# Hull KR v St Helens — Super League Round 13 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hull KR 34 – 4 St Helens

_Hull KR outfox St Helens._

Half time: 28 – 4 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hull KR 77% / St Helens 23% · Sewell Group Craven Park · Fri, 30 May, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Hull KR: Jack Broadbent (5' 1st Tipped ⚡), Peta Hiku (10' Tipped ⚡), Jack Broadbent (32' 1st Tipped ⚡), Mikey Lewis (35'), Elliot Minchella (39'), Mikey Lewis (60') · St Helens: Lewis Murphy (15')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | 77% | Won |
| St Helens | 23% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 10.1 predicted → 30 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hull KR vs St Helens Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 13 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:13 pm_

Hull KR 34–4 St Helens in Super League Round 13 at Sewell Group Craven Park. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had Hull KR winning this one, 77% probability, favourites by 10.1 points on a combined total of 46. Fair read on paper. What turned up was a 34-4 flogging, Hull KR up 28-4 at half-time and never under threat after that. The direction was right. The size of it wasn't close.

Jack Broadbent opened the scoring in the fifth minute, Arthur Mourgue converted, and Hull KR were away. Peta Hiku made it 10-0 in the tenth, and by the 11th it was 12-0 once Mourgue slotted that one too. Lewis Murphy got one back for St Helens in the 15th minute, 12-4, and that's as close as the scoreboard ever looked again. Hull KR scored again through Broadbent in the 32nd minute, then Mikey Lewis and Elliot Minchella both crossed inside four minutes of each other either side of half-time, 22-4 then 26-4, with Mourgue converting to make it 28-4 at the break. Lewis added his second in the 60th minute, converted a minute later, and that was the scoring done. Six tries to one, with Broadbent and Lewis both doubling up.

The stat sheet backs up what the scoreboard says. Hull KR ran for 1,090 metres to St Helens' 736, and turned that into five line breaks against two. Eleven offloads to six meant the ball kept moving when it mattered, and they were the tidier side too, nine errors to St Helens' 13. St Helens actually won the collision count on tackle busts, 32 to 23, but it didn't translate into points. Line breaks are what put the ball down, not busted tackles that go nowhere.

Discipline was the one column St Helens won, conceding six penalties to Hull KR's nine. Didn't count for much when you're down 28 at the break already.

This is where the pre-match numbers get interesting. St Helens went in rated stronger up front, 1047 to 760, and stronger at hooker, 963 to 830. On paper that's a side built to control the middle of the field. On the day none of it showed. Hull KR's edge in the halves, 1121 to 1081, and a near-even backs match-up were enough, and the form lines pointed the same way beforehand: Hull KR averaging 33.4 points a game and conceding just eight, St Helens averaging 24.4 and leaking 15.4. Hull KR arrived on five straight wins, St Helens on two wins from their last five after three losses. That gap showed up in full, and then some.

So the model's win call held up fine, arguably too conservative at 77%. The margin model is where it came unstuck, tipping 10.1 and getting handed 30. St Helens' forward and hooker advantages never turned into field position or points, while Hull KR's efficiency with ball in hand, more metres, more breaks, more offloads, fewer errors, did exactly what the form lines suggested it might against a side conceding close to 16 a game. The model's now 3 from 15 on this one. Wins and misses, all logged.

**Key Match Stats**

| Hull KR | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| **1,090** | Run metres | 736 |
| **5** | Line breaks | 2 |
| 23 | Tackle busts | **32** |
| **11** | Offloads | 6 |
| **9** | Errors | 13 |
| 9 | Penalties conceded | **6** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Hull KR | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 1 |
| 5/6 | Goals | 0/1 |
| 9 | Penalties Conceded | 6 |
| 9 | Errors | 13 |
| 1 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hull KR to win at 77% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 10.1 but the actual margin was 30 points. The model went 3/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (17/100) — penalties Hull KR 9 · St Helens 6.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull KR to win — model probability 77.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hull KR — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hull KR 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hull KR by 10 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Hull KR here: 77% to see off St Helens. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hull KR sit 192 ELO points clear, 1774 to 1582. Form leans Hull KR's way: 5 from their last 5, against 2 for St Helens.

Hull KR own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Halves Control. The margin model has Hull KR by 10.1, with the two sides combining for about 46. Hull KR to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Hull KR | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 33.4pts | Avg Score | 24.4pts |
| 8.0pts | Avg Conceded | 15.4pts |
| 25.4pts | Avg Margin | 9.0pts |
| 1346.6m | Run Metres | 1121.8m |
| 8.2 | Clean Breaks | 5.8 |
| 295.2 | Tackles | 261.8 |
| 10.2 | Errors | 9.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | R8 W · R9 W · R10 W · R11 W · R12 W | 33.4 |
| St Helens | R8 L · R9 L · R10 L · R11 W · R12 W | 24.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Hull KR lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R27 | St Helens | 36 – 12 | Hull KR | St Helens 54% ✓ |
| 2026 | R6 | Hull KR | 52 – 10 | St Helens | Hull KR 52% ✓ |
| 2025 | SF | Hull KR | 20 – 12 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2025 | R24 | Hull KR | 12 – 8 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2025 | R4 | St Helens | 10 – 20 | Hull KR | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Hull KR's best path is the right edge: Super League's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.33 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 2nd there (0.5 conceded/game). Key man: Davies, 7 tries in that channel this season.
- St Helens' best path is the right edge: Super League's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.33 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 2nd there (0.5 conceded/game). Key man: Robertson, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Hull KR | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.42/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.42/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.17/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.5/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.42/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.58/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 2.17/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Right | 1.33/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.33/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 2nd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Hull KR | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 5th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 2 | 12 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 1.2/g |
| Run Metres | 207m/g | 195m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.9/g | 6.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.7/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.6% | 91.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Hull KR | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 34 · 12 | 29 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 1.9/g |
| Run Metres | 568m/g | 460m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.4/g | 18/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.6/g | 3.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.9% | 83.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Hull KR | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 2 | 9 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 288m/g | 334m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.3/g | 9.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94.3% | 93.6% |

**Who scores on St Helens** — Centres 0.33/g (lg 0.37) -11% · Wingers 0.7/g (lg 0.87) -20% · Five-Eighths 0.13/g (lg 0.18) -28%
**Who scores on Hull KR** — Hookers 0.09/g (lg 0.09) +0% · 2nd Rows 0.24/g (lg 0.25) -4% · Fullbacks 0.17/g (lg 0.18) -6%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Sewell Group Craven Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hull KR** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arthur Mourgue | FB | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·2·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/5g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.72 AI 39% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $22.38 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Tom Davies | WG | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (0·1·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·2) | 4/17g | 3/8g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.36 AI 45% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $19.85 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Peta Hiku | CE | 4 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 10/17g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.82 AI 38% ✓ Scored | 🏉 10' |
| 4 | Jack Broadbent | CE | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1) | 1/8g | 6/12g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.86 AI 38% ✓ Scored | 🏉 5' 32' |
| 5 | Joe Burgess | WG | 7 in 9g | 7/10g (0·3·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·1) | 11/16g | 14/15g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.14 AI 50% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $18.26 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Mikey Lewis | 5/8 | 10 in 10g | 10/10g (0·1·1·2·3·0·1·0·1·1) | 6/10g | 20/37g | 58% | — | 🏉 35' 60' |
| 7 | Tyrone May | HB | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/6g | 5/18g | 20% | — | — |
| 8 | Sauaso Sue | PR | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 4/25g | 18% | — | — |
| 9 | Jez Litten | HK | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 3/11g | 6/42g | 24% | — | — |
| 10 | Jai Whitbread | PR | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 3/19g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Kelepi Tanginoa | 2R | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/8g | 7/19g | 28% | — | — |
| 12 | James Batchelor | 2R | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 0/12g | 10/28g | 20% | — | — |
| 13 | Elliot Minchella | LK | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 3/40g | 8% | — | 🏉 39' |
| 14 | Sam Luckley | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/30g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Jack Brown | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/9g | 1/14g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Eribe Doro | INT | 0 in 4g | 1/8g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 13% | — | — |
| 17 | Bill Leyland | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Welsby | FB | 6 in 12g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·3) | 6/11g | 1/3g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.08 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Tristan Sailor | WG | 9 in 12g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.87 AI 37% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $23.40 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Mark Percival | CE | 3 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 0/3g | 24% | — | — |
| 4 | Deon Cross | CE | 1 in 7g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/8g | 1/4g | 26% | — | — |
| 5 | Lewis Murphy | WG | 4 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 3/3g | 2/2g | 49% | — | 🏉 15' |
| 6 | George Whitby | 5/8 | 3 in 6g | 3/6g (0·0·0·0·3·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| 7 | Jonny Lomax | HB | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 1/3g | 26% | — | — |
| 8 | Alex Walmsley | PR | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/11g | 1/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Daryl Clark | HK | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/17g | 0/3g | 18% | — | — |
| 10 | Matty Lees | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Curtis Sironen | 2R | 4 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Matt Whitley | 2R | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0) | 5/17g | 0/3g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Morgan Knowles | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Moses Mbye | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Agnatius Paasi | INT | 2 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 16 | George Delaney | INT | 1 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Harry Robertson | INT | 6 in 7g | 6/7g (2·2·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 57% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.00 AI 36% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $24.31 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Hull KR 1774 · St Helens 1582 · ELO difference: 192 in favour of Hull KR

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Hull KR |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | St Helens |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | St Helens |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Hull KR |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Hull KR |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Hull KR |

**Model Confidence: 77%** — Hull KR predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:13 UTC (latest tip update)