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Super League | Round 14

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SEWELL GROUP CRAVEN PARK • FRIDAY 13 JUNE, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
HKR

Hull KR

686
CAT

Catalans Dragons

✅ Model correct — backed Hull KR at 82%

AI Win Probability

82%Hull KRFavourite

Hull KR

82%

Catalans Dragons

18%

AI Match Overview

Hull KR are clear favourites here at 82%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Catalans Dragons. The model sees Hull KR ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. Hull KR carry a 408-point ELO rating advantage (1795 vs 1387). Recent form favours Hull KR with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Catalans Dragons. The margin model predicts Hull KR by 18.3 points with a combined total of 45.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Hull KR to Win @1.13

Winner ✓

Edge

-6.6%

Line / Spread

Hull KR +18.3 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Hull KR 13-24 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Hull KR
R9W
R10W
R11W
R12W
R13W

older → newer

34.6
Catalans Dragons
R9W
R10L
R11L
R12L
R13L
9.6

Avg Conceded

6.0

Hull KR

33.6

Catalans Dragons

Avg Margin

28.6

Hull KR

-24.0

Catalans Dragons

Run Metres

1311

Hull KR

636

Catalans Dragons

Clean Breaks

8.0

Hull KR

1.4

Catalans Dragons

H2H History (Last 5)Catalans Dragons lead 3-2
Apr 2026HKR 20 - 26 CAT
Jul 2025HKR 34 - 6 CAT
Aug 2024HKR 36 - 4 CAT
Jun 2024HKR 14 - 15 CAT
Apr 2024HKR 6 - 36 CAT
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

HKR
1795Overall1387
CAT
ELO difference: +408 in favour of Hull KR

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

757Forwards947
Best: 958CAT +189Best: 1149
899Backs733
Best: 1069HKR +165Best: 822
900Halves1000
Best: 900CAT +100Best: 1000
959Hooker703
HKR +256

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HKR
Stat
CAT
5.0
Wins (Last 5)
1.0
34.6pts
Avg Score
9.6pts
6.0pts
Avg Conceded
33.6pts
28.6pts
Avg Margin
-24.0pts
1310.8m
Run Metres
636.0m
8.0
Clean Breaks
1.4
291.0
Tackles
217.4
10.0
Errors
7.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
KR
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Dragons
3
Backline Quality10.0%
KR
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
KR
5
Halves Control9.0%
Dragons
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
KR
7
H2H History6.0%
Dragons

Model Confidence

82%

Hull KR predicted to win by 18 points

Predicted total: 45 · Line: +18.3

3/4 match predictions correct