Hull
Castleford Tigers
AI Win Probability
Hull
67%
Castleford Tigers
33%
AI Match Overview
Hull are clear favourites here at 67%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Castleford Tigers. The model sees Hull ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. Hull carry a 183-point ELO rating advantage (1477 vs 1294). The margin model predicts Hull by 8.6 points with a combined total of 46.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Hull to Win @1.25
Lost ✗
Edge
-12.7%
Line / Spread
Hull +8.6 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Hull 1-12 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 40.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Hull | R9L R10L R11L R12W R13W older → newer | 19.6 |
Castleford Tigers | R9W R10L R11W R12L R13L | 23.2 |
Avg Conceded
15.6
Hull
24.6
Castleford Tigers
Avg Margin
4.0
Hull
-1.4
Castleford Tigers
Run Metres
1083
Hull
933
Castleford Tigers
Clean Breaks
4.0
Hull
3.6
Castleford Tigers
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
67%
Hull predicted to win by 9 points
Predicted total: 46 · Line: +8.6