# Hull FC v Castleford Tigers — Super League Round 14 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hull FC 14 – 22 Castleford Tigers

_Castleford Tigers pounce on Hull FC._

Half time: 6 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hull FC 67% / Castleford Tigers 33% · MKM Stadium · Fri, 13 June, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Hull FC: Harvey Barron (13' Tipped ⚡), Lewis Martin (74' Tipped ⚡), Lewis Martin (76' Tipped ⚡) · Castleford Tigers: Innes Senior (3' 1st Tipped 🎯), Louis Senior (22' Tipped ⚡), Daejarn Asi (55'), Tom Amone (71')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull FC | 67% | Lost |
| Castleford Tigers | 33% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 8.6 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hull FC vs Castleford Tigers Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 14 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:13 pm_

Hull FC 14–22 Castleford Tigers in Super League Round 14 at MKM Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Castleford Tigers held off Hull FC 22–14 at MKM Stadium. Castleford Tigers led 12–6 at half-time and held on.

Innes Senior opened the scoring; Hull FC crossed through Harvey Barron and Lewis Martin (2); Castleford Tigers scored through Innes Senior, Louis Senior, Daejarn Asi and Tom Amone.

**Model Report Card**

Castleford Tigers defied the model's 67% prediction for Hull FC, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 8.6 but the actual margin was 8 points. The model went 5/15 on this match.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull FC to win — model probability 67.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Hull FC — model probability 67.3% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Hull FC 1-12 — model probability 67.3% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hull FC by 9 · Predicted total: 46

### H2H History (Last 5) — Castleford Tigers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R23 | Hull FC | 14 – 18 | Castleford Tigers | Hull FC 56% ✗ |
| 2026 | R9 | Castleford Tigers | 10 – 50 | Hull FC | Castleford Tigers 60% ✗ |
| 2025 | R6 | Castleford Tigers | 14 – 24 | Hull FC | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Castleford Tigers | 30 – 22 | Hull FC | not priced |
| 2024 | R24 | Hull FC | 20 – 39 | Castleford Tigers | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 0 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Hull's best path is the right edge: Super League's 8th-ranked right edge attack (0.77 tries/game) runs at a Castleford Tigers defence ranked 11th there (1.31 conceded/game). Key man: Briscoe, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Castleford Tigers' best path is the left edge: Super League's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1.15 tries/game) runs at a Hull defence ranked 6th there (0.92 conceded/game). Key man: Senior, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Hull FC | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.08/g (att 7th) · concedes 0.92/g (def 6th) | 1.15/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.92/g (def 6th) |
| Middle | 1.38/g (att 5th) · concedes 1.46/g (def 7th) | 0.85/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.77/g (def 9th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.77/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.69/g (def 6th) | 0.31/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.31/g (def 11th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Hull FC | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 7th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 6 | 3 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 133m/g | 97m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5/g | 2.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.4% | 87.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Hull FC | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 9th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 10th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 22 · 25 | 17 · 32 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 372m/g | 367m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.9/g | 9.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.4/g | 1.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.8% | 82.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Hull FC | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 9th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 5 | 4 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 367m/g | 228m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.7/g | 4.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91% | 92.2% |

**Who scores on Castleford Tigers** — Locks 0.12/g (lg 0.04) +200% · Props 0.21/g (lg 0.12) +75% · Fullbacks 0.31/g (lg 0.18) +72%
**Who scores on Hull** — Fullbacks 0.28/g (lg 0.18) +56% · Hookers 0.13/g (lg 0.09) +44% · Five-Eighths 0.25/g (lg 0.18) +39%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MKM Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hull** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jordan Rapana | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Harvey Barron | WG | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 3/3g | 7/14g | 39% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.84 AI 38% ✓ Scored | 🏉 13' |
| 3 | Tom Briscoe | CE | 6 in 13g | 5/10g (0·0·1·2·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 10/21g | 2/12g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.27 AI 32% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Davy Litten | CE | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (1·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/8g | 21% | — | — |
| 5 | Lewis Martin | WG | 9 in 13g | 7/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·1·1·1·1) | 1/3g | 7/16g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.83 AI 57% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $16.03 AI 22% ✗ Not first | 🏉 74' 76' |
| 6 | Aidan Sezer | 5/8 | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/5g | 0/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Cade Cust | HB | 3 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/6g | 0/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Herman Ese'ese | PR | 7 in 13g | 7/10g (1·1·1·1·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 1/3g | 1/15g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 48% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $19.01 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 9 | Amir Bourouh | HK | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Liam Knight | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Zak Hardaker | 2R | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/17g | 1/6g | 12% | — | — |
| 12 | Ed Chamberlain | 2R | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/9g | 4% | — | — |
| 13 | Yusuf Aydin | LK | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/15g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Denive Balmforth | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/14g | 13% | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Eseh | INT | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 9% | — | — |
| 16 | Matty Laidlaw | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/12g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Jack Ashworth | INT | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 1/10g | 4% | — | — |

**Castleford Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zac Cini | FB | 4 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| 2 | Josh Simm | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.66 AI 40% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Louis Senior | CE | 1 in 3g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·1·2·1·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.24 AI 48% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $18.99 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 22' |
| 4 | Sam Wood | CE | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 2/11g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| 5 | Innes Senior | WG | 6 in 11g | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·0·2·0·1·0·1) | 3/9g | 2/3g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.26 AI 47% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $19.11 AI 14% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 3' |
| 6 | Rowan Milnes | 5/8 | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/8g | 3/3g | 22% | — | — |
| 7 | Daejarn Asi | HB | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 9% | — | 🏉 55' |
| 8 | Taealoaloa Amone | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Liam Horne | HK | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Brad Singleton | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/16g | 1/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | George Lawler | 2R | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/13g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 12 | Alex Mellor | 2R | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/16g | 0/5g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Chris Atkin | LK | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Joe Westerman | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | George Griffin | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Sam Hall | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | George Hill | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/super-league/match/2025-r14-hull-fc-v-castleford-tigers
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:13 UTC (latest tip update)