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Super League | Round 13

alphr.com.au

JOHN SMITH'S STADIUM • THURSDAY 29 MAY, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
HUD

Huddersfield Giants

2428
LEI

Leigh Leopards

✅ Model correct — backed Leigh Leopards at 69%

AI Win Probability

69%Leigh LeopardsFavourite

Huddersfield Giants

31%

Leigh Leopards

69%

AI Match Overview

Leigh Leopards are clear favourites here at 69%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Huddersfield Giants. The model sees Leigh Leopards ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Leigh Leopards carry a 292-point ELO rating advantage (1540 vs 1248). Recent form favours Leigh Leopards with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Huddersfield Giants. The margin model predicts Leigh Leopards by 2.4 points with a combined total of 39.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Leigh Leopards to Win @1.35

Winner ✓

Edge

-4.7%

Line / Spread

Leigh Leopards -2.4 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Leigh Leopards 1-12 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Huddersfield Giants
R8L
R9L
R10W
R11L
R12L

older → newer

6.8
Leigh Leopards
R8W
R9W
R10W
R11L
R12L
22.4

Avg Conceded

29.6

Huddersfield Giants

21.2

Leigh Leopards

Avg Margin

-22.8

Huddersfield Giants

1.2

Leigh Leopards

Run Metres

898

Huddersfield Giants

1224

Leigh Leopards

Clean Breaks

1.4

Huddersfield Giants

5.2

Leigh Leopards

H2H History (Last 5)Leigh Leopards lead 5-0
May 2026HUD 16 - 30 LEI
Sep 2025HUD 16 - 30 LEI
Mar 2025HUD 10 - 24 LEI
Feb 2024HUD 10 - 16 LEI
Jul 2024HUD 16 - 20 LEI
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

HUD
1248Overall1540
LEI
ELO difference: -292 in favour of Leigh Leopards

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

793Forwards904
Best: 1055LEI +111Best: 1137
700Backs741
Best: 733LEI +41Best: 835
800Halves789
Best: 800HUD +11Best: 789
677Hooker945
LEI +267

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HUD
Stat
LEI
1.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
6.8pts
Avg Score
22.4pts
29.6pts
Avg Conceded
21.2pts
-22.8pts
Avg Margin
1.2pts
898.4m
Run Metres
1224.4m
1.4
Clean Breaks
5.2
278.6
Tackles
297.8
10.6
Errors
8.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Leopards
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Leopards
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Leopards
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Leopards
5
Halves Control9.0%
Giants
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Leopards
7
H2H History6.0%
Leopards

Model Confidence

69%

Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 2 points

Predicted total: 39 · Line: -2.4

3/4 match predictions correct