Salford Red Devils
St Helens
AI Win Probability
Salford Red Devils
48%
St Helens
52%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives St Helens a marginal 52% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees St Helens ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. St Helens carry a 346-point ELO rating advantage (1560 vs 1214). Recent form favours St Helens with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Salford Red Devils. The margin model predicts St Helens by 8.0 points with a combined total of 47.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
St Helens to Win @1.01
Winner ✓
Edge
-46.8%
Line / Spread
St Helens -8 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
St Helens 1-12 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 40.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Salford Red Devils | R9L R10L R11L R12L R13L older → newer | 7.6 |
St Helens | R9L R10L R11W R12W R13L | 22.4 |
Avg Conceded
49.6
Salford Red Devils
17.4
St Helens
Avg Margin
-42.0
Salford Red Devils
5.0
St Helens
Run Metres
732
Salford Red Devils
1076
St Helens
Clean Breaks
3.0
Salford Red Devils
5.2
St Helens
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
52%
St Helens predicted to win by 8 points
Predicted total: 47 · Line: -8.0