# Wakefield Trinity v Leigh Leopards — Super League Round 14 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wakefield Trinity 20 – 24 Leigh Leopards

_Leigh Leopards hunt down Wakefield Trinity in a tight one._

Half time: 12 – 18 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wakefield Trinity 47% / Leigh Leopards 53% · The Diy Kitchens Stadium · Sun, 15 June, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wakefield Trinity: Max Jowitt (8' Tipped ⚡), Oliver Pratt (37' Tipped ⚡), Corey Hall (63') · Leigh Leopards: David Armstrong (3' 1st Tipped 🎯), David Armstrong (22' 1st Tipped 🎯), Darnell McIntosh (33'), Joe Ofahengaue (73')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | 53% | Won |
| Wakefield Trinity | 47% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.8 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wakefield Trinity vs Leigh Leopards Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 14 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:14 pm_

Wakefield Trinity 20–24 Leigh Leopards in Super League Round 14 at The Diy Kitchens Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Wakefield Trinity played the tidier game. Leigh Leopards played the more dangerous one. At The Diy Kitchens Stadium, dangerous won out, 24-20.

The contrast was there in the numbers before you even got to the scoreboard. Wakefield held the ball better, just 9 errors to Leigh's 12, and actually won the collision stats, with 32 tackle busts to Leigh's 24. But Leigh ran for 1,118 metres to Wakefield's 941, and broke the line seven times to Wakefield's one. You can be as careful as you like with the ball. If the other side is slicing you open at will, careful only gets you so far.

David Armstrong made that point early, scoring inside three minutes to put Leigh 4-0 up, then again on 22 minutes to push the margin to 6-10 after Wakefield had briefly nudged ahead through Max Jowitt. Ben McNamara kept the boot busy either side of that second Armstrong try, and by the time Darnell McIntosh crossed in the 33rd minute, Leigh had turned one clean break too many into a 6-18 lead. Oliver Pratt's try just before the break got Wakefield to 12-18 at half-time, but they were chasing a scoreline built on gaps Leigh kept finding and Wakefield couldn't.

The third quarter belonged to Wakefield, at least for a spell. Jowitt's penalty goal and then Corey Hall's try either side of the hour mark levelled it at 18-18, and Jowitt's conversion had Wakefield in front 20-18 with a bit over quarter of an hour left. For a few minutes it looked like all that tackle-bust pressure was finally going to count for something. It didn't last. Joe Ofahengaue crossed in the 73rd minute and McNamara's conversion two minutes later settled it at 24-20, and that's how it stayed.

The line-break gap tells most of the story. Seven to one is not a stat you claw back with discipline alone, and Wakefield's discipline was actually the better of the two, conceding 7 penalties to Leigh's 9. It just didn't matter when Leigh's halves were doing what the pre-match ratings said they'd do: Leigh went into this with a halves rating of 1268 against Wakefield's 901, the single biggest gap on the sheet, and it showed up exactly where you'd expect, in the ambition and precision of their attacking shape.

Wakefield's form line coming in read three wins from five with an average margin of plus-21.6, hardly the profile of a side that loses fights like this. Leigh's was three from five too, but with a wafer-thin average margin of 1.2, the profile of a team that lives in tight finishes. This was another one.

Alphr's model had Leigh as 53% favourites and picked the margin at 5.8 points against an actual 4. The projected total of 47 landed within 3 of the real 44. Not a bad night for the model, even if the scoreboard took its time getting there.

**Key Match Stats**

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 941 | Run metres | **1,118** |
| 1 | Line breaks | **7** |
| **32** | Tackle busts | 24 |
| 7 | Offloads | **9** |
| **9** | Errors | 12 |
| **7** | Penalties conceded | 9 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 4 |
| 4/4 | Goals | 4/6 |
| 7 | Penalties Conceded | 9 |
| 9 | Errors | 12 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leigh Leopards to win at 53% probability. The predicted margin of 5.8 was reasonable against the actual 4-point result. Total score prediction of 47 was close to the actual 44, within 3 points. The model went 6/15 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (37/100) — penalties Wakefield Trinity 7 · Leigh Leopards 9.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leigh Leopards to win — model probability 53.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wakefield Trinity — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Leigh Leopards 1-12 — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Wakefield Trinity by 6 · Predicted total: 47

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Wakefield Trinity and Leigh Leopards. The model can't split them, landing on Leigh Leopards at 53%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leigh Leopards sit 21 ELO points clear, 1547 to 1526.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Wakefield Trinity by 5.8, with the two sides combining for about 47. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 36.4pts | Avg Score | 24.4pts |
| 14.8pts | Avg Conceded | 23.2pts |
| 21.6pts | Avg Margin | 1.2pts |
| 1229.6m | Run Metres | 1254.4m |
| 7.0 | Clean Breaks | 6.0 |
| 263.8 | Tackles | 296.6 |
| 7.2 | Errors | 7.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wakefield Trinity | R9 L · R10 W · R11 W · R12 W · R13 L | 36.4 |
| Leigh Leopards | R9 W · R10 W · R11 L · R12 L · R13 W | 24.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wakefield Trinity lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | EF | Wakefield Trinity | 26 – 16 | Leigh Leopards | Leigh Leopards 56% ✗ |
| 2026 | R27 | Leigh Leopards | 8 – 19 | Wakefield Trinity | Leigh Leopards 62% ✗ |
| 2026 | R5 | Wakefield Trinity | 18 – 14 | Leigh Leopards | Wakefield Trinity 66% ✓ |
| 2025 | EF | Leigh Leopards | 26 – 10 | Wakefield Trinity | not priced |
| 2025 | R6 | Leigh Leopards | 14 – 40 | Wakefield Trinity | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 3 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wakefield Trinity's best path is the middle: Super League's 3rd-ranked middle attack (2.46 tries/game) runs at a Leigh Leopards defence ranked 6th there (1.38 conceded/game). Key man: Jowitt, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Leigh Leopards' best path is the left edge: Super League's 3rd-ranked left edge attack (1.31 tries/game) runs at a Wakefield Trinity defence ranked 6th there (0.92 conceded/game). Key man: Hanley, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wakefield Trinity | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.54/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 0.92/g (def 6th) | 1.31/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.85/g (def 5th) |
| Middle | 2.46/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.85/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.23/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.38/g (def 6th) |
| Right | 0.92/g (att 7th) · concedes 0.85/g (def 8th) | 1/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.69/g (def 5th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 5th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 5th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 3 | 7 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 2.2/g |
| Run Metres | 96m/g | 147m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.8/g | 3.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.7% | 86.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 7th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 5th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 19 · 24 | 22 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 434m/g | 574m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11.7/g | 18.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.9/g | 2.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.8% | 83.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 16 · 2 | 14 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 342m/g | 381m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.9/g | 7.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.4/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 95.5% | 94.7% |

**Who scores on Leigh Leopards** — Halfbacks 0.19/g (lg 0.15) +27% · Five-Eighths 0.2/g (lg 0.18) +11% · Props 0.13/g (lg 0.12) +8%
**Who scores on Wakefield Trinity** — Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.15) +67% · Wingers 1.28/g (lg 0.87) +47% · Hookers 0.13/g (lg 0.09) +44%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Diy Kitchens Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wakefield Trinity** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Jowitt | FB | 8 in 10g | 8/10g (2·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·1·2) | 1/2g | 2/5g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.91 AI 55% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $16.61 AI 15% ✗ Not first | 🏉 8' |
| 2 | Matty Russell | WG | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 32% | — | — |
| 3 | Corey Hall | CE | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/6g | 12% | — | 🏉 63' |
| 4 | Oliver Pratt | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.72 AI 28% ✓ Scored | 🏉 37' |
| 5 | Tom Johnstone | WG | 5 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 6/7g | 2/6g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.01 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Mason Lino | 5/8 | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 1/6g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Jake Trueman | HB | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Mike McMeeken | PR | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 5/7g | 1/6g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Liam Hood | HK | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 0/4g | 22% | — | — |
| 10 | Isaiah Vagana | PR | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/5g | 9% | — | — |
| 11 | Jack Croft | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Josh Griffin | 2R | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0) | 1/5g | 2/3g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.15 AI 49% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $18.35 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Jay Pitts | LK | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 1/6g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Josh Rourke | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/3g | 1/4g | 26% | — | — |
| 15 | Harvey Smith | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/5g | 9% | — | — |
| 16 | Mathieu Cozza | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Caius Faatili | INT | 6 in 13g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·2·2·0) | 0/1g | 4/6g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 66% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.38 AI 20% ✗ Not first | — |

**Leigh Leopards** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Armstrong | FB | 4 in 8g | 4/8g (0·1·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.70 AI 28% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $29.28 AI 11% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 3' 22' |
| 2 | Darnell Mcintosh | WG | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 8/12g | 0/0g | 20% | — | 🏉 33' |
| 3 | Tesi Niu | CE | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 29% | — | — |
| 4 | Umyla Hanley | CE | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·0·0·3·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 0/0g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.88 AI 26% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Keanan Brand | WG | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 6 | Lachlan Lam | 5/8 | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/4g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Ben McNamara | HB | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Joe Ofahengaue | PR | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | 🏉 73' |
| 9 | Edwin Ipape | HK | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.83 AI 27% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $30.17 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 10 | Robbie Mulhern | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Frankie Halton | 2R | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Owen Trout | 2R | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/8g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Isaac Liu | LK | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 14 | Jack Hughes | INT | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Alec Tuitavake | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Matt Davis | INT | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Bailey Hodgson | INT | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Leigh Leopards hold the ELO advantage (1547 vs 1526), but the market favours Wakefield Trinity (@1.80). The model sides with ELO, Leigh Leopards predicted to win despite longer odds.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wakefield Trinity 1526 · Leigh Leopards 1547 · ELO difference: 21 in favour of Leigh Leopards

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Leigh Leopards |

**Model Confidence: 53%** — Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 47 pts

**Record:** 2/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/super-league/match/2025-r14-wakefield-trinity-v-leigh-leopards
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:14 UTC (latest tip update)