# Catalans Dragons v Hull FC — Super League Round 13 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Catalans Dragons 0 – 34 Hull FC

_Hull FC run riot over Catalans Dragons._

Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Catalans Dragons 36% / Hull FC 64% · Stade Gilbert Brutus · Sat, 31 May, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Catalans Dragons: none · Hull FC: Herman Ese'ese (9' 1st Tipped 🎯), Lewis Martin (17' Tipped ⚡), Will Pryce (39' Tipped ⚡), Davy Litten (53'), Will Pryce (62' Tipped ⚡), Tom Briscoe (66')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull FC | 64% | Won |
| Catalans Dragons | 36% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.3 predicted → 34 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Catalans Dragons vs Hull FC Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 13 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:13 pm_

Catalans Dragons 0–34 Hull FC in Super League Round 13 at Stade Gilbert Brutus. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Hull FC overran Catalans Dragons 34–0 at Stade Gilbert Brutus.

Herman Ese'ese opened the scoring; Hull FC scored through Herman Ese'ese, Lewis Martin, Will Pryce (2), Davy Litten and Tom Briscoe.

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hull FC to win at 64% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.3 but the actual margin was 34 points. The model went 5/15 on this match.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull FC to win — model probability 63.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hull FC — model probability 63.9% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hull FC 1-12 — model probability 63.9% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hull FC by 7 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Hull FC are the call at 64%, but Catalans Dragons stay live at 36%. Form leans Catalans Dragons' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Hull FC.

On paper Catalans Dragons shade it, ahead on 5 of 7 factors including Backline Quality, Recent Win Rate and Halves Control. The model still sides with Hull FC, which says Forward Pack carry the most weight. The margin model has Hull FC by 7.3, with the two sides combining for about 43. Lean Hull FC, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 17.2pts | Avg Score | 15.6pts |
| 28.8pts | Avg Conceded | 21.2pts |
| -11.6pts | Avg Margin | -5.6pts |
| 670.2m | Run Metres | 1050.0m |
| 2.4 | Clean Breaks | 3.6 |
| 183.2 | Tackles | 301.4 |
| 6.4 | Errors | 9.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Catalans Dragons | R8 W · R9 W · R10 L · R11 L · R12 L | 17.2 |
| Hull FC | R8 L · R9 L · R10 L · R11 L · R12 W | 15.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Hull FC lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R24 | Catalans Dragons | 26 – 27 | Hull FC | Catalans Dragons 61% ✗ |
| 2026 | R6 | Hull FC | 24 – 20 | Catalans Dragons | Hull FC 54% ✓ |
| 2025 | R27 | Hull FC | 22 – 26 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |
| 2025 | R1 | Catalans Dragons | 4 – 24 | Hull FC | not priced |
| 2024 | R27 | Hull FC | 4 – 24 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Catalans Dragons' best path is the middle: Super League's 10th-ranked middle attack (0.75 tries/game) runs at a Hull defence ranked 8th there (1.58 conceded/game). Key man: Satae, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Hull's best path is the left edge: Super League's 7th-ranked left edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Catalans Dragons defence ranked 9th there (1.17 conceded/game). Key man: Martin, 8 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Catalans Dragons | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.33/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 1.17/g (def 9th (weak)) | 1/g (att 7th) · concedes 1/g (def 7th) |
| Middle | 0.75/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 1.67/g (def 9th (weak)) | 1.25/g (att 5th) · concedes 1.58/g (def 8th) |
| Right | 0.42/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 0.58/g (def 5th) | 0.75/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.75/g (def 7th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 15 | 4 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 21m/g | 140m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 0.7/g | 5.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.1/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.2% | 89.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 9th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 15 | 19 · 25 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 389m/g | 366m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 12.9/g | 9/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.6/g | 1.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.6% | 77.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 5th |
| Defence rank | 9th (weak) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 9 | 8 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 162m/g | 373m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 1.9/g | 9.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.2% | 90.9% |

**Who scores on Hull** — Fullbacks 0.29/g (lg 0.18) +61% · Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.09) +56% · Five-Eighths 0.26/g (lg 0.18) +44%
**Who scores on Catalans Dragons** — Locks 0.06/g (lg 0.04) +50% · Hookers 0.12/g (lg 0.09) +33% · Five-Eighths 0.22/g (lg 0.18) +22%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Stade Gilbert Brutus. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Catalans Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reimis Smith | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Tommy Makinson | WG | 3 in 8g | 6/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·3·0) | 7/10g | 5/9g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.52 AI 43% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $20.93 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Matthieu Laguerre | CE | 4 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/4g | 3/15g | 21% | — | — |
| 4 | Nick Cotric | CE | 1 in 9g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/4g | 11% | — | — |
| 5 | Fouad Yaha | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.81 AI 38% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $22.97 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Theo Fages | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Luke Keary | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Chris Satae | PR | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/20g | 12% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.69 AI 28% ✗ No try | — |
| 9 | Alrix Da Costa | HK | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 2/36g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Romain Navarrete | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/31g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Ben Garcia | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Oliver Partington | 2R | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/10g | 6% | — | — |
| 13 | Cesar Rouge | LK | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/18g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Arthur Romano | INT | 0 in 8g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 8/33g | 16% | — | — |
| 15 | Franck Maria | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Jordan Dezaria | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/34g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Paul Seguier | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Hull** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Pryce | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 39' 62' |
| 2 | Harvey Barron | WG | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.10 AI 34% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Tom Briscoe | CE | 5 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·2·1·0·0·0·0) | 8/16g | 4/6g | 28% | — | 🏉 66' |
| 4 | Davy Litten | CE | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 15% | — | 🏉 53' |
| 5 | Lewis Martin | WG | 8 in 12g | 7/10g (1·1·1·1·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 2/4g | 1/3g | 51% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.84 AI 38% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $23.18 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 17' |
| 6 | Jordan Rapana | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Aidan Sezer | HB | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 2/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Herman Ese'ese | PR | 6 in 12g | 6/10g (0·1·1·1·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.06 AI 51% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $17.67 AI 18% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 9' |
| 9 | Amir Bourouh | HK | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Liam Knight | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Zak Hardaker | 2R | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/20g | 0/9g | 12% | — | — |
| 12 | Ed Chamberlain | 2R | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 2/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 13 | Yusuf Aydin | LK | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 1/6g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Denive Balmforth | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Eseh | INT | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 9% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.89 AI 37% ✗ No try | — |
| 16 | Matty Laidlaw | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Jack Ashworth | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Catalans Dragons 1437 · Hull FC 1429 · ELO difference: 7 in favour of Catalans Dragons

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | — |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Hull FC |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Catalans Dragons |

**Model Confidence: 64%** — Hull FC predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:13 UTC (latest tip update)