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Super League | Round 13

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AMT HEADINGLEY STADIUM • SATURDAY 31 MAY, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
LEE

Leeds Rhinos

2218
WAK

Wakefield Trinity

✅ Model correct — backed Leeds Rhinos at 63%

AI Win Probability

63%Leeds RhinosFavourite

Leeds Rhinos

63%

Wakefield Trinity

37%

AI Match Overview

Leeds Rhinos hold the advantage at 63% win probability, though Wakefield Trinity are far from out of this at 37%. The model sees Leeds Rhinos ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Venue Advantage. Leeds Rhinos carry a 46-point ELO rating advantage (1593 vs 1547). The margin model predicts Leeds Rhinos by 2.0 points with a combined total of 40.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Leeds Rhinos to Win @1.35

Winner ✓

Edge

-10.8%

Line / Spread

Leeds Rhinos +2 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Leeds Rhinos 1-12 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Leeds Rhinos
R8W
R9L
R10W
R11W
R12W

older → newer

21.2
Wakefield Trinity
R8W
R9L
R10W
R11W
R12W
35.4

Avg Conceded

10.4

Leeds Rhinos

12.8

Wakefield Trinity

Avg Margin

10.8

Leeds Rhinos

22.6

Wakefield Trinity

Run Metres

1364

Leeds Rhinos

1240

Wakefield Trinity

Clean Breaks

4.8

Leeds Rhinos

7.6

Wakefield Trinity

H2H History (Last 5)Wakefield Trinity lead 3-2
May 2026LEE 40 - 22 WAK
Jul 2025LEE 14 - 15 WAK
Mar 2025LEE 12 - 14 WAK
Jun 2023LEE 14 - 24 WAK
Mar 2023LEE 26 - 0 WAK
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

LEE
1593Overall1547
WAK
ELO difference: +46 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

864Forwards1050
Best: 1099WAK +186Best: 1380
1108Backs942
Best: 1319LEE +166Best: 1128
1258Halves1441
Best: 1258WAK +183Best: 1441
1131Hooker600
LEE +531

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

LEE
Stat
WAK
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
21.2pts
Avg Score
35.4pts
10.4pts
Avg Conceded
12.8pts
10.8pts
Avg Margin
22.6pts
1364.4m
Run Metres
1240.4m
4.8
Clean Breaks
7.6
299.0
Tackles
272.8
9.6
Errors
8.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Rhinos
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Trinity
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Rhinos
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
5
Halves Control9.0%
Trinity
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Rhinos
7
H2H History6.0%
Rhinos

Model Confidence

63%

Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 2 points

Predicted total: 40 · Line: +2.0

4/4 match predictions correct