# Hull KR v Catalans Dragons — Super League Round 14 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hull KR 68 – 6 Catalans Dragons

_Hull KR run riot over Catalans Dragons._

Half time: 38 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hull KR 82% / Catalans Dragons 18% · Sewell Group Craven Park · Fri, 13 June, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Hull KR: Tom Davies (13' 1st), James Batchelor (16' Tipped ⚡), Sauaso Sue (21'), Kelepi Tanginoa (27' Tipped ⚡), Jack Broadbent (32' Tipped ⚡), James Batchelor (35' Tipped ⚡), Mikey Lewis (38' Tipped ⚡), Sauaso Sue (46'), Mikey Lewis (64' Tipped ⚡), Noah Booth (71' Tipped ⚡), Jai Whitbread (76'), Tyrone May (78' Tipped ⚡) · Catalans Dragons: Luke Keary (60')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | 82% | Won |
| Catalans Dragons | 18% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 18.3 predicted → 62 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hull KR vs Catalans Dragons Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 14 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:13 pm_

Hull KR 68–6 Catalans Dragons in Super League Round 14 at Sewell Group Craven Park. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Thirteen minutes in, Tom Davies scored. By the 39th, it was 38-0. Whatever Catalans Dragons had planned for this one, it lasted about as long as it took Hull KR to find their line the first time.

The final score, 68-6, barely needed the second half to be decided, though Hull KR added another 30 points to it anyway. Seven tries arrived before the break: Davies, James Batchelor twice, Sauaso Sue, Kelepi Tanginoa, Jack Broadbent and Mikey Lewis all crossed inside 39 minutes, with Arthur Mourgue slotting six conversions in a row to make it 38-0 at half-time. Catalans didn't get on the board until Luke Keary's try in the 60th minute, by which point Hull KR were already at 44.

The gap between the two packs pre-match, 757 to 947 in Catalans' favour on paper, told you nothing about how this would play out. Hull KR ran for 1,448 metres to Catalans' 561, and it wasn't close in the collisions either: 50 tackle busts to 21, 20 line breaks to a single one from the visitors. When a team's forward rating is meant to be the edge and they're getting cut in half at the advantage line, the ratings sheet stops mattering.

Catalans were, if anything, the tidier side with ball in hand, just 7 errors to Hull KR's 8, and they gave away only 4 penalties to Hull KR's zero. None of it counted for much when your opponent is scoring at will. Discipline and possession are only useful if you can turn them into points, and Catalans managed one try all night.

Mikey Lewis finished with a double, either side of Catalans' lone response, and Sauaso Sue also crossed twice. By the time Noah Booth, Jai Whitbread and Tyrone May all found the line in the last 15 minutes, Hull KR were simply cleaning up. Ten different players got over for Hull KR across the 80 minutes, which says less about any one performance and more about how comprehensively the game had gotten away from Catalans by half-time.

Form lines pointed this way before kick-off. Hull KR arrived on five straight wins, averaging 34.6 points a game and conceding just 6. Catalans had lost four of their last five, shipping an average of 33.6 points a match. Put those two trends in the same fixture and this is roughly the shape you'd expect, even if nobody had 68-6 pencilled in.

Alphr's model backed Hull KR at 82% and got the winner right without much trouble. The margin was a different story: 18.3 points predicted, 62 delivered, and a total of 45 that undershot the real figure of 74 by 29. Call it 7 from 15 on this one. The favourite was never in doubt. How far they'd run away with it was another matter entirely.

**Key Match Stats**

| Hull KR | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| **1,448** | Run metres | 561 |
| **20** | Line breaks | 1 |
| **50** | Tackle busts | 21 |
| **16** | Offloads | 8 |
| 8 | Errors | **7** |
| **0** | Penalties conceded | 4 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Hull KR | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Tries | 0 |
| 10/12 | Goals | 1/1 |
| 0 | Penalties Conceded | 4 |
| 8 | Errors | 7 |
| 0 | Sin Bins | 1 |
| 0 | Send Offs | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hull KR to win at 82% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 18.3 but the actual margin was 62 points. The game's 74 points came in 29 points higher than the predicted 45. Hull KR led 38–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 62. The model went 7/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (40/100) — penalties Hull KR 0 · Catalans Dragons 4.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull KR to win — model probability 81.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hull KR — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hull KR 13-24 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hull KR by 18 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Hull KR here: 82% to see off Catalans Dragons. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hull KR sit 408 ELO points clear, 1795 to 1387. Form leans Hull KR's way: 5 from their last 5, against 1 for Catalans Dragons.

Hull KR own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Hull KR by 18.3, with the two sides combining for about 45. Hull KR to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Hull KR | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 34.6pts | Avg Score | 9.6pts |
| 6.0pts | Avg Conceded | 33.6pts |
| 28.6pts | Avg Margin | -24.0pts |
| 1310.8m | Run Metres | 636.0m |
| 8.0 | Clean Breaks | 1.4 |
| 291.0 | Tackles | 217.4 |
| 10.0 | Errors | 7.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | R9 W · R10 W · R11 W · R12 W · R13 W | 34.6 |
| Catalans Dragons | R9 W · R10 L · R11 L · R12 L · R13 L | 9.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Hull KR lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R23 | Hull KR | 28 – 10 | Catalans Dragons | Hull KR 61% ✓ |
| 2026 | R5 | Catalans Dragons | 26 – 20 | Hull KR | Hull KR 52% ✗ |
| 2025 | R19 | Catalans Dragons | 6 – 34 | Hull KR | not priced |
| 2024 | R22 | Catalans Dragons | 4 – 36 | Hull KR | not priced |
| 2024 | R16 | Hull KR | 14 – 15 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Hull KR's best path is the middle: Super League's 2nd-ranked middle attack (2.46 tries/game) runs at a Catalans Dragons defence ranked 9th there (1.77 conceded/game). Key man: Lewis, 12 tries in that channel this season.
- Catalans Dragons' best path is the right edge: Super League's 9th-ranked right edge attack (0.38 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 1st there (0.46 conceded/game). Key man: Makinson, 3 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Hull KR | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.46/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.46/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.31/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 1.23/g (def 9th (weak)) |
| Middle | 2.46/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.54/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.69/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 1.77/g (def 9th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.31/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.46/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.38/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 0.62/g (def 5th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Hull KR | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 16 · 2 | 1 · 15 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 207m/g | 20m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.7/g | 0.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.7/g | 0.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.1% | 91.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Hull KR | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 10th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 5th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 37 · 13 | 11 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 561m/g | 378m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.1/g | 12.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.5/g | 1.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.2% | 88.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Hull KR | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 9th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 2 | 1 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 284m/g | 165m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.2/g | 2.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94.1% | 93.1% |

**Who scores on Catalans Dragons** — Locks 0.06/g (lg 0.04) +50% · Hookers 0.12/g (lg 0.09) +33% · Five-Eighths 0.22/g (lg 0.18) +22%
**Who scores on Hull KR** — 2nd Rows 0.24/g (lg 0.25) -4% · Fullbacks 0.17/g (lg 0.18) -6% · Props 0.11/g (lg 0.12) -8%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Sewell Group Craven Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hull KR** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arthur Mourgue | FB | 5 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 28% | — | — |
| 2 | Tom Davies | WG | 7 in 11g | 7/10g (1·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·2·0) | 2/3g | 3/9g | 46% | — | 🏉 13' |
| 3 | Peta Hiku | CE | 5 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·1) | 1/3g | 11/18g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.78 AI 39% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Jack Broadbent | CE | 6 in 12g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·2) | 3/5g | 8/13g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.17 AI 49% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $18.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 32' |
| 5 | Noah Booth | WG | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (1·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.75 AI 39% ✓ Scored | 🏉 71' |
| 6 | Tyrone May | 5/8 | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/3g | 5/19g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.43 AI 44% ✓ Scored | 🏉 78' |
| 7 | Mikey Lewis | HB | 12 in 11g | 12/10g (1·1·2·3·0·1·0·1·1·2) | 2/8g | 22/38g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.75 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.28 AI 24% ✗ Not first | 🏉 38' 64' |
| 8 | Sauaso Sue | PR | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 4/26g | 18% | — | 🏉 21' 46' |
| 9 | Jez Litten | HK | 4 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 6/43g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.23 AI 48% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | Dean Hadley | PR | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/16g | 1/35g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Jai Whitbread | 2R | 3 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 3/20g | 12% | — | 🏉 76' |
| 12 | James Batchelor | 2R | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 10/29g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.19 AI 49% ✓ Scored | 🏉 16' 35' |
| 13 | Elliot Minchella | LK | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/9g | 4/41g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Kelepi Tanginoa | INT | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/11g | 7/20g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.75 AI 39% ✓ Scored | 🏉 27' |
| 15 | Jack Brown | INT | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/8g | 1/15g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Eribe Doro | INT | 0 in 5g | 1/9g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 11% | — | — |
| 17 | Bill Leyland | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |

**Catalans Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guillermo Aispuro-bichet | FB | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| 2 | Tommy Makinson | WG | 3 in 9g | 5/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·3·0·0) | 8/7g | 3/2g | 46% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 21% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Matthieu Laguerre | CE | 4 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 21% | — | — |
| 4 | Reimis Smith | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Nick Cotric | WG | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 6 | Theo Fages | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Luke Keary | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 60' |
| 8 | Chris Satae | PR | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/3g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Alrix Da Costa | HK | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 1/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Julian Bousquet | PR | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/3g | 16% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 11 | Ben Garcia | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Arthur Romano | 2R | 0 in 9g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Oliver Partington | LK | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 1/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Tevita Pangai Junior | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Tariq Sims | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Bayley Sironen | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Franck Maria | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Hull KR 1795 · Catalans Dragons 1387 · ELO difference: 408 in favour of Hull KR

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Hull KR |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Hull KR |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Catalans Dragons |

**Model Confidence: 82%** — Hull KR predicted to win by 18 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:13 UTC (latest tip update)