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Super League | Round 14

alphr.com.au

THE DIY KITCHENS STADIUM • SUNDAY 15 JUNE, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
WAK

Wakefield Trinity

2024
LEI

Leigh Leopards

✅ Model correct — backed Leigh Leopards at 53%

AI Win Probability

53%Leigh LeopardsFavourite

Wakefield Trinity

47%

Leigh Leopards

53%

AI Match Overview

This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Leigh Leopards a marginal 53% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees Leigh Leopards ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Halves Control and H2H History. Leigh Leopards carry a 21-point ELO rating advantage (1547 vs 1526). The margin model predicts Wakefield Trinity by 5.8 points with a combined total of 47.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Leigh Leopards to Win @2.25

Winner ✓

Edge

+8.9%

Line / Spread

Wakefield Trinity +5.8 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Wakefield Trinity 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Wakefield Trinity
R9L
R10W
R11W
R12W
R13L

older → newer

36.4
Leigh Leopards
R9W
R10W
R11L
R12L
R13W
24.4

Avg Conceded

14.8

Wakefield Trinity

23.2

Leigh Leopards

Avg Margin

21.6

Wakefield Trinity

1.2

Leigh Leopards

Run Metres

1230

Wakefield Trinity

1254

Leigh Leopards

Clean Breaks

7.0

Wakefield Trinity

6.0

Leigh Leopards

H2H History (Last 5)Leigh Leopards lead 3-2
Apr 2026WAK 18 - 14 LEI
Sep 2025WAK 10 - 26 LEI
Apr 2025WAK 40 - 14 LEI
Feb 2023WAK 4 - 30 LEI
Sep 2023WAK 19 - 20 LEI
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

ELO–Market Disagreement

Leigh Leopards hold the ELO advantage (1547 vs 1526), but the market favours Wakefield Trinity (@1.80).

The model sides with ELO, Leigh Leopards predicted to win despite longer odds.

📊Team ELO Ratings

WAK
1526Overall1547
LEI
ELO difference: -21 in favour of Leigh Leopards

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

982Forwards901
Best: 1204WAK +81Best: 1204
972Backs764
Best: 1087WAK +208Best: 839
901Halves1268
Best: 901LEI +367Best: 1268
605Hooker780
LEI +176

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WAK
Stat
LEI
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
36.4pts
Avg Score
24.4pts
14.8pts
Avg Conceded
23.2pts
21.6pts
Avg Margin
1.2pts
1229.6m
Run Metres
1254.4m
7.0
Clean Breaks
6.0
263.8
Tackles
296.6
7.2
Errors
7.6

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Leopards
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Trinity
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Trinity
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
5
Halves Control9.0%
Leopards
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
7
H2H History6.0%
Leopards

Model Confidence

53%

Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 6 points

Predicted total: 47 · Line: +5.8

2/4 match predictions correct