# Warrington Wolves v Castleford Tigers — Super League Round 13 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Warrington Wolves 34 – 24 Castleford Tigers

_Warrington Wolves hunt down Castleford Tigers._

Half time: 22 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Warrington Wolves 64% / Castleford Tigers 36% · Halliwell Jones Stadium · Fri, 30 May, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Warrington Wolves: Josh Thewlis (9' 1st Tipped 🎯), Jake Thewlis (14' Tipped ⚡), Rodrick Tai (19'), Arron Lindop (34' Tipped ⚡), Ben Currie (53'), Stefan Ratchford (73') · Castleford Tigers: George Lawler (29'), George Lawler (63'), Innes Senior (68' Tipped ⚡), Joshua Simm (79' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warrington Wolves | 64% | Won |
| Castleford Tigers | 36% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.7 predicted → 10 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Warrington Wolves vs Castleford Tigers Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 13 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:13 pm_

Warrington Wolves 34–24 Castleford Tigers in Super League Round 13 at Halliwell Jones Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Castleford Tigers scored four tries and still lost by ten, which tells you the areas where they actually held their own. Innes Senior and Joshua Simm crossed late, either side of the 68th and 79th minutes, and George Lawler grabbed two of his own. On another day that's a returning side. Here it just tidied up a scoreline that had gotten away from them long before.

The problem was ball control. Castleford coughed it up eight times to Warrington Wolves' three, and that gap is too big to paper over with four tries. They also gave away four penalties to Warrington's three. Add it up and you're handing the opposition both the ball and the field position to do damage with it.

Warrington Wolves did exactly that, running out 34-24 winners at Halliwell Jones Stadium. The story was set early. Josh Thewlis opened the scoring in the 9th minute, Jake Thewlis followed in the 14th, Rodrick Tai crossed in the 19th, and by the 35th minute, after Arron Lindop's try and Marc Sneyd's conversion, it was 22-6 at the break. George Lawler's try in between barely slowed anything down.

Castleford spent the second half chasing arithmetic more than the game itself. Ben Currie extended the lead to 28-6 in the 53rd minute, and even though Lawler, Senior and Simm all found the line after that, Stefan Ratchford's try and conversion in the 73rd and 74th minutes restored the buffer to 34-18 just when Castleford had started to sniff something. The final Simm try in the 79th minute was too late to matter.

The stat sheet backs up what the scoreboard already said. Warrington ran for 987 metres to Castleford's 823, busted 23 tackles to 14, and edged the line-break count 5 to 4. That's the sort of gap you'd expect given the pre-match numbers, with Warrington's halves rated at 1045 against Castleford's 741 and their forwards holding a smaller but real edge, 862 to 817. Castleford's backs were rated stronger, 815 to 783, and their own metres tally away from this game, 948 on average over their last five, suggests they can move the ball when it counts. They just didn't get enough of it here.

Recent form had these two heading in opposite directions, with Castleford's WLWL finish a touch healthier than Warrington's run of four losses in five. None of that showed up on the day. Warrington's average margin over that stretch was minus 8.2 points, and they turned in a plus 10 instead.

Alphr's model had Warrington as 64% favourites and predicted a win by 7.7 points, with a total of 42. The margin call was close, actual was 10. The total wasn't, with 58 points landing 16 higher than tipped. Points came from everywhere in this one, which the model's 8 from 15 mark on the night reflects fairly enough. The margin band, 1 to 12, was the one that stuck.

**Key Match Stats**

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| **987** | Run metres | 823 |
| **5** | Line breaks | 4 |
| **23** | Tackle busts | 14 |
| **5** | Offloads | 4 |
| **3** | Errors | 8 |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 4 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 4 |
| 4/5 | Goals | 4/4 |
| 3 | Penalties Conceded | 4 |
| 3 | Errors | 8 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Warrington Wolves to win at 64% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Warrington Wolves by 7.7 vs the actual margin of 10 points. The game's 58 points came in 16 points higher than the predicted 42. The model went 8/15 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (23/100) — penalties Warrington Wolves 3 · Castleford Tigers 4.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warrington Wolves to win — model probability 64.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Warrington Wolves — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Warrington Wolves 1-12 — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Warrington Wolves by 8 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Warrington Wolves are the call at 64%, but Castleford Tigers stay live at 36%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Warrington Wolves sit 185 ELO points clear, 1493 to 1309. Form leans Castleford Tigers' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Warrington Wolves.

Warrington Wolves own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. The margin model has Warrington Wolves by 7.7, with the two sides combining for about 42. Lean Warrington Wolves, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 17.6pts | Avg Score | 20.8pts |
| 25.8pts | Avg Conceded | 20.4pts |
| -8.2pts | Avg Margin | 0.4pts |
| 683.8m | Run Metres | 948.0m |
| 3.4 | Clean Breaks | 3.0 |
| 253.4 | Tackles | 252.0 |
| 6.0 | Errors | 5.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warrington Wolves | R8 L · R9 W · R10 L · R11 L · R12 L | 17.6 |
| Castleford Tigers | R8 L · R9 W · R10 L · R11 W · R12 L | 20.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Warrington Wolves lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R21 | Castleford Tigers | 18 – 48 | Warrington Wolves | Warrington Wolves 62% ✓ |
| 2026 | R5 | Warrington Wolves | 72 – 6 | Castleford Tigers | Warrington Wolves 73% ✓ |
| 2025 | R19 | Castleford Tigers | 20 – 14 | Warrington Wolves | not priced |
| 2024 | R23 | Castleford Tigers | 6 – 28 | Warrington Wolves | not priced |
| 2024 | R3 | Warrington Wolves | 30 – 8 | Castleford Tigers | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the right edge: Super League's 6th-ranked right edge attack (0.92 tries/game) runs at a Castleford Tigers defence ranked 10th there (1.25 conceded/game). Key man: King, 4 tries in that channel this season.
- Castleford Tigers' best path is the left edge: Super League's 6th-ranked left edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 9th there (1.17 conceded/game). Key man: Senior, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Warrington Wolves | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.25/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.17/g (def 9th (weak)) | 1/g (att 6th) · concedes 0.92/g (def 6th) |
| Middle | 0.42/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.58/g (def 7th) | 0.83/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 1.83/g (def 10th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.92/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.25/g (def 10th (weak)) | 0.33/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.25/g (def 10th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 7th |
| Defence rank | 9th (weak) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 7 | 3 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 100m/g | 84m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.2/g | 2.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.2% | 87.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th | 9th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 10th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 25 · 25 | 16 · 29 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 259m/g | 379m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.5/g | 9.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.7/g | 1.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80.4% | 82.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 10th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 11th (weak) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 11 | 2 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 248m/g | 232m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.8/g | 4.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94.5% | 91.9% |

**Who scores on Castleford Tigers** — Locks 0.11/g (lg 0.04) +175% · Fullbacks 0.32/g (lg 0.18) +78% · Props 0.21/g (lg 0.12) +75%
**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — Halfbacks 0.17/g (lg 0.14) +21% · 2nd Rows 0.3/g (lg 0.25) +20% · Props 0.14/g (lg 0.12) +17%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Halliwell Jones Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Warrington Wolves** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Dufty | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Josh Thewlis | WG | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/9g | 21/42g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.29 AI 32% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $26.39 AI 14% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 9' |
| 3 | Arron Lindop | CE | 5 in 9g | 5/9g (1·0·1·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/3g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.78 AI 39% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $22.77 AI 18% ✗ Not first | 🏉 34' |
| 4 | Rodrick Tai | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 19' |
| 5 | Jake Thewlis | WG | 3 in 6g | 3/7g (0·1·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.08 AI 35% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $24.89 AI 16% ✗ Not first | 🏉 14' |
| 6 | Marc Sneyd | 5/8 | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/23g | 2/8g | 6% | — | — |
| 7 | Stefan Ratchford | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 73' |
| 8 | Luke Yates | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 2/15g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Sam Powell | HK | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/19g | 3/22g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Paul Vaughan | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 4/28g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Adam Holroyd | 2R | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/18g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Lachlan Fitzgibbon | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Ben Currie | LK | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/23g | 13/58g | 2% | — | 🏉 53' |
| 14 | James Harrison | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 5/22g | 20% | — | — |
| 15 | Joe Philbin | INT | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/16g | 2/44g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Max Wood | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Benjamin Hartill | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Castleford Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tex Hoy | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Josh Simm | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 48% ✗ No try | 🏉 79' |
| 3 | Zac Cini | CE | 4 in 12g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| 4 | Louis Senior | CE | 1 in 2g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·2·1·0·1) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.66 AI 61% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.83 AI 19% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Innes Senior | WG | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·2·0·1·0) | 7/8g | 4/5g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 48% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $19.03 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 68' |
| 6 | Rowan Milnes | 5/8 | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 22% | — | — |
| 7 | Daejarn Asi | HB | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 8 | Brad Singleton | PR | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/18g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Chris Atkin | HK | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 1/7g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Daniel Okoro | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | George Lawler | 2R | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/6g | 0% | — | 🏉 29' 63' |
| 12 | Alex Mellor | 2R | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 2/12g | 2/5g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.14 AI 34% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Liam Horne | LK | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | George Griffin | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Hall | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | George Hill | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Hugo Salabio | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Warrington Wolves 1493 · Castleford Tigers 1309 · ELO difference: 185 in favour of Warrington Wolves

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Warrington Wolves |

**Model Confidence: 64%** — Warrington Wolves predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 2/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:13 UTC (latest tip update)