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Super League | Round 15

alphr.com.au

STADE GILBERT BRUTUS • SATURDAY 21 JUNE, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
CAT

Catalans Dragons

1226
LEI

Leigh Leopards

✅ Model correct — backed Leigh Leopards at 69%

AI Win Probability

69%Leigh LeopardsFavourite

Catalans Dragons

31%

Leigh Leopards

69%

AI Match Overview

Leigh Leopards are clear favourites here at 69%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Catalans Dragons. The model sees Leigh Leopards ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Leigh Leopards carry a 194-point ELO rating advantage (1569 vs 1375). Recent form favours Leigh Leopards with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Catalans Dragons. The margin model predicts Leigh Leopards by 8.2 points with a combined total of 44.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Leigh Leopards to Win @1.46

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.3%

Line / Spread

Leigh Leopards -8.2 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Leigh Leopards 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Catalans Dragons
R10L
R11L
R12L
R13L
R14L

older → newer

6.0
Leigh Leopards
R10W
R11L
R12L
R13W
R14W
23.6

Avg Conceded

43.2

Catalans Dragons

26.0

Leigh Leopards

Avg Margin

-37.2

Catalans Dragons

-2.4

Leigh Leopards

Run Metres

577

Catalans Dragons

1197

Leigh Leopards

Clean Breaks

0.8

Catalans Dragons

6.4

Leigh Leopards

H2H History (Last 5)Leigh Leopards lead 4-1
May 2026CAT 18 - 33 LEI
Mar 2026CAT 22 - 16 LEI
May 2025CAT 24 - 26 LEI
Mar 2025CAT 6 - 34 LEI
Feb 2024CAT 2 - 30 LEI
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

CAT
1375Overall1569
LEI
ELO difference: -194 in favour of Leigh Leopards

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

855Forwards949
Best: 1013LEI +94Best: 1126
704Backs940
Best: 774LEI +236Best: 1167
800Halves797
Best: 800EvenBest: 797
603Hooker744
LEI +141

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

CAT
Stat
LEI
0.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
6.0pts
Avg Score
23.6pts
43.2pts
Avg Conceded
26.0pts
-37.2pts
Avg Margin
-2.4pts
577.4m
Run Metres
1197.0m
0.8
Clean Breaks
6.4
217.6
Tackles
288.2
6.8
Errors
8.8

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Leopards
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Leopards
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Leopards
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Leopards
5
Halves Control9.0%
Dragons
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Dragons
7
H2H History6.0%
Leopards

Model Confidence

69%

Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 8 points

Predicted total: 44 · Line: -8.2

2/4 match predictions correct