 10% | — | 🏉 7' |
| 7 | Aidan Sezer | HB | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Herman Ese'ese | PR | 7 in 14g | 6/10g (1·1·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 31% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.13 AI 75% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.03 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 9 | Amir Bourouh | HK | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Liam Knight | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Zak Hardaker | 2R | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/22g | 0/0g | 10% | — | 🏉 53' |
| 12 | Ed Chamberlain | 2R | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 13 | Yusuf Aydin | LK | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Jack Ashworth | INT | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Eseh | INT | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 9% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.08 AI 51% ✓ Scored | 🏉 42' |
| 16 | Brad Fash | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/15g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Jack Charles | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Salford Red Devils 1201 · Hull FC 1438 · ELO difference: 237 in favour of Hull FC

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Hull FC |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Salford Red Devils |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Salford Red Devils |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Hull FC |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Salford Red Devils |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Hull FC |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Salford Red Devils |

**Model Confidence: 67%** — Hull FC predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:14 UTC (latest tip update)