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Super League | Round 13

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SALFORD COMMUNITY STADIUM • FRIDAY 30 MAY, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
SAL

Salford Red Devils

646
WIG

Wigan Warriors

✅ Model correct — backed Wigan Warriors at 69%

AI Win Probability

69%Wigan WarriorsFavourite

Salford Red Devils

31%

Wigan Warriors

69%

AI Match Overview

Wigan Warriors are clear favourites here at 69%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Salford Red Devils. The model sees Wigan Warriors ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Wigan Warriors carry a 597-point ELO rating advantage (1814 vs 1218). Recent form favours Wigan Warriors with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Salford Red Devils. The margin model predicts Wigan Warriors by 12.0 points with a combined total of 46.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Wigan Warriors to Win @1.44

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Wigan Warriors -12 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Wigan Warriors 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Salford Red Devils
R8L
R9L
R10L
R11L
R12L

older → newer

8.4
Wigan Warriors
R8W
R9W
R10W
R11W
R12W
33.2

Avg Conceded

48.0

Salford Red Devils

14.8

Wigan Warriors

Avg Margin

-39.6

Salford Red Devils

18.4

Wigan Warriors

Run Metres

735

Salford Red Devils

1244

Wigan Warriors

Clean Breaks

3.2

Salford Red Devils

5.6

Wigan Warriors

H2H History (Last 5)Wigan Warriors lead 5-0
Apr 2025SAL 0 - 54 WIG
Feb 2024SAL 6 - 26 WIG
Feb 2024SAL 12 - 22 WIG
Sep 2024SAL 0 - 64 WIG
Aug 2023SAL 8 - 26 WIG
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

SAL
1218Overall1814
WIG
ELO difference: -597 in favour of Wigan Warriors

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

819Forwards903
Best: 1000WIG +83Best: 1203
769Backs967
Best: 882WIG +198Best: 1200
941Halves863
Best: 941SAL +78Best: 863
1000Hooker600
SAL +400

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

SAL
Stat
WIG
0.0
Wins (Last 5)
5.0
8.4pts
Avg Score
33.2pts
48.0pts
Avg Conceded
14.8pts
-39.6pts
Avg Margin
18.4pts
735.0m
Run Metres
1243.8m
3.2
Clean Breaks
5.6
205.4
Tackles
283.4
6.2
Errors
10.6

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Warriors
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Warriors
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Warriors
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Warriors
5
Halves Control9.0%
Devils
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Warriors
7
H2H History6.0%
Warriors

Model Confidence

69%

Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 12 points

Predicted total: 46 · Line: -12.0

3/4 match predictions correct