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Super League | Round 14

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AMT HEADINGLEY STADIUM • SATURDAY 14 JUNE, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
LEE

Leeds Rhinos

3612
WAR

Warrington Wolves

✅ Model correct — backed Leeds Rhinos at 83%

AI Win Probability

83%Leeds RhinosFavourite

Leeds Rhinos

83%

Warrington Wolves

17%

AI Match Overview

Leeds Rhinos are clear favourites here at 83%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Warrington Wolves. The model sees Leeds Rhinos ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. Leeds Rhinos carry a 105-point ELO rating advantage (1612 vs 1507). Recent form favours Leeds Rhinos with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Warrington Wolves. The margin model predicts Leeds Rhinos by 13.1 points with a combined total of 38.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Leeds Rhinos to Win @1.40

Winner ✓

Edge

+11.7%

Line / Spread

Leeds Rhinos +13.1 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Leeds Rhinos 13-24 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Leeds Rhinos
R9L
R10W
R11W
R12W
R13W

older → newer

20.0
Warrington Wolves
R9W
R10L
R11L
R12L
R13W
21.6

Avg Conceded

12.8

Leeds Rhinos

27.0

Warrington Wolves

Avg Margin

7.2

Leeds Rhinos

-5.4

Warrington Wolves

Run Metres

1419

Leeds Rhinos

710

Warrington Wolves

Clean Breaks

4.4

Leeds Rhinos

4.2

Warrington Wolves

H2H History (Last 5)Warrington Wolves lead 4-1
Apr 2026LEE 26 - 22 WAR
Apr 2025LEE 14 - 16 WAR
Feb 2024LEE 8 - 34 WAR
Aug 2024LEE 6 - 24 WAR
Jul 2024LEE 18 - 30 WAR
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

LEE
1612Overall1507
WAR
ELO difference: +105 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

856Forwards886
Best: 1003WAR +30Best: 1072
969Backs1096
Best: 1093WAR +127Best: 1294
1082Halves1117
Best: 1082WAR +35Best: 1117
1192Hooker600
LEE +592

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

LEE
Stat
WAR
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
20.0pts
Avg Score
21.6pts
12.8pts
Avg Conceded
27.0pts
7.2pts
Avg Margin
-5.4pts
1419.2m
Run Metres
710.0m
4.4
Clean Breaks
4.2
317.4
Tackles
235.4
9.8
Errors
5.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Rhinos
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Rhinos
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Wolves
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Rhinos
5
Halves Control9.0%
Wolves
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Rhinos
7
H2H History6.0%
Wolves

Model Confidence

83%

Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 13 points

Predicted total: 38 · Line: +13.1

3/4 match predictions correct