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Super League | Round 14

alphr.com.au

MKM STADIUM • FRIDAY 13 JUNE, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
HUL

Hull

1422
CAS

Castleford Tigers

❌ Upset — model favoured Hull at 67%

AI Win Probability

67%HullFavourite

Hull

67%

Castleford Tigers

33%

AI Match Overview

Hull are clear favourites here at 67%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Castleford Tigers. The model sees Hull ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. Hull carry a 183-point ELO rating advantage (1477 vs 1294). The margin model predicts Hull by 8.6 points with a combined total of 46.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Hull to Win @1.25

Lost ✗

Edge

-12.7%

Line / Spread

Hull +8.6 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Hull 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Hull
R9L
R10L
R11L
R12W
R13W

older → newer

19.6
Castleford Tigers
R9W
R10L
R11W
R12L
R13L
23.2

Avg Conceded

15.6

Hull

24.6

Castleford Tigers

Avg Margin

4.0

Hull

-1.4

Castleford Tigers

Run Metres

1083

Hull

933

Castleford Tigers

Clean Breaks

4.0

Hull

3.6

Castleford Tigers

H2H History (Last 5)Castleford Tigers lead 3-2
May 2026HUL 50 - 10 CAS
Apr 2025HUL 24 - 14 CAS
Feb 2024HUL 22 - 30 CAS
Aug 2024HUL 20 - 39 CAS
Sep 2023HUL 12 - 29 CAS
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

HUL
1477Overall1294
CAS
ELO difference: +183 in favour of Hull

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

874Forwards889
Best: 1228CAS +15Best: 1124
825Backs791
Best: 951HUL +34Best: 918
936Halves871
Best: 936HUL +65Best: 871
637Hooker646
Even

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HUL
Stat
CAS
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
19.6pts
Avg Score
23.2pts
15.6pts
Avg Conceded
24.6pts
4.0pts
Avg Margin
-1.4pts
1082.6m
Run Metres
933.0m
4.0
Clean Breaks
3.6
302.8
Tackles
259.0
10.4
Errors
6.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Hull
2
Forward Pack12.0%
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Hull
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
5
Halves Control9.0%
Hull
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Tigers
7
H2H History6.0%
Tigers

Model Confidence

67%

Hull predicted to win by 9 points

Predicted total: 46 · Line: +8.6

0/4 match predictions correct