# Leeds Rhinos v Warrington Wolves — Super League Round 14 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Leeds Rhinos 36 – 12 Warrington Wolves

_Leeds Rhinos trample Warrington Wolves._

Half time: 8 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Leeds Rhinos 83% / Warrington Wolves 17% · AMT Headingley Stadium · Sat, 14 June, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Leeds Rhinos: Cameron Smith (33' 1st), Cameron Smith (43' 1st), Brodie Croft (45'), Tom Holroyd (52'), Jake Connor (61'), Morgan Gannon (78') · Warrington Wolves: Josh Thewlis (49' Tipped ⚡), Ben Currie (73')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | 83% | Won |
| Warrington Wolves | 17% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 13.1 predicted → 24 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Leeds Rhinos vs Warrington Wolves Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 14 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:13 pm_

Leeds Rhinos 36–12 Warrington Wolves in Super League Round 14 at AMT Headingley Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Leeds Rhinos beat Warrington Wolves 36-12 at AMT Headingley Stadium, and even that scoreline undersells how one-sided it was. Run metres tell the real story: 1,366 to 771. Warrington were competitive on the sheet in a couple of spots, but when a side gets outrun by nearly 600 metres, 24 points is about right.

It didn't look like a rout early. The match was scoreless until the 33rd minute, when Cameron Smith crossed for the game's first try. Jake Connor's conversion and a penalty goal had it 8-0 by half-time, tight enough on the board but already lopsided underneath, Leeds building line breaks and field position while Warrington had nothing to show for it.

Then came the burst that decided it. Smith scored again in the 43rd minute, Brodie Croft followed two minutes later, and by the 46th minute Leeds led 20-0. Three tries in thirteen minutes, the kind of spell that turns a contest into a procession. Warrington finally got on the board through Josh Thewlis in the 49th, but Tom Holroyd and then Connor himself replied for Leeds, and by the 61st minute it was 30-6. Ben Currie's try in the 73rd was little more than a consolation, and Morgan Gannon's late score in the 78th put the gloss on it.

The underlying numbers back up what the timeline shows. Leeds had 9 line breaks to Warrington's 2, and busted 35 tackles to 19. Offloads went 16 to 4. That's not a team edging a contest, that's a team that had the ball doing whatever it wanted against a defence that couldn't get its footing. Errors were close, 10 to 11, and penalties conceded were level at 2 apiece, so this wasn't won on discipline or ill-discipline from the other side. It was won with the ball in hand.

That's a touch surprising given the positional read coming in. Warrington rated ahead in forwards, 886 to 856, backs, 1096 to 969, and halves, 1117 to 1082. On paper this should have been closer, or at least a arm-wrestle up front. Instead Leeds's hooker rating, 1192 against Warrington's 600, looks like it told the truth: go-forward and ruck speed won the day, not the raw positional grades.

Form lines pointed the right way for Leeds regardless. They came in on a four-game winning streak inside their last five, averaging 1,419.2 run metres a game against Warrington's 710, and conceding just 12.8 points on average compared to Warrington's 27. Warrington's recent form, WLLLW, an average margin of minus 5.4, matched a side that had been leaking points, and they leaked them again here.

Alphr's model backed Leeds at 83 percent, rating them 1612 to Warrington's 1507 and pegging the margin at 13.1. The actual gap was 24, so the pick was right and the lean was right, but the size of the beating was underdone. Two from fifteen on this one is a rough night for the model, though the margin band from 13 to 24 did land. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Key Match Stats**

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| **1,366** | Run metres | 771 |
| **9** | Line breaks | 2 |
| **35** | Tackle busts | 19 |
| **16** | Offloads | 4 |
| **10** | Errors | 11 |
| 2 | Penalties conceded | 2 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 2 |
| 6/7 | Goals | 2/2 |
| 2 | Penalties Conceded | 2 |
| 10 | Errors | 11 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leeds Rhinos to win at 83% probability. The predicted margin of 13.1 was reasonable against the actual 24-point result. Leeds Rhinos led 8–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 24. The model went 2/15 on this match. The 13-24 margin band call landed.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (0/100) — penalties Leeds Rhinos 2 · Warrington Wolves 2.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leeds Rhinos to win — model probability 83.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Leeds Rhinos — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Leeds Rhinos 13-24 — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Leeds Rhinos by 13 · Predicted total: 38

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Leeds Rhinos here: 83% to see off Warrington Wolves. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leeds Rhinos sit 105 ELO points clear, 1612 to 1507. Form leans Leeds Rhinos' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Warrington Wolves.

On paper Warrington Wolves shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The model still sides with Leeds Rhinos, which says ELO Difference and Recent Win Rate carry the most weight. The margin model has Leeds Rhinos by 13.1, with the two sides combining for about 38. Leeds Rhinos to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 20.0pts | Avg Score | 21.6pts |
| 12.8pts | Avg Conceded | 27.0pts |
| 7.2pts | Avg Margin | -5.4pts |
| 1419.2m | Run Metres | 710.0m |
| 4.4 | Clean Breaks | 4.2 |
| 317.4 | Tackles | 235.4 |
| 9.8 | Errors | 5.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | R9 L · R10 W · R11 W · R12 W · R13 W | 20.0 |
| Warrington Wolves | R9 W · R10 L · R11 L · R12 L · R13 W | 21.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Warrington Wolves lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | SF | Leeds Rhinos | 12 – 14 | Warrington Wolves | Leeds Rhinos 58% ✗ |
| 2026 | R15 | Warrington Wolves | 6 – 34 | Leeds Rhinos | Leeds Rhinos 71% ✓ |
| 2026 | R6 | Leeds Rhinos | 26 – 22 | Warrington Wolves | Leeds Rhinos 74% ✓ |
| 2025 | R6 | Warrington Wolves | 16 – 14 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Leeds Rhinos | 8 – 34 | Warrington Wolves | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 3 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Leeds Rhinos' best path is the right edge: Super League's 1st-ranked right edge attack (1.54 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 10th there (1.15 conceded/game). Key man: Lumb, 9 tries in that channel this season.
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the left edge: Super League's 4th-ranked left edge attack (1.23 tries/game) runs at a Leeds Rhinos defence ranked 2nd there (0.62 conceded/game). Key man: Ashton, 9 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Leeds Rhinos | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.85/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.62/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.23/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.31/g (def 9th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.08/g (att 7th) · concedes 0.77/g (def 4th (strong)) | 0.46/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.54/g (def 8th) |
| Right | 1.54/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.46/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1/g (att 5th) · concedes 1.15/g (def 10th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 9th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 4 | 3 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 1.2/g |
| Run Metres | 122m/g | 95m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.9/g | 2.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.2/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94.4% | 91.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 9th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 28 · 16 | 28 · 26 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 570m/g | 267m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 18/g | 7.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.3/g | 1.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.6% | 81% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 11th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 10th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 2 | 2 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 334m/g | 257m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6/g | 4.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.8% | 94.4% |

**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — 2nd Rows 0.33/g (lg 0.25) +32% · Props 0.14/g (lg 0.12) +17% · Halfbacks 0.17/g (lg 0.15) +13%
**Who scores on Leeds Rhinos** — Hookers 0.1/g (lg 0.09) +11% · Locks 0.04/g (lg 0.04) +0% · Centres 0.37/g (lg 0.38) -3%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at AMT Headingley Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Leeds Rhinos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lachlan Miller | FB | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 4/18g | 28% | — | — |
| 2 | Riley Lumb | WG | 9 in 13g | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·1·1·0·1) | 1/1g | 5/8g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.78 AI 58% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.71 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Harry Newman | CE | 5 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1) | 3/6g | 7/18g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.52 AI 43% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Ash Handley | CE | 4 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 8/18g | 10/15g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.69 AI 28% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Ryan Hall | WG | 6 in 11g | 6/10g (1·1·0·1·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 10/16g | 4/8g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.08 AI 51% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.80 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Brodie Croft | 5/8 | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 6/17g | 14% | — | 🏉 45' |
| 7 | Jake Connor | HB | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/15g | 3/8g | 14% | — | 🏉 61' |
| 8 | Mikolaj Oledzki | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/16g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Jarrod O'Connor | HK | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 1/19g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Keenan Palasia | PR | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/7g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Morgan Gannon | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 78' |
| 12 | James Mcdonnell | 2R | 6 in 13g | 6/10g (0·0·1·4·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 3/19g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.68 AI 40% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Kallum Watkins | LK | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 1/5g | 20% | — | — |
| 14 | Cam Smith | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 33' 43' |
| 15 | Sam Lisone | INT | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/7g | 3/17g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.87 AI 37% ✗ No try | — |
| 16 | Tom Holroyd | INT | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/10g | 12% | — | 🏉 52' |
| 17 | James Bentley | INT | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 2/13g | 12% | — | — |

**Warrington Wolves** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Thewlis | FB | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/6g | 1/1g | 34% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 49' |
| 2 | Arron Lindop | WG | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (1·0·1·1·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.25 AI 32% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $26.08 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Toby King | CE | 4 in 6g | 7/10g (1·0·2·0·1·1·0·0·1·1) | 1/13g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.14 AI 34% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $25.32 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Rodrick Tai | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 5 | Connor Wrench | WG | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 34% | — | — |
| 6 | George Williams | 5/8 | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 10/21g | 1/1g | 34% | — | — |
| 7 | Marc Sneyd | HB | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/25g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | Luke Yates | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Sam Powell | HK | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/21g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Paul Vaughan | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Adam Holroyd | 2R | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Lachlan Fitzgibbon | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Ben Currie | LK | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/20g | 0/1g | 6% | — | 🏉 73' |
| 14 | James Harrison | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| 15 | Joe Philbin | INT | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Max Wood | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Jordy Crowther | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Leeds Rhinos 1612 · Warrington Wolves 1507 · ELO difference: 105 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Warrington Wolves |

**Model Confidence: 83%** — Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 13 points · Predicted total: 38 pts

**Record:** 2/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:13 UTC (latest tip update)