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Super League | Round 14

alphr.com.au

SALFORD COMMUNITY STADIUM • SUNDAY 15 JUNE, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
SAL

Salford Red Devils

446
STH

St Helens

✅ Model correct — backed St Helens at 52%

AI Win Probability

52%St HelensFavourite

Salford Red Devils

48%

St Helens

52%

AI Match Overview

This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives St Helens a marginal 52% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees St Helens ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. St Helens carry a 346-point ELO rating advantage (1560 vs 1214). Recent form favours St Helens with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Salford Red Devils. The margin model predicts St Helens by 8.0 points with a combined total of 47.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

St Helens to Win @1.01

Winner ✓

Edge

-46.8%

Line / Spread

St Helens -8 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

St Helens 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Salford Red Devils
R9L
R10L
R11L
R12L
R13L

older → newer

7.6
St Helens
R9L
R10L
R11W
R12W
R13L
22.4

Avg Conceded

49.6

Salford Red Devils

17.4

St Helens

Avg Margin

-42.0

Salford Red Devils

5.0

St Helens

Run Metres

732

Salford Red Devils

1076

St Helens

Clean Breaks

3.0

Salford Red Devils

5.2

St Helens

H2H History (Last 5)St Helens lead 3-2
Jun 2025SAL 0 - 58 STH
Mar 2025SAL 0 - 82 STH
Feb 2024SAL 24 - 20 STH
Aug 2024SAL 16 - 17 STH
Jun 2024SAL 20 - 18 STH
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

SAL
1214Overall1560
STH
ELO difference: -346 in favour of St Helens

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

824Forwards961
Best: 1000STH +137Best: 1252
840Backs690
Best: 1000SAL +150Best: 750
850Halves767
Best: 850SAL +83Best: 767
1000Hooker728
SAL +272

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

SAL
Stat
STH
0.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
7.6pts
Avg Score
22.4pts
49.6pts
Avg Conceded
17.4pts
-42.0pts
Avg Margin
5.0pts
731.8m
Run Metres
1075.8m
3.0
Clean Breaks
5.2
186.6
Tackles
274.4
5.8
Errors
9.6

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Helens
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Helens
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Devils
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Helens
5
Halves Control9.0%
Devils
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Helens
7
H2H History6.0%
Helens

Model Confidence

52%

St Helens predicted to win by 8 points

Predicted total: 47 · Line: -8.0

3/4 match predictions correct