# Catalans Dragons v Leigh Leopards — Super League Round 15 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Catalans Dragons 12 – 26 Leigh Leopards

_Leigh Leopards pounce on Catalans Dragons._

Half time: 6 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Catalans Dragons 31% / Leigh Leopards 69% · Stade Gilbert Brutus · Sat, 21 June, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Catalans Dragons: Tevita Pangai Junior (37'), Tommy Makinson (48' Tipped ⚡) · Leigh Leopards: Tesi Niu (29' 1st), Keanan Brand (33'), Joe Ofahengaue (67' Tipped ⚡), David Armstrong (72' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | 69% | Won |
| Catalans Dragons | 31% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 8.2 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Catalans Dragons vs Leigh Leopards Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 15 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:14 pm_

Catalans Dragons 12–26 Leigh Leopards in Super League Round 15 at Stade Gilbert Brutus. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Catalans Dragons played the tidier game. Four errors to Leigh's five, discipline edge too, six penalties conceded against eight. None of it mattered. Leigh Leopards ran for 1,105 metres to Catalans' 651, busted 45 tackles to 18, and broke the line six times while Catalans managed none. Control is worth something in this competition. It wasn't worth as much as sheer go-forward, and Leigh Leopards won 26-12 at Stade Gilbert Brutus on the back of it.

The scoreboard told that story early. Tesi Niu crossed in the 29th minute, Gareth O'Brien's boot made it 6-0, and by the 34th minute Keanan Brand had it out to 12-0 after another O'Brien conversion. Catalans Dragons got a foothold through Tevita Pangai Junior right on the stroke of the break, Tommy Makinson's conversion trimming it to 6-12 at half-time. That gap, six points, was never really closed.

Makinson himself levelled things up briefly. His try in the 48th minute and the conversion two minutes later had it locked at 12-12, and for a spell it looked like Catalans might nick this off pure grit. But Leigh Leopards had the answers ready. Joe Ofahengaue barged over in the 67th minute, David Armstrong added another in the 72nd, and O'Brien slotted a penalty goal in the 79th to put a final gloss on it. Four converted scores plus the penalty in the last third of the match, none of it left to chance.

The gulf shows up in the positional numbers too. Leigh's forward pack rated at 949 against Catalans' 855, and their backline at 940 against 704, and on a night when metres and busts decided things, that's exactly where you'd expect the difference to show. Catalans' hooker rating, 603 to Leigh's 744, lines up with a Dragons side that could hold the ball but couldn't find the go-forward to back it up.

Form coming in pointed the same way. Catalans arrived on a five-game losing streak, averaging just 6 points a game and shipping 43.2. Leigh had won three of their last five, averaging 23.6 scored and only 26 conceded. Catalans' average margin over that stretch was minus 37.2. On that kind of formline, a 14-point loss with a red-blooded second half from Leigh was about as kind an outcome as the home side could have hoped for.

Alphr's model had Leigh Leopards favourites at 69 percent, with a predicted margin of 8.2 and a combined total of 44. The actual margin was 14, the actual total 38. Not a bad read at all, just a touch conservative on how far Leigh would pull clear once the ball started travelling their way. Elsewhere on the card the model went 4 from 15, so this one was a bright spot rather than the trend.

Catalans did enough with the ball to make it respectable. They just didn't do enough with it to make it count. Leigh Leopards turned metres into tries and tries into points, and that's the version of rugby league that wins on the night.

**Key Match Stats**

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 651 | Run metres | **1,105** |
| 0 | Line breaks | **6** |
| 18 | Tackle busts | **45** |
| 6 | Offloads | **8** |
| **4** | Errors | 5 |
| **6** | Penalties conceded | 8 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 4 |
| 2/4 | Goals | 5/6 |
| 6 | Penalties Conceded | 8 |
| 4 | Errors | 5 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leigh Leopards to win at 69% probability. The predicted margin of 8.2 was reasonable against the actual 14-point result. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 38, within 6 points. Leigh Leopards led 6–12 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 14. The model went 4/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (19/100) — penalties Catalans Dragons 6 · Leigh Leopards 8.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leigh Leopards to win — model probability 68.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Leigh Leopards — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Leigh Leopards 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Leigh Leopards by 8 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Leigh Leopards here: 69% to see off Catalans Dragons. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leigh Leopards sit 194 ELO points clear, 1569 to 1375. Form leans Leigh Leopards' way: 3 from their last 5, against 0 for Catalans Dragons.

Leigh Leopards own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Leigh Leopards by 8.2, with the two sides combining for about 44. Leigh Leopards to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 6.0pts | Avg Score | 23.6pts |
| 43.2pts | Avg Conceded | 26.0pts |
| -37.2pts | Avg Margin | -2.4pts |
| 577.4m | Run Metres | 1197.0m |
| 0.8 | Clean Breaks | 6.4 |
| 217.6 | Tackles | 288.2 |
| 6.8 | Errors | 8.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Catalans Dragons | R10 L · R11 L · R12 L · R13 L · R14 L | 6.0 |
| Leigh Leopards | R10 W · R11 L · R12 L · R13 W · R14 W | 23.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Leigh Leopards lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R10 | Catalans Dragons | 18 – 33 | Leigh Leopards | Catalans Dragons 52% ✗ |
| 2026 | R4 | Leigh Leopards | 16 – 22 | Catalans Dragons | Leigh Leopards 70% ✗ |
| 2025 | R10 | Leigh Leopards | 26 – 24 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |
| 2025 | R3 | Leigh Leopards | 34 – 6 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Leigh Leopards | 30 – 2 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 0 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Catalans Dragons' best path is the middle: Super League's 10th-ranked middle attack (0.64 tries/game) runs at a Leigh Leopards defence ranked 6th there (1.36 conceded/game). Key man: Satae, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Leigh Leopards' best path is the left edge: Super League's 4th-ranked left edge attack (1.21 tries/game) runs at a Catalans Dragons defence ranked 10th there (1.36 conceded/game). Key man: Hanley, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Catalans Dragons | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.29/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.36/g (def 10th (weak)) | 1.21/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.79/g (def 5th) |
| Middle | 0.64/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 2.07/g (def 10th (weak)) | 1.36/g (att 5th) · concedes 1.36/g (def 6th) |
| Right | 0.36/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 0.79/g (def 7th) | 1/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.71/g (def 5th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 5th |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 5th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 18 | 7 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 2.4/g |
| Run Metres | 19m/g | 147m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 0.6/g | 3.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.1/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.5% | 85.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th (weak) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 6th | 5th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 21 | 25 · 20 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 373m/g | 568m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 12.7/g | 17.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.4/g | 2.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.1% | 83.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th (weak) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 15 | 15 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 168m/g | 384m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.6/g | 7.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.2/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.5% | 94.5% |

**Who scores on Leigh Leopards** — Halfbacks 0.18/g (lg 0.15) +20% · Five-Eighths 0.2/g (lg 0.18) +11% · Props 0.13/g (lg 0.13) +0%
**Who scores on Catalans Dragons** — Locks 0.06/g (lg 0.04) +50% · Five-Eighths 0.23/g (lg 0.18) +28% · Props 0.16/g (lg 0.13) +23%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Stade Gilbert Brutus. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Catalans Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sam Tomkins | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Tommy Makinson | WG | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·3·0·0·0) | 4/6g | 5/10g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.86 AI 38% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $23.33 AI 21% ✗ Not first | 🏉 48' |
| 3 | Matthieu Laguerre | CE | 4 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 3/16g | 20% | — | — |
| 4 | Leo Darrelatour | CE | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 33% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Nick Cotric | WG | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 6 | Cesar Rouge | 5/8 | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 3/19g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Luke Keary | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Chris Satae | PR | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 2/21g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Alrix Da Costa | HK | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 2/37g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Franck Maria | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Arthur Romano | 2R | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 8/34g | 12% | — | — |
| 12 | Paul Seguier | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Oliver Partington | LK | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/11g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Julian Bousquet | INT | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 7/46g | 16% | — | — |
| 15 | Jordan Dezaria | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/35g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Tevita Pangai Junior | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 37' |
| 17 | Bayley Sironen | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Leigh Leopards** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Armstrong | FB | 6 in 9g | 6/9g (0·1·2·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.96 AI 54% ✓ Scored | 🏉 72' |
| 2 | Darnell Mcintosh | WG | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/16g | 1/5g | 24% | — | — |
| 3 | Tesi Niu | CE | 3 in 12g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 23% | — | 🏉 29' |
| 4 | Umyla Hanley | CE | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·0·3·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/5g | 0/3g | 26% | — | — |
| 5 | Keanan Brand | WG | 3 in 12g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 15% | — | 🏉 33' |
| 6 | Gareth O'Brien | 5/8 | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 1/4g | 8% | — | — |
| 7 | Lachlan Lam | HB | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/7g | 0/3g | 16% | — | — |
| 8 | Joe Ofahengaue | PR | 2 in 5g | 2/5g (0·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.52 AI 64% ✓ Scored | 🏉 67' |
| 9 | Edwin Ipape | HK | 4 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/5g | 1/2g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.58 AI 63% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | Robbie Mulhern | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Frankie Halton | 2R | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.42 AI 67% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.12 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Owen Trout | 2R | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 2/9g | 0/4g | 12% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.48 AI 65% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Isaac Liu | LK | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Ben McNamara | INT | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/5g | 0/2g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.01 AI 53% ✗ No try | — |
| 15 | Alec Tuitavake | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Matt Davis | INT | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Ethan O'Neill | INT | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·2·0) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.93 AI 81% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.60 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Catalans Dragons 1375 · Leigh Leopards 1569 · ELO difference: 194 in favour of Leigh Leopards

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | — |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Leigh Leopards |

**Model Confidence: 69%** — Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/super-league/match/2025-r15-catalans-dragons-v-leigh-leopards
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:14 UTC (latest tip update)