# Salford Red Devils v St Helens — Super League Round 14 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Salford Red Devils 4 – 46 St Helens

_St Helens put Salford Red Devils to the sword._

Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Salford Red Devils 48% / St Helens 52% · Salford Community Stadium · Sun, 15 June, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Salford Red Devils: Sam Hill (79' Tipped ⚡) · St Helens: Curtis Sironen (2' 1st Tipped ⚡), Kyle Feldt (8' Tipped ⚡), Alex Walmsley (11'), Kyle Feldt (24' Tipped ⚡), Harry Robertson (53' Tipped ⚡), Kyle Feldt (59' Tipped ⚡), Harry Robertson (63' Tipped ⚡), Owen Dagnall (66' Tipped ⚡), Kyle Feldt (74' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | 52% | Won |
| Salford Red Devils | 48% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 8.0 predicted → 42 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Salford Red Devils vs St Helens Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 14 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:14 pm_

Salford Red Devils 4–46 St Helens in Super League Round 14 at Salford Community Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

St Helens led from the second minute and never gave Salford a sniff of the scoreboard. Curtis Sironen crossed inside two minutes, George Whitby's boot made it 0-6, and by the 13th minute, after Kyle Feldt and Alex Walmsley had both scored, it was already 0-16. Feldt struck again on 24 minutes for 0-20. Twenty minutes in, and the margin was already the kind of gap that doesn't get chased down.

Salford actually held St Helens scoreless for the next 29 minutes, but they didn't manage a point of their own either. It was a stalemate that changed nothing. Then St Helens turned it on again. Harry Robertson scored in the 53rd minute, Feldt in the 59th, Robertson again in the 63rd, Feldt's conversion made it 0-36 by the 64th, and Owen Dagnall crossed in the 66th for 0-40. Five tries in 13 minutes. Feldt added his fourth in the 74th minute and his own conversion took it to 0-46 before Sam Hill finally got Salford on the board in the 79th minute. Final score: Salford Red Devils 4, St Helens 46.

The stats explain the scoreline without much need for commentary. St Helens ran for 1,104 metres to Salford's 378, broke the line 10 times to 1, and busted 30 tackles to Salford's 11. That's not a contest Salford lost narrowly in the arm wrestle, it's one where they simply couldn't get their hands on the footy in dangerous positions. Oddly enough, Salford were the tidier side with ball in hand, coughing it up just 4 times to St Helens' 8, and gave away fewer penalties too, 6 to 3. None of it mattered. Discipline and possession count for little if you can't turn either into metres.

What makes the gap stranger is the positional ratings going in actually favoured Salford in three of four key areas: backs 840 to 690, halves 850 to 767, and hooker by a big margin, 1000 to 728. St Helens only rated higher up front, 961 to 824. On paper that's a genuine contest. On the night it wasn't close, because Salford's supposed edge in the backline and halves never turned into territory, line breaks or points. St Helens' forward dominance was the only rating that actually showed up on the field.

The form line was a better guide than the ratings. St Helens arrived averaging 22.4 points scored and 17.4 conceded across their last five games, with two wins in that stretch. Salford were the opposite: five straight losses, averaging 7.6 points scored and 49.6 conceded. Friday night didn't break that pattern, it just added another data point to it.

Alphr's model picked St Helens to win at 52 per cent, and got that right. The total score prediction of 47 was close, just 3 points under the actual 50. The margin was where the model came unstuck, tipping St Helens by 8 points when the real difference was 42.

**Key Match Stats**

| Salford Red Devils | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 378 | Run metres | **1,104** |
| 1 | Line breaks | **10** |
| 11 | Tackle busts | **30** |
| 2 | Offloads | **3** |
| **4** | Errors | 8 |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | **3** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Salford Red Devils | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Tries | 9 |
| 0/1 | Goals | 5/9 |
| 6 | Penalties Conceded | 3 |
| 4 | Errors | 8 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted St Helens to win at 52% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 8.0 but the actual margin was 42 points. Total score prediction of 47 was close to the actual 50, within 3 points. The model went 5/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (21/100) — penalties Salford Red Devils 6 · St Helens 3.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Helens to win — model probability 52.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** St Helens — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** St Helens 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: St Helens by 8 · Predicted total: 47

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Salford Red Devils and St Helens. The model can't split them, landing on St Helens at 52%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: St Helens sit 346 ELO points clear, 1560 to 1214. Form leans St Helens' way: 2 from their last 5, against 0 for Salford Red Devils.

St Helens own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has St Helens by 8.0, with the two sides combining for about 47. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Salford Red Devils | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 7.6pts | Avg Score | 22.4pts |
| 49.6pts | Avg Conceded | 17.4pts |
| -42.0pts | Avg Margin | 5.0pts |
| 731.8m | Run Metres | 1075.8m |
| 3.0 | Clean Breaks | 5.2 |
| 186.6 | Tackles | 274.4 |
| 5.8 | Errors | 9.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Salford Red Devils | R9 L · R10 L · R11 L · R12 L · R13 L | 7.6 |
| St Helens | R9 L · R10 L · R11 W · R12 W · R13 L | 22.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — St Helens lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R16 | St Helens | 58 – 0 | Salford Red Devils |
| 2025 | R1 | St Helens | 82 – 0 | Salford Red Devils |
| 2024 | — | St Helens | 20 – 24 | Salford Red Devils |
| 2024 | R21 | St Helens | 17 – 16 | Salford Red Devils |
| 2024 | R15 | Salford Red Devils | 20 – 18 | St Helens |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Salford Red Devils' best path is the right edge: Super League's 9th-ranked right edge attack (0.38 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 4th there (0.54 conceded/game). Key man: Watkins, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- St Helens' best path is the right edge: Super League's 4th-ranked right edge attack (1.23 tries/game) runs at a Salford Red Devils defence ranked 12th there (2.46 conceded/game). Key man: Robertson, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Salford Red Devils | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.31/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.38/g (def 11th (weak)) | 1.15/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.62/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 0.38/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 3/g (def 12th (weak)) | 2/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.69/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Right | 0.38/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 2.46/g (def 12th (weak)) | 1.23/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.54/g (def 4th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Salford Red Devils | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th (weak) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 12 | 12 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 110m/g | 187m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.6/g | 6.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.9% | 91.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Salford Red Devils | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 46 | 30 · 17 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 282m/g | 443m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.8/g | 17.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.4/g | 3.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.9% | 83.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Salford Red Devils | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 17 | 9 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 142m/g | 328m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.8/g | 9.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91% | 93.8% |

**Who scores on St Helens** — Centres 0.37/g (lg 0.38) -3% · Five-Eighths 0.16/g (lg 0.18) -11% · Wingers 0.69/g (lg 0.87) -21%
**Who scores on Salford Red Devils** — Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.04) +75% · 2nd Rows 0.43/g (lg 0.25) +72% · Five-Eighths 0.26/g (lg 0.18) +44%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Salford Community Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Salford Red Devils** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nathan Connell | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Jonny Vaughan | WG | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 15% | — | — |
| 3 | Chris Hankinson | CE | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 4 | Toby Warren | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Samuel Hill | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.20 AI 48% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $18.71 AI 25% ✗ Not first | 🏉 79' |
| 6 | Ryan Brierley | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Esan Marsters | HB | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/5g | 18% | — | — |
| 8 | Chris Hill | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Kai Morgan | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Jack Ormondroyd | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Shane Wright | 2R | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 12 | Matty Foster | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Shorrocks | LK | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 1/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Harvey Wilson | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/9g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 11% | — | — |
| 15 | Tiaki Chan | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Charlie Glover | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Justin Sangare | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/5g | 2% | — | — |

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tristan Sailor | FB | 9 in 13g | 5/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 4/1g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.22 AI 72% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Kyle Feldt | WG | 3 in 4g | 3/4g (1·1·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 75% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.93 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.61 AI 17% ✗ Not first | 🏉 8' 24' 59' 74' |
| 3 | Harry Robertson | CE | 6 in 8g | 6/8g (2·2·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 65% ✓ Scored | 🏉 53' 63' |
| 4 | Deon Cross | CE | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 24% | — | — |
| 5 | Owen Dagnall | WG | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.38 AI 45% ✓ Scored | 🏉 66' |
| 6 | Jonny Lomax | 5/8 | 2 in 11g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 7 | George Whitby | HB | 3 in 7g | 3/7g (0·0·0·0·3·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 75% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Alex Walmsley | PR | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 7/20g | 0/0g | 10% | — | 🏉 11' |
| 9 | Daryl Clark | HK | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/20g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 10 | Matty Lees | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Curtis Sironen | 2R | 4 in 12g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 3/8g | 0/0g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.72 AI 59% ✓ Scored | 🏉 2' |
| 12 | Matt Whitley | 2R | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0) | 6/18g | 0/0g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.24 AI 48% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Morgan Knowles | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Joe Batchelor | INT | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/8g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 15 | Moses Mbye | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | George Delaney | INT | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Noah Stephens | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Salford Red Devils 1214 · St Helens 1560 · ELO difference: 346 in favour of St Helens

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | St Helens |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | St Helens |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Salford Red Devils |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | St Helens |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Salford Red Devils |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | St Helens |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | St Helens |

**Model Confidence: 52%** — St Helens predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 47 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/super-league/match/2025-r14-salford-red-devils-v-st-helens
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:14 UTC (latest tip update)