Warrington Wolves
Castleford Tigers
AI Win Probability
Warrington Wolves
64%
Castleford Tigers
36%
AI Match Overview
Warrington Wolves hold the advantage at 64% win probability, though Castleford Tigers are far from out of this at 36%. The model sees Warrington Wolves ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. Warrington Wolves carry a 185-point ELO rating advantage (1493 vs 1309). Recent form favours Castleford Tigers with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Warrington Wolves. The margin model predicts Warrington Wolves by 7.7 points with a combined total of 42.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Warrington Wolves to Win @1.42
Winner ✓
Edge
-6.3%
Line / Spread
Warrington Wolves +7.7 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Warrington Wolves 1-12 @3.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 40.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Warrington Wolves | R8L R9W R10L R11L R12L older → newer | 17.6 |
Castleford Tigers | R8L R9W R10L R11W R12L | 20.8 |
Avg Conceded
25.8
Warrington Wolves
20.4
Castleford Tigers
Avg Margin
-8.2
Warrington Wolves
0.4
Castleford Tigers
Run Metres
684
Warrington Wolves
948
Castleford Tigers
Clean Breaks
3.4
Warrington Wolves
3.0
Castleford Tigers
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
64%
Warrington Wolves predicted to win by 8 points
Predicted total: 42 · Line: +7.7