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Super League | Round 13

alphr.com.au

SEWELL GROUP CRAVEN PARK • FRIDAY 30 MAY, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
HKR

Hull KR

344
STH

St Helens

✅ Model correct — backed Hull KR at 77%

AI Win Probability

77%Hull KRFavourite

Hull KR

77%

St Helens

23%

AI Match Overview

Hull KR are clear favourites here at 77%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over St Helens. The model sees Hull KR ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Halves Control. Hull KR carry a 192-point ELO rating advantage (1774 vs 1582). Recent form favours Hull KR with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for St Helens. The margin model predicts Hull KR by 10.1 points with a combined total of 46.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Hull KR to Win @1.50

Winner ✓

Edge

+10.5%

Line / Spread

Hull KR +10.1 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Hull KR 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Hull KR
R8W
R9W
R10W
R11W
R12W

older → newer

33.4
St Helens
R8L
R9L
R10L
R11W
R12W
24.4

Avg Conceded

8.0

Hull KR

15.4

St Helens

Avg Margin

25.4

Hull KR

9.0

St Helens

Run Metres

1347

Hull KR

1122

St Helens

Clean Breaks

8.2

Hull KR

5.8

St Helens

H2H History (Last 5)Hull KR lead 5-0
Apr 2026HKR 52 - 10 STH
Oct 2025HKR 20 - 12 STH
Aug 2025HKR 12 - 8 STH
Mar 2025HKR 20 - 10 STH
Feb 2024HKR 40 - 20 STH
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

HKR
1774Overall1582
STH
ELO difference: +192 in favour of Hull KR

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

760Forwards1047
Best: 983STH +287Best: 1422
1149Backs1217
Best: 1265STH +67Best: 1396
1121Halves1081
Best: 1121HKR +40Best: 1081
830Hooker963
STH +133

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HKR
Stat
STH
5.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
33.4pts
Avg Score
24.4pts
8.0pts
Avg Conceded
15.4pts
25.4pts
Avg Margin
9.0pts
1346.6m
Run Metres
1121.8m
8.2
Clean Breaks
5.8
295.2
Tackles
261.8
10.2
Errors
9.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
KR
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Helens
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Helens
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
KR
5
Halves Control9.0%
KR
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
KR
7
H2H History6.0%
KR

Model Confidence

77%

Hull KR predicted to win by 10 points

Predicted total: 46 · Line: +10.1

2/4 match predictions correct