Castleford Tigers
Hull KR
AI Win Probability
Castleford Tigers
22%
Hull KR
78%
AI Match Overview
Hull KR are clear favourites here at 78%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Castleford Tigers. The model sees Hull KR ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Hull KR carry a 473-point ELO rating advantage (1806 vs 1333). Recent form favours Hull KR with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Castleford Tigers. The margin model predicts Hull KR by 11.0 points with a combined total of 45.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Hull KR to Win @1.13
Winner ✓
Edge
-10.1%
Line / Spread
Hull KR -11 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Hull KR 1-12 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 40.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Castleford Tigers | R10L R11W R12L R13L R14W older → newer | 21.6 |
Hull KR | R10W R11W R12W R13W R14W | 44.2 |
Avg Conceded
25.0
Castleford Tigers
4.4
Hull KR
Avg Margin
-3.4
Castleford Tigers
39.8
Hull KR
Run Metres
953
Castleford Tigers
1329
Hull KR
Clean Breaks
3.8
Castleford Tigers
11.0
Hull KR
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
78%
Hull KR predicted to win by 11 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: -11.0