# Castleford Tigers v Hull KR — Super League Round 15 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Castleford Tigers 0 – 48 Hull KR

_Hull KR outfox Castleford Tigers._

Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Castleford Tigers 22% / Hull KR 78% · The Jungle · Thu, 19 June, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Castleford Tigers: none · Hull KR: Jack Broadbent (3' 1st Tipped ⚡), Noah Booth (9' Tipped ⚡), Tom Davies (24' Tipped ⚡), Arthur Mourgue (31'), Jai Whitbread (52'), Noah Booth (65' Tipped ⚡), Peta Hiku (69' Tipped ⚡), Tom Davies (72' Tipped ⚡), Jack Broadbent (78' 1st Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | 78% | Won |
| Castleford Tigers | 22% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 11.0 predicted → 48 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Castleford Tigers vs Hull KR Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 15 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:14 pm_

Castleford Tigers 0–48 Hull KR in Super League Round 15 at The Jungle. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Castleford Tigers actually won a stat. Tackle busts, 35 to 20, and it's not close. Problem is tackle busts don't mean much when you can't turn them into anything, and Castleford managed just 2 line breaks all night against Hull KR's 11. Whatever they were breaking through was getting mopped up before it counted.

The final score reads 48-0, and the timeline says that gap opened early and never looked like closing. Jack Broadbent had Hull KR up 0-4 inside three minutes, Noah Booth made it 0-10 by the 9th, and Arthur Mourgue's conversions kept ticking over. By the 31st minute, with Mourgue crossing himself, it was already 0-20. That's not a match slipping away late. That's a match that was gone before it was half done.

To their credit, Castleford didn't collapse into chaos with the ball. Ten errors to Hull KR's eight is a manageable gap, and given how far behind they fell, they could easily have panicked and given up possession in bunches. They didn't. The issue wasn't discipline or ill-discipline either, penalties were level at 2 apiece. The issue was simpler than that: Hull KR had the ball doing more when it mattered, and Castleford didn't have the go-forward to match it.

That shows up in the run metres, 988 for Castleford against 1,856 for Hull KR. Nearly double. Hull KR's forward pack rating of 996 against Castleford's 862 was always going to show up somewhere, and it showed up right there, metre after metre, set after set. The backs gap was even bigger on paper, 1227 to 924, and Hull KR's outside men made it count with tries to Tom Davies (2), Peta Hiku and Jai Whitbread layered on top of Broadbent's brace and Booth's double.

Hull KR just kept the scoreboard moving. A try in the 52nd, another at 65, then Hiku in the 69th and Davies again in the 72nd before Broadbent completed his double in the 78th. Eight tries in all, six different names on the sheet, Mourgue slotting the conversions all night to finish with 48 points on the board.

Castleford came in off a mixed run, two wins from five, and an average margin of minus 3.4 that told its own story before a ball was kicked. Hull KR arrived with five straight wins, an average margin of plus 39.8, and conceding just 4.4 points a game. Put those two form lines next to each other and 48-0 stops looking freakish and starts looking like the ceiling case doing exactly what it said it would.

Alphr's model had Hull KR at 78 percent to win and picked the total almost dead on, tipping 45 against an actual 48. Where it fell over was the margin, forecasting an 11-point win instead of a 48-point demolition. Wins and misses, all of it. The scoreline this time belonged entirely to Hull KR, and Castleford will want this one out of the system fast.

**Key Match Stats**

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 988 | Run metres | **1,856** |
| 2 | Line breaks | **11** |
| **35** | Tackle busts | 20 |
| 7 | Offloads | **11** |
| 10 | Errors | **8** |
| 2 | Penalties conceded | 2 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Tries | 9 |
| 0/0 | Goals | 6/9 |
| 2 | Penalties Conceded | 2 |
| 10 | Errors | 8 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hull KR to win at 78% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 11.0 but the actual margin was 48 points. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 48, within 4 points. The model went 5/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (0/100) — penalties Castleford Tigers 2 · Hull KR 2.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull KR to win — model probability 78.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hull KR — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hull KR 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hull KR by 11 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Hull KR here: 78% to see off Castleford Tigers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hull KR sit 473 ELO points clear, 1806 to 1333. Form leans Hull KR's way: 5 from their last 5, against 2 for Castleford Tigers.

Hull KR own the matchup too, leading 7 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Hull KR by 11.0, with the two sides combining for about 45. Hull KR to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 21.6pts | Avg Score | 44.2pts |
| 25.0pts | Avg Conceded | 4.4pts |
| -3.4pts | Avg Margin | 39.8pts |
| 953.2m | Run Metres | 1329.0m |
| 3.8 | Clean Breaks | 11.0 |
| 276.2 | Tackles | 275.8 |
| 7.4 | Errors | 10.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Castleford Tigers | R10 L · R11 W · R12 L · R13 L · R14 W | 21.6 |
| Hull KR | R10 W · R11 W · R12 W · R13 W · R14 W | 44.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Hull KR lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R22 | Castleford Tigers | 0 – 44 | Hull KR | Hull KR 52% ✓ |
| 2026 | R10 | Hull KR | 50 – 6 | Castleford Tigers | Hull KR 82% ✓ |
| 2025 | R21 | Hull KR | 36 – 6 | Castleford Tigers | not priced |
| 2025 | R1 | Hull KR | 19 – 18 | Castleford Tigers | not priced |
| 2024 | R21 | Hull KR | 36 – 6 | Castleford Tigers | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Castleford Tigers' best path is the left edge: Super League's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1.14 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 1st there (0.43 conceded/game). Key man: Senior, 7 tries in that channel this season.
- Hull KR's best path is the right edge: Super League's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.43 tries/game) runs at a Castleford Tigers defence ranked 11th there (1.29 conceded/game). Key man: Davies, 8 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Castleford Tigers | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.14/g (att 5th) · concedes 1/g (def 8th) | 1.57/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.43/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Middle | 0.93/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.64/g (def 8th) | 2.71/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Right | 0.36/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 1.29/g (def 11th (weak)) | 1.43/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.43/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 5 | 19 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 98m/g | 207m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.6/g | 7.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.2/g | 1.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.8% | 85.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 19 · 35 | 40 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 2.1/g |
| Run Metres | 371m/g | 570m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.8/g | 13.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.8/g | 3.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.2% | 83% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 9 | 10 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 229m/g | 290m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5/g | 6.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.6% | 94.3% |

**Who scores on Hull KR** — 2nd Rows 0.24/g (lg 0.25) -4% · Fullbacks 0.17/g (lg 0.19) -11% · Hookers 0.08/g (lg 0.09) -11%
**Who scores on Castleford Tigers** — Locks 0.12/g (lg 0.04) +200% · Fullbacks 0.31/g (lg 0.19) +63% · Props 0.21/g (lg 0.13) +62%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Jungle. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Castleford Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zac Cini | FB | 4 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 2/7g | 25% | — | — |
| 2 | Josh Simm | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Louis Senior | CE | 2 in 4g | 7/10g (0·0·1·1·2·1·0·1·0·1) | 1/2g | 1/2g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.64 AI 41% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $21.82 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Sam Wood | CE | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/8g | 0/6g | 18% | — | — |
| 5 | Innes Senior | WG | 7 in 12g | 7/10g (1·0·1·0·2·0·1·0·1·1) | 2/10g | 2/6g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.67 AI 40% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $22.01 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Daejarn Asi | 5/8 | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/7g | 17% | — | — |
| 7 | Rowan Milnes | HB | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/5g | 22% | — | — |
| 8 | Taealoaloa Amone | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Liam Horne | HK | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/7g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Brad Singleton | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | George Lawler | 2R | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/4g | 0/7g | 4% | — | — |
| 12 | Alex Mellor | 2R | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 1/7g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Chris Atkin | LK | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Joe Westerman | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/18g | 0/5g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | George Griffin | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Sam Hall | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | George Hill | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |

**Hull KR** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arthur Mourgue | FB | 5 in 12g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 4/8g | 0/0g | 28% | — | 🏉 31' |
| 2 | Tom Davies | WG | 8 in 12g | 7/10g (1·1·1·1·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 4/12g | 0/0g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.02 AI 52% ✓ Scored | 🏉 24' 72' |
| 3 | Peta Hiku | CE | 5 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 2/3g | 0/0g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.73 AI 39% ✓ Scored | 🏉 69' |
| 4 | Jack Broadbent | CE | 7 in 13g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·2·1) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.94 AI 54% ✓ Scored | 🏉 3' 78' |
| 5 | Noah Booth | WG | 2 in 3g | 2/3g (1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.89 AI 55% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $16.47 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 9' 65' |
| 6 | Mikey Lewis | 5/8 | 14 in 12g | 13/10g (1·2·3·0·1·0·1·1·2·2) | 3/8g | 0/0g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.38 AI 68% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.82 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Tyrone May | HB | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 2/5g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 8 | Sauaso Sue | PR | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 9 | Jez Litten | HK | 4 in 14g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 10 | Dean Hadley | PR | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/17g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Jai Whitbread | 2R | 4 in 14g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 16% | — | 🏉 52' |
| 12 | James Batchelor | 2R | 5 in 13g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·2) | 1/9g | 0/0g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.69 AI 40% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Elliot Minchella | LK | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/7g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Luckley | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Kelepi Tanginoa | INT | 4 in 13g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/8g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| 16 | Jack Brown | INT | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Bill Leyland | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Castleford Tigers 1333 · Hull KR 1806 · ELO difference: 473 in favour of Hull KR

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Hull KR |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Hull KR |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Hull KR |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Hull KR |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Hull KR |

**Model Confidence: 78%** — Hull KR predicted to win by 11 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:14 UTC (latest tip update)