# Salford Red Devils v Wigan Warriors — Super League Round 13 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Salford Red Devils 6 – 46 Wigan Warriors

_Wigan Warriors march past Salford Red Devils._

Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Salford Red Devils 31% / Wigan Warriors 69% · Salford Community Stadium · Fri, 30 May, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Salford Red Devils: Nathan Connell (75') · Wigan Warriors: Jai Field (6' 1st Tipped 🎯), Jacob Douglas (15'), Jai Field (30' 1st Tipped 🎯), Jacob Douglas (35'), Zach Eckersley (49' Tipped ⚡), Adam Keighran (53' Tipped ⚡), Jacob Douglas (63'), Jack Farrimond (79')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | 69% | Won |
| Salford Red Devils | 31% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 12.0 predicted → 40 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Salford Red Devils vs Wigan Warriors Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 13 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:13 pm_

Salford Red Devils 6–46 Wigan Warriors in Super League Round 13 at Salford Community Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Wigan Warriors led 22-0 at half-time, and by full-time the only thing that had changed was the margin. Jai Field scored in the 6th minute, converted by Adam Keighran, then Jacob Douglas crossed in the 15th to make it 0-10. Field grabbed his second in the 30th, Douglas his second in the 35th, and Keighran's boot did the rest. Salford Red Devils hadn't troubled the scoreboard once in that opening 40, and the gap already looked settled.

The second half just kept adding to it. Zach Eckersley scored in the 49th minute, Keighran himself got over in the 53rd, and Douglas completed his hat-trick in the 63rd to push it out to 0-40. There was no real second-half fightback from Salford, just a long stretch of Wigan finishing what they'd started before the break.

Salford finally got on the board in the 75th minute through Nathan Connell, converted by Chris Hankinson, making it 6-40. Wigan had the last word anyway, Jack Farrimond scoring in the 79th minute and Keighran adding the extras to close it out at 46-6.

The stat sheet lines up with what the clock showed. Wigan ran for 1,333 metres to Salford's 608, more than double, and turned that go-forward into 10 line breaks against Salford's one. Wigan also busted 23 tackles to Salford's 16, which is really just the same story from a different angle: they kept finding space Salford couldn't close down.

Oddly enough, Salford were the tidier side with the ball. They coughed it up just 6 times to Wigan's 14 and conceded fewer penalties too, 5 to 3. None of it mattered much. You can look after the football and still lose by 40 points if you can't get out of your own half, and 608 metres for the night wasn't going to do that for Salford.

The form line coming in explains a fair chunk of this. Salford arrived on five straight losses, averaging 8.4 points scored and 48 conceded across that run, an average margin of minus 39.6. Wigan came in on five straight wins, averaging 33.2 points for and 14.8 against. Nothing about Friday night broke that pattern, it just confirmed it in full.

**Key Match Stats**

| Salford Red Devils | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 608 | Run metres | **1,333** |
| 1 | Line breaks | **10** |
| 16 | Tackle busts | **23** |
| 4 | Offloads | **6** |
| **6** | Errors | 14 |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | **3** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Salford Red Devils | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Tries | 8 |
| 1/1 | Goals | 7/8 |
| 5 | Penalties Conceded | 3 |
| 6 | Errors | 14 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wigan Warriors to win at 69% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 12.0 but the actual margin was 40 points. Total score prediction of 46 was close to the actual 52, within 6 points. The model went 5/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (17/100) — penalties Salford Red Devils 5 · Wigan Warriors 3.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wigan Warriors to win — model probability 69.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wigan Warriors — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Wigan Warriors 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Wigan Warriors by 12 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Wigan Warriors here: 69% to see off Salford Red Devils. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wigan Warriors sit 597 ELO points clear, 1814 to 1218. Form leans Wigan Warriors' way: 5 from their last 5, against 0 for Salford Red Devils.

Wigan Warriors own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Wigan Warriors by 12.0, with the two sides combining for about 46. Wigan Warriors to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Salford Red Devils | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 8.4pts | Avg Score | 33.2pts |
| 48.0pts | Avg Conceded | 14.8pts |
| -39.6pts | Avg Margin | 18.4pts |
| 735.0m | Run Metres | 1243.8m |
| 3.2 | Clean Breaks | 5.6 |
| 205.4 | Tackles | 283.4 |
| 6.2 | Errors | 10.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Salford Red Devils | R8 L · R9 L · R10 L · R11 L · R12 L | 8.4 |
| Wigan Warriors | R8 W · R9 W · R10 W · R11 W · R12 W | 33.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wigan Warriors lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R6 | Wigan Warriors | 54 – 0 | Salford Red Devils |
| 2024 | — | Salford Red Devils | 6 – 26 | Wigan Warriors |
| 2024 | — | Salford Red Devils | 12 – 22 | Wigan Warriors |
| 2024 | R27 | Wigan Warriors | 64 – 0 | Salford Red Devils |
| 2023 | R24 | Wigan Warriors | 26 – 8 | Salford Red Devils |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Salford Red Devils' best path is the right edge: Super League's 9th-ranked right edge attack (0.42 tries/game) runs at a Wigan Warriors defence ranked 4th there (0.58 conceded/game). Key man: Watkins, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Wigan Warriors' best path is the middle: Super League's 1st-ranked middle attack (2.92 tries/game) runs at a Salford Red Devils defence ranked 12th there (3 conceded/game). Key man: Field, 13 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Salford Red Devils | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.33/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 1.42/g (def 11th (weak)) | 1.75/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.75/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Middle | 0.42/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 3/g (def 12th (weak)) | 2.92/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.58/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Right | 0.42/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 2.33/g (def 12th (weak)) | 1.25/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.58/g (def 4th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Salford Red Devils | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 11 | 12 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 2.3/g |
| Run Metres | 111m/g | 148m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.8/g | 6.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.6% | 88.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Salford Red Devils | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 39 | 43 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 2.3/g |
| Run Metres | 288m/g | 529m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.2/g | 15.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.5/g | 4.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.7% | 83.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Salford Red Devils | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 5th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 17 | 9 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 140m/g | 381m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.3/g | 11/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.2% | 93.5% |

**Who scores on Wigan Warriors** — Locks 0.04/g (lg 0.04) +0% · 2nd Rows 0.19/g (lg 0.25) -24% · Props 0.07/g (lg 0.12) -42%
**Who scores on Salford Red Devils** — Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.04) +75% · 2nd Rows 0.43/g (lg 0.25) +72% · Five-Eighths 0.27/g (lg 0.18) +50%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Salford Community Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Salford Red Devils** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nathan Connell | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 75' |
| 2 | Samuel Hill | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.19 AI 33% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $25.67 AI 19% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Jonny Vaughan | CE | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 15% | — | — |
| 4 | Sam Stone | CE | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 5 | Chris Hankinson | WG | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 6 | Esan Marsters | 5/8 | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/4g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Ryan Brierley | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Joe Bullock | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Kai Morgan | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Jack Ormondroyd | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Joe Shorrocks | 2R | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 12 | Matty Foster | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Harvey Wilson | LK | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 13% | — | — |
| 14 | Toby Warren | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Tiaki Chan | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Justin Sangare | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Charlie Glover | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Wigan Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Field | FB | 13 in 11g | 13/10g (3·1·1·2·1·2·1·1·0·1) | 8/10g | 0/0g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.76 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.35 AI 19% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 6' 30' |
| 2 | Jacob Douglas | WG | 0 in 2g | 1/6g (0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 17% | — | 🏉 15' 35' 63' |
| 3 | Adam Keighran | CE | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 4/5g | 0/0g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.31 AI 46% ✓ Scored | 🏉 53' |
| 4 | Zach Eckersley | CE | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/3g | 0/0g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.63 AI 41% ✓ Scored | 🏉 49' |
| 5 | Liam Marshall | WG | 7 in 12g | 7/10g (1·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 9/16g | 0/0g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.21 AI 73% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.62 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Harry Smith | 5/8 | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/12g | 0/0g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.48 AI 43% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Jack Farrimond | HB | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 79' |
| 8 | Liam Byrne | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Brad O'Neill | HK | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Tyler Dupree | PR | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Joseph Havard | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Junior Nsemba | 2R | 5 in 12g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·2·0·1·1) | 2/6g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.00 AI 79% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.08 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Kaide Ellis | LK | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Bevan French | INT | 9 in 12g | 8/10g (1·1·1·1·0·0·2·1·0·1) | 13/12g | 0/0g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.73 AI 86% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.10 AI 20% ✗ Not first | — |
| 15 | Patrick Mago | INT | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| 16 | Harvie Hill | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Kian Mcdermott | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Salford Red Devils 1218 · Wigan Warriors 1814 · ELO difference: 597 in favour of Wigan Warriors

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Salford Red Devils |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Wigan Warriors |

**Model Confidence: 69%** — Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 12 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:13 UTC (latest tip update)