# Leeds Rhinos v Wakefield Trinity — Super League Round 13 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Leeds Rhinos 22 – 18 Wakefield Trinity

_Leeds Rhinos stampede past a gallant Wakefield Trinity._

Half time: 22 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Leeds Rhinos 63% / Wakefield Trinity 37% · AMT Headingley Stadium · Sat, 31 May, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Leeds Rhinos: Harry Newman (8' 1st Tipped ⚡), Jake Connor (21'), Riley Lumb (32' Tipped ⚡) · Wakefield Trinity: Lachlan Walmsley (24' Tipped ⚡), Max Jowitt (49' Tipped ⚡), Max Jowitt (64' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | 63% | Won |
| Wakefield Trinity | 37% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.0 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Leeds Rhinos vs Wakefield Trinity Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 13 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:13 pm_

Leeds Rhinos 22–18 Wakefield Trinity in Super League Round 13 at AMT Headingley Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Wakefield Trinity did most things right with the ball. Seven errors to Leeds Rhinos' eleven, the tidier side by some margin, and on paper that should have been enough to keep the scoreboard honest. It wasn't, and the reason sits in the first half hour at Headingley, where Wakefield Trinity fell into a hole too deep to climb out of.

Leeds Rhinos led 22-6 at the break and had done the damage inside 39 minutes. Harry Newman opened the scoring in the 8th minute, Jake Connor crossed in the 21st and kicked his own conversion, and by the 39th minute Connor had added two penalty goals either side of Riley Lumb's try. That's four tries and a bagful of goals from the boot, all before half-time, against a Wakefield Trinity side that managed just the one response through Lachlan Walmsley in the 24th minute.

The final score, 22-18, flatters the chase that followed. Max Jowitt scored twice after the break, in the 49th and 64th minutes, and converted both, dragging Wakefield Trinity to within four points by the 65th minute. It was a proper second-half stand, just not enough of one given the size of the hole.

The line break count tells the story of where the game was actually decided. Leeds Rhinos broke the line four times to Wakefield Trinity's two, and ran for 1,453 metres against 1,222. Wakefield Trinity were competitive everywhere else, edging offloads 7 to 6 and tackle busts 26 to 27, near enough a wash. But territory and line breaks are what turn into points on a scoreboard, and Leeds Rhinos had the better of both.

That's a touch surprising given the positional numbers going in. Wakefield Trinity rated stronger in the forwards, 1,050 to 864, and miles ahead in the halves, 1,441 to 1,258. On buildplay alone you'd back Wakefield Trinity to control the contest. Instead it was Leeds Rhinos' backs, rated well ahead at 1,108 to 942, and a hooker edge that barely needs stating, 1,131 to 600, that showed up where it counted. Connor's night with the boot, a try, three conversions and two penalty goals, is exactly what a strong spine looks like on the scoresheet.

Form lines had Wakefield Trinity as the higher-scoring side coming in, averaging 35.4 points a game to Leeds Rhinos' 21.2, and both sides arrived on the same WLWWW run. None of that form advantage showed up when it mattered. Wakefield Trinity's front-runner reputation was built on outscoring teams, not clawing back from 22-6, and for three quarters of this one they were doing the latter.

Discipline played its part too. Leeds Rhinos conceded just two penalties to Wakefield Trinity's three, and in a match where four points separated the sides at full time, that's not nothing.

Alphr's model had Leeds Rhinos favourites at 63 percent, tipped the margin at 2 points and the total at 40. Final numbers landed at a 4-point margin and a total of exactly 40. Not bad reading for a game that looked done by half-time and nearly wasn't.

**Key Match Stats**

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| **1,453** | Run metres | 1,222 |
| **4** | Line breaks | 2 |
| **27** | Tackle busts | 26 |
| 6 | Offloads | **7** |
| 11 | Errors | **7** |
| **2** | Penalties conceded | 3 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 3 |
| 5/5 | Goals | 3/3 |
| 2 | Penalties Conceded | 3 |
| 11 | Errors | 7 |
| 1 | Sin Bins | 0 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leeds Rhinos to win at 63% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Leeds Rhinos by 2.0 vs the actual margin of 4 points. Total score prediction of 40 was close to the actual 40, within 0 points. The model went 6/15 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (31/100) — penalties Leeds Rhinos 2 · Wakefield Trinity 3.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leeds Rhinos to win — model probability 63.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Leeds Rhinos — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Leeds Rhinos 1-12 — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Leeds Rhinos by 2 · Predicted total: 40

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Leeds Rhinos are the call at 63%, but Wakefield Trinity stay live at 37%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leeds Rhinos sit 46 ELO points clear, 1593 to 1547.

Leeds Rhinos own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Venue Advantage. The margin model has Leeds Rhinos by 2.0, with the two sides combining for about 40. Lean Leeds Rhinos, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 21.2pts | Avg Score | 35.4pts |
| 10.4pts | Avg Conceded | 12.8pts |
| 10.8pts | Avg Margin | 22.6pts |
| 1364.4m | Run Metres | 1240.4m |
| 4.8 | Clean Breaks | 7.6 |
| 299.0 | Tackles | 272.8 |
| 9.6 | Errors | 8.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | R8 W · R9 L · R10 W · R11 W · R12 W | 21.2 |
| Wakefield Trinity | R8 W · R9 L · R10 W · R11 W · R12 W | 35.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wakefield Trinity lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R22 | Wakefield Trinity | 22 – 24 | Leeds Rhinos | Leeds Rhinos 74% ✓ |
| 2026 | R10 | Leeds Rhinos | 40 – 22 | Wakefield Trinity | Leeds Rhinos 78% ✓ |
| 2025 | R20 | Wakefield Trinity | 15 – 14 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |
| 2025 | R1 | Leeds Rhinos | 12 – 14 | Wakefield Trinity | not priced |
| 2023 | R15 | Wakefield Trinity | 24 – 14 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Leeds Rhinos' best path is the right edge: Super League's 1st-ranked right edge attack (1.5 tries/game) runs at a Wakefield Trinity defence ranked 7th there (0.75 conceded/game). Key man: Lumb, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Wakefield Trinity's best path is the middle: Super League's 2nd-ranked middle attack (2.5 tries/game) runs at a Leeds Rhinos defence ranked 3rd there (0.67 conceded/game). Key man: Faatili, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Leeds Rhinos | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.92/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.67/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 0.58/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 1/g (def 7th) |
| Middle | 1.08/g (att 7th) · concedes 0.67/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 2.5/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.83/g (def 5th) |
| Right | 1.5/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.42/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.92/g (att 7th) · concedes 0.75/g (def 7th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 2 | 8 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1.9/g |
| Run Metres | 110m/g | 92m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.8/g | 2.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.1/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94.3% | 91% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 26 · 15 | 18 · 22 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 567m/g | 427m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 17.8/g | 11.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.3/g | 1.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.9% | 82.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 2 | 16 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 327m/g | 342m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.3/g | 5.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 1.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94.1% | 95.7% |

**Who scores on Wakefield Trinity** — Halfbacks 0.23/g (lg 0.14) +64% · Wingers 1.28/g (lg 0.87) +47% · Fullbacks 0.26/g (lg 0.18) +44%
**Who scores on Leeds Rhinos** — Locks 0.05/g (lg 0.04) +25% · Hookers 0.11/g (lg 0.09) +22% · Centres 0.38/g (lg 0.38) +0%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at AMT Headingley Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Leeds Rhinos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lachlan Miller | FB | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 4/17g | 29% | — | — |
| 2 | Riley Lumb | WG | 8 in 12g | 6/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 4/7g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.61 AI 41% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $21.56 AI 17% ✗ Not first | 🏉 32' |
| 3 | Harry Newman | CE | 4 in 12g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 3/6g | 6/17g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.77 AI 27% ✓ Scored | 🏉 8' |
| 4 | Ash Handley | CE | 4 in 12g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 12/16g | 10/14g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.48 AI 30% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Ryan Hall | WG | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·1·0·1·1) | 5/15g | 4/7g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.64 AI 41% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $21.82 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Brodie Croft | 5/8 | 0 in 7g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 6/16g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Jake Connor | HB | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/13g | 2/7g | 12% | — | 🏉 21' |
| 8 | Mikolaj Oledzki | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/15g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Jarrod O'Connor | HK | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/18g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Keenan Palasia | PR | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/6g | 9% | — | — |
| 11 | James Bentley | 2R | 1 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 2/12g | 12% | — | — |
| 12 | James Mcdonnell | 2R | 6 in 12g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·4·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 3/18g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Kallum Watkins | LK | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 7/14g | 1/4g | 20% | — | — |
| 14 | Cam Smith | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Lisone | INT | 3 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 1/2g | 3/16g | 14% | — | — |
| 16 | Tom Holroyd | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 1/9g | 12% | — | — |
| 17 | Cooper Jenkins | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |

**Wakefield Trinity** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Rourke | FB | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 27% | — | — |
| 2 | Lachlan Walmsley | WG | 4 in 7g | 4/7g (0·0·0·0·2·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.88 AI 37% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $23.47 AI 15% ✗ Not first | 🏉 24' |
| 3 | Corey Hall | CE | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 4 | Oliver Pratt | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 5 | Tom Johnstone | WG | 5 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 13/15g | 0/2g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.78 AI 27% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Mason Lino | 5/8 | 3 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/7g | 1/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Max Jowitt | HB | 6 in 9g | 6/10g (0·2·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·1) | 5/8g | 2/1g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.38 AI 31% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $27.01 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 49' 64' |
| 8 | Mike McMeeken | PR | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/21g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Liam Hood | HK | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/1g | 24% | — | — |
| 10 | Caius Faatili | PR | 6 in 12g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·2·2) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 27% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.85 AI 38% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $23.31 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 11 | Seth Nikotemo | 2R | 1 in 5g | 1/5g (0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Josh Griffin | 2R | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 2/16g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 13 | Jay Pitts | LK | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/10g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Cameron Scott | INT | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/4g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| 15 | Isaiah Vagana | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Mathieu Cozza | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Harvey Smith | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Leeds Rhinos 1593 · Wakefield Trinity 1547 · ELO difference: 46 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Leeds Rhinos |

**Model Confidence: 63%** — Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 40 pts

**Record:** 2/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:13 UTC (latest tip update)